Estimating COVID-19 cases and deaths prevented by non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the impact of individual actions: A retrospective model-based analysis

Abdollahi, 2020, Temporal estimates of case-fatality rate for COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada and the United States, Cmaj, 192, E666, 10.1503/cmaj.200711 Abdollahi, 2020, Simulating the effect of school closure during COVID-19 outbreaks in Ontario, Canada, BMC Med., 18, 1, 10.1186/s12916-020-01705-8 Arino, 2020, A simple model for COVID-19, Infect. Dis. Model., 5, 309 Brauner, 2021, Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19, Science, 371, 10.1126/science.abd9338 Bravata, 2021, Association of intensive care unit patient load and demand with mortality rates in US Department of Veterans Affairs hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic, JAMA Netw. Open, 4, e2034266, 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.34266 Claeson, 2021, COVID-19 and the Swedish enigma, Lancet, 397, 259, 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32750-1 Fisman, 2020, Risk factors associated with mortality among residents with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in long-term care facilities in Ontario, Canada, JAMA Netw. Open, 3, e2015957, 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.15957 Gardner, 2020, The coronavirus and the risks to the elderly in long-term care, J. Aging Soc. Policy, 32, 310, 10.1080/08959420.2020.1750543 2021 2021 Hale, 2021, A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker), Nat. Hum. Behav., 1 Halloran, 2008, Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 105, 4639, 10.1073/pnas.0706849105 Hellewell, 2020, Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts, Lancet Glob. Health, 8, e488, 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30074-7 Jentsch, 2021, Prioritising COVID-19 vaccination in changing social and epidemiological landscapes: a mathematical modelling study, Lancet Infect. Dis., 10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00057-8 Johnson, 2020 Karatayev, 2020, Local lockdowns outperform global lockdown on the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 117, 24575, 10.1073/pnas.2014385117 Li, 2021, The temporal association of introducing and lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions with the time-varying reproduction number (R) of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study across 131 countries, Lancet Infect. Dis., 21, 193, 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30785-4 Li, 2016, Stimulating influenza vaccination via prosocial motives, PLoS One, 11, 10.1371/journal.pone.0159780 Magli, 2020 Moyles, 2021, Cost and social distancing dynamics in a mathematical model of COVID-19 with application to Ontario, Canada, R. Soc. Open Sci., 8, 10.1098/rsos.201770 2021 2021 2021 2021 Oraby, 2014, The influence of social norms on the dynamics of vaccinating behaviour for paediatric infectious diseases, Proc. R. Soc. B, 281, 10.1098/rspb.2013.3172 Peak, 2020, Individual quarantine versus active monitoring of contacts for the mitigation of COVID-19: a modelling study, Lancet Infect. Dis., 20, 1025, 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30361-3 Phillips, 2020, Spatial early warning signals of social and epidemiological tipping points in a coupled behaviour-disease network, Sci. Rep., 10, 1, 10.1038/s41598-020-63849-0 Powell, 1994, A direct search optimization method that models the objective and constraint functions by linear interpolation, 51 2020 Reluga, 2010, Game theory of social distancing in response to an epidemic, PLoS Comput. Biol., 6, 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000793 2020 Runarsson, 2005, Search biases in constrained evolutionary optimization, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. C, 35, 233, 10.1109/TSMCC.2004.841906 2016 2017 Tang, 2020, De-escalation by reversing the escalation with a stronger synergistic package of contact tracing, quarantine, isolation and personal protection: feasibility of preventing a COVID-19 rebound in Ontario, Canada, as a case study, Biology, 9, 100, 10.3390/biology9050100 Tuite, 2020, Mathematical modelling of COVID-19 transmission and mitigation strategies in the population of Ontario, Canada, CMAJ, 192, E497, 10.1503/cmaj.200476 Tuite, 2020, Risk for COVID-19 resurgence related to duration and effectiveness of physical distancing in Ontario, Canada, Ann. Intern. Med., 173, 675, 10.7326/M20-2945