Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature

BMC Infectious Diseases - Tập 14 Số 1 - 2014
Matthew Biggerstaff1, Simon Cauchemez2, Carrie Reed1, Manoj Gambhir3, Lyn Finelli1
1Epidemiology and Prevention Branch, Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
2Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
3National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, CDC, Atlanta, Georgia

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Cox NJ, Subbarao K: Global epidemiology of influenza: past and present. Annu Rev Med. 2000, 51: 407-421.

Sullivan KM, Monto AS, Longini IM: Estimates of the US health impact of influenza. Am J Public Health. 1993, 83 (12): 1712-1716.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Estimates of deaths associated with seasonal influenza --- United States, 1976–2007. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2010, 59 (33): 1057-1062.

Jhung MA, Swerdlow D, Olsen SJ, Jernigan D, Biggerstaff M, Kamimoto L, Kniss K, Reed C, Fry A, Brammer L, Gindler J, Gregg WJ, Bresee J, Finelli L: Epidemiology of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in the United States. Clin Infect Dis. 2011, 52 (Suppl 1): S13-S26.

Reed C, Biggerstaff M, Finelli L, Koonin LM, Beauvais D, Uzicanin A, Plummer A, Bresee J, Redd SC, Jernigan DB: Novel framework for assessing epidemiologic effects of influenza epidemics and pandemics. Emerg Infect Dis. 2013, 19 (1): 85-91.

Anderson RM, May RM: Infectious diseases of humans : dynamics and control. Oxford. 1991, New York: Oxford University Press

Heffernan JM, Smith RJ, Wahl LM: Perspectives on the basic reproductive ratio. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface / the Royal Society. 2005, 2 (4): 281-293.

Li J, Blakeley D, Smith RJ: The failure of R0. Computational and mathematical methods in medicine. 2011, 2011: 527610-

Boelle PY, Ansart S, Cori A, Valleron AJ: Transmission parameters of the A/H1N1 (2009) influenza virus pandemic: a review. Influenza Other Respi Viruses. 2011, 5 (5): 306-316.

Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Fraser C, Cajka JC, Cooley PC, Burke DS: Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature. 2006, 442 (7101): 448-452.

Yang Y, Sugimoto JD, Halloran ME, Basta NE, Chao DL, Matrajt L, Potter G, Kenah E, Longini IM: The transmissibility and control of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus. Science (New York, NY). 2009, 326 (5953): 729-733.

Fine PE: Herd immunity: history, theory, practice. Epidemiol Rev. 1993, 15 (2): 265-302.

Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, Ferguson NM: Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2004, 101 (16): 6146-6151.

Wallinga J, Lipsitch M: How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers. Proc Biol Sci. 2007, 274 (1609): 599-604.

Caley P, Philp DJ, McCracken K: Quantifying social distancing arising from pandemic influenza. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface / the Royal Society. 2008, 5 (23): 631-639.

Massad E, Burattini MN, Coutinho FA, Lopez LF: The 1918 influenza A epidemic in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Med Hypotheses. 2007, 68 (2): 442-445.

Sattenspiel L: Regional patterns of mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic in Newfoundland. Vaccine. 2011, 29 (Suppl 2): B33-B37.

Chowell G, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Acuna-Soto R, Diaz JM, Martinez-Martin AF: The 1918–19 influenza pandemic in Boyaca, Colombia. Emerg Infect Dis. 2012, 18 (1): 48-56.

Andreasen V, Viboud C, Simonsen L: Epidemiologic characterization of the 1918 influenza pandemic summer wave in Copenhagen: implications for pandemic control strategies. J Infect Dis. 2008, 197 (2): 270-278.

Rizzo C, Ajelli M, Merler S, Pugliese A, Barbetta I, Salmaso S, Manfredi P: Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the 1918–19 pandemic influenza in Florence, Italy. Vaccine. 2011, 29 (Suppl 2): B27-B32.

Chowell G, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Acuna-Soto R: Mortality patterns associated with the 1918 influenza pandemic in Mexico: evidence for a spring herald wave and lack of preexisting immunity in older populations. J Infect Dis. 2010, 202 (4): 567-575.

Chowell G, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Hurtado J, Soto G, Vargas R, Guzman MA, Ulloa M, Munayco CV: The 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Peru. Vaccine. 2011, 29 (Suppl 2): B21-B26.

Chowell G, Ammon CE, Hengartner NW, Hyman JM: Estimation of the reproductive number of the Spanish flu epidemic in Geneva, Switzerland. Vaccine. 2006, 24 (44–46): 6747-6750.

Rios-Doria D, Chowell G: Qualitative analysis of the level of cross-protection between epidemic waves of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic. J Theor Biol. 2009, 261 (4): 584-592.

Viboud C, Tam T, Fleming D, Handel A, Miller MA, Simonsen L: Transmissibility and mortality impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza, with emphasis on the unusually deadly 1951 epidemic. Vaccine. 2006, 24 (44–46): 6701-6707.

Gani R, Hughes H, Fleming D, Griffin T, Medlock J, Leach S: Potential impact of antiviral drug use during influenza pandemic. Emerg Infect Dis. 2005, 11 (9): 1355-1362.

Mathews JD, McBryde ES, McVernon J, Pallaghy PK, McCaw JM: Prior immunity helps to explain wave-like behaviour of pandemic influenza in 1918–9. BMC Infect Dis. 2010, 10: 128-

White LF, Pagano M: Transmissibility of the influenza virus in the 1918 pandemic. PLoS One. 2008, 3 (1): e1498-

Vynnycky E, Trindall A, Mangtani P: Estimates of the reproduction numbers of Spanish influenza using morbidity data. Int J Epidemiol. 2007, 36 (4): 881-889.

Zhang S, Yan P, Winchester B, Wang J: Transmissibility of the 1918 pandemic influenza in Montreal and Winnipeg of Canada. Influenza Other Respi Viruses. 2010, 4 (1): 27-31.

Nishiura H: Time variations in the transmissibility of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918–19. Theor Biol Med Model. 2007, 4: 20-

Sertsou G, Wilson N, Baker M, Nelson P, Roberts MG: Key transmission parameters of an institutional outbreak during the 1918 influenza pandemic estimated by mathematical modelling. Theor Biol Med Model. 2006, 3: 38-

Chowell G, Bettencourt LM, Johnson N, Alonso WJ, Viboud C: The 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in England and Wales: spatial patterns in transmissibility and mortality impact. Proc Biol Sci. 2008, 275 (1634): 501-509.

Goldstein E, Dushoff J, Ma J, Plotkin JB, Earn DJ, Lipsitch M: Reconstructing influenza incidence by deconvolution of daily mortality time series. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009, 106 (51): 21825-21829.

Chowell G, Nishiura H, Bettencourt LM: Comparative estimation of the reproduction number for pandemic influenza from daily case notification data. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface / the Royal Society. 2007, 4 (12): 155-166.

Mills CE, Robins JM, Lipsitch M: Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza. Nature. 2004, 432 (7019): 904-906.

Glezen WP: Emerging infections: pandemic influenza. Epidemiol Rev. 1996, 18 (1): 64-76.

Nishiura H: Time variations in the generation time of an infectious disease: implications for sampling to appropriately quantify transmission potential. Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE. 2010, 7 (4): 851-869.

Vynnycky E, Edmunds WJ: Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures. Epidemiol Infect. 2008, 136 (2): 166-179.

Longini IM, Halloran ME, Nizam A, Yang Y: Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. Am J Epidemiol. 2004, 159 (7): 623-633.

Langmuir AD: Epidemiology of Asian influenza. With special emphasis on the United States. Am Rev Respir Dis. 1961, 83 (2): 2-14. Pt 2

Longini IM, Fine PE, Thacker SB: Predicting the global spread of new infectious agents. Am J Epidemiol. 1986, 123 (3): 383-391.

Jackson C, Vynnycky E, Mangtani P: Estimates of the transmissibility of the 1968 (Hong Kong) influenza pandemic: evidence of increased transmissibility between successive waves. Am J Epidemiol. 2010, 171 (4): 465-478.

Hsieh YH, Ma S, Velasco Hernandez JX, Lee VJ, Lim WY: Early outbreak of 2009 influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico prior to identification of pH1N1 virus. PLoS One. 2011, 6 (8): e23853-

Kelly HA, Mercer GN, Fielding JE, Dowse GK, Glass K, Carcione D, Grant KA, Effler PV, Lester RA: Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza community transmission was established in one Australian state when the virus was first identified in North America. PLoS One. 2010, 5 (6): e11341-

McBryde E, Bergeri I, van Gemert C, Rotty J, Headley E, Simpson K, Lester R, Hellard M, Fielding J: Early transmission characteristics of influenza A(H1N1)v in Australia: Victorian state, 16 May - 3 June 2009. Euro Surveill. 2009, 14 (42):

Buckley D, Bulger D: Estimation of the reproductive number for the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza in rural and metropolitan New South Wales. The Australian journal of rural health. 2011, 19 (2): 59-63.

Hsieh YH, Fisman DN, Wu J: On epidemic modeling in real time: an application to the 2009 novel A (H1N1) influenza outbreak in Canada. BMC research notes. 2010, 3: 283-

Mostaco-Guidolin LC, Bowman CS, Greer AL, Fisman DN, Moghadas SM: Transmissibility of the: H1N1 pandemic in remote and isolated Canadian communities: a modelling study. BMJ open. 2009, 2012: 2(5)-

Tuite AR, Greer AL, Whelan M, Winter AL, Lee B, Yan P, Wu J, Moghadas S, Buckeridge D, Pourbohloul B, Fisman DN: Estimated epidemiologic parameters and morbidity associated with pandemic H1N1 influenza. CMAJ. 2010, 182 (2): 131-136.

Pedroni E, Garcia M, Espinola V, Guerrero A, Gonzalez C, Olea A, Calvo M, Martorell B, Winkler M, Carrasco M, Vergara J, Ulloa J, Carrazana A, Mujica O, Villarroel J, Labrana M, Vargas M, Gonzalez P, Caceres L, Zamorano C, Momberg R, Munoz G, Rocco J, Bosque V, Gallardo A, Elgueta J, Vega J, Chilean Task Force for study of Pandemic Influenza A: Outbreak of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1), Los Lagos, Chile, April-June 2009. Euro Surveill. 2010, 15 (1):

Chowell G, Towers S, Viboud C, Fuentes R, Sotomayor V, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Lima M, Villarroel C, Chiu M, Villarroel JE, Olea A, Villarroel JE, Olea A: The influence of climatic conditions on the transmission dynamics of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile. BMC Infect Dis. 2012, 12: 298-

Yu H, Cauchemez S, Donnelly CA, Zhou L, Feng L, Xiang N, Zheng J, Ye M, Huai Y, Liao Q, Peng Z, Feng Y, Jiang H, Yang W, Wang Y, Ferguson NM, Feng Z: Transmission dynamics, border entry screening, and school holidays during the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic. China Emerg Infect Dis. 2012, 18 (5): 758-766.

Tan X, Yuan L, Zhou J, Zheng Y, Yang F: Modeling the initial transmission dynamics of influenza A H1N1 in Guangdong Province, China. International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases. 2012

Jin Z, Zhang J, Song LP, Sun GQ, Kan J, Zhu H: Modelling and analysis of influenza A (H1N1) on networks. BMC Public Health. 2011, 11 (Suppl 1): S9-

Wu JT, Cowling BJ, Lau EH, Ip DK, Ho LM, Tsang T, Chuang SK, Leung PY, Lo SV, Liu SH, Riley S: School closure and mitigation of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Hong Kong. Emerg Infect Dis. 2010, 16 (3): 538-541.

Cowling BJ, Lau MS, Ho LM, Chuang SK, Tsang T, Liu SH, Leung PY, Lo SV, Lau EH: The effective reproduction number of pandemic influenza: prospective estimation. Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass). 2010, 21 (6): 842-846.

Katriel G, Yaari R, Huppert A, Roll U, Stone L: Modelling the initial phase of an epidemic using incidence and infection network data: 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Israel as a case study. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface / the Royal Society. 2011, 8 (59): 856-867.

Dorigatti I, Cauchemez S, Pugliese A, Ferguson NM: A new approach to characterising infectious disease transmission dynamics from sentinel surveillance: application to the Italian 2009–2010 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic. Epidemics. 2012, 4 (1): 9-21.

Nishiura H, Castillo-Chavez C, Safan M, Chowell G: Transmission potential of the new influenza A(H1N1) virus and its age-specificity in Japan. Euro Surveill. 2009, 14 (22):

Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Cauchemez S, Hanage WP, Van Kerkhove MD, Hollingsworth TD, Griffin J, Baggaley RF, Jenkins HE, Lyons EJ, Jombart T, Hinsley WR, Grassly NC, Balloux F, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, Rambaut A, Pybus OG, Lopez-Gatell H, Alpuche-Aranda CM, Chapela IB, Zavala EP, Guevara DM, Checchi F, Garcia E, Hugonnet S, Roth C, WHO Rapid Pandemic Assessment Collaboration: Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): early findings. Science (New York, NY). 2009, 324 (5934): 1557-1561.

White LF, Pagano M: Reporting errors in infectious disease outbreaks, with an application to Pandemic Influenza A/H1N1. Epidemiologic perspectives & innovations : EP+I. 2010, 7: 12-

Chowell G, Echevarria-Zuno S, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Tamerius J, Miller MA, Borja-Aburto VH: Characterizing the epidemiology of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico. PLoS Med. 2011, 8 (5): e1000436-

Pourbohloul B, Ahued A, Davoudi B, Meza R, Meyers LA, Skowronski DM, Villasenor I, Galvan F, Cravioto P, Earn DJ, Dushoff J, Fisman D, Edmunds WJ, Hupert N, Scarpino SV, Trujillo J, Lutzow M, Morales J, Contreras A, Chávez C, Patrick DM, Brunham RC: Initial human transmission dynamics of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in North America. Influenza Other Respi Viruses. 2009, 3 (5): 215-222.

Boelle PY, Bernillon P, Desenclos JC: A preliminary estimation of the reproduction ratio for new influenza A(H1N1) from the outbreak in Mexico, March-April 2009. Euro Surveill. 2009, 14 (19):

Balcan D, Hu H, Goncalves B, Bajardi P, Poletto C, Ramasco JJ, Paolotti D, Perra N, Tizzoni M, Van den Broeck W, Colizza V, Vespignani A: Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility. BMC medicine. 2009, 7: 45-

Cruz-Pacheco G, Duran L, Esteva L, Minzoni A, Lopez-Cervantes M, Panayotaros P, Ahued Ortega A, Villasenor Ruiz I: Modelling of the influenza A(H1N1)v outbreak in Mexico City, April-May 2009, with control sanitary measures. Euro Surveill. 2009, 14 (26):

Barakat A, Ihazmad H, El Falaki F, Tempia S, Cherkaoui I, El Aouad R: Pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 in Morocco, 2009–2010: epidemiology, transmissibility, and factors associated with fatal cases. J Infect Dis. 2009, 2012 (206 Suppl 1): S94-S100.

Hahne S, Donker T, Meijer A, Timen A, van Steenbergen J, Osterhaus A, van der Sande M, Koopmans M, Wallinga J, Coutinho R, Dutch New Influenza A(H1N1)v Investigation Team: Epidemiology and control of influenza A(H1N1)v in the Netherlands: the first 115 cases. Euro Surveill. 2009, 14 (27):

Roberts MG, Nishiura H: Early estimation of the reproduction number in the presence of imported cases: pandemic influenza H1N1-2009 in New Zealand. PLoS One. 2011, 6 (5): e17835-

Nishiura H, Wilson N, Baker MG: Estimating the reproduction number of the novel influenza A virus (H1N1) in a Southern Hemisphere setting: preliminary estimate in New Zealand. The New Zealand medical journal. 2009, 122 (1299): 73-77.

Paine S, Mercer GN, Kelly PM, Bandaranayake D, Baker MG, Huang QS, Mackereth G, Bissielo A, Glass K, Hope V: Transmissibility of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in New Zealand: effective reproduction number and influence of age, ethnicity and importations. Euro Surveill. 2010, 15 (24):

Lessler J, dos Santos T, Aguilera X, Brookmeyer R, Group PITW, Cummings DA: H1N1pdm in the Americas. Epidemics. 2010, 2 (3): 132-138.

Munayco CV, Gomez J, Laguna-Torres VA, Arrasco J, Kochel TJ, Fiestas V, Garcia J, Perez J, Torres I, Condori F, Nishiura H, Chowell G: and transmissibility analysis of influenza A(H1N1)v in a southern hemisphere setting: Peru Euro Surveill. 2009, 14 (32):

Chowell G, Viboud C, Munayco CV, Gomez J, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Tamerius J, Fiestas V, Halsey ES, Laguna-Torres VA: Spatial and temporal characteristics of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Peru. PLoS One. 2011, 6 (6): e21287-

Chan PP, Subramony H, Lai FY, Tien WS, Tan BH, Solhan S, Han HK, Foong BH, James L, Ooi PL: Outbreak of novel influenza A (H1N1-2009) linked to a dance club. Ann Acad Med Singap. 2010, 39 (4): 299-294.

Lee VJ, Yap J, Cook AR, Chen MI, Tay JK, Tan BH, Loh JP, Chew SW, Koh WH, Lin R, Cui L, Lee CW, Sung WK, Wong CW, Hibberd ML, Kang WL, Seet B, Tambyah PA: Oseltamivir ring prophylaxis for containment of 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreaks. N Engl J Med. 2010, 362 (23): 2166-2174.

Archer BN, Tempia S, White LF, Pagano M, Cohen C: Reproductive number and serial interval of the first wave of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in South Africa. PLoS One. 2012, 7 (11): e49482-

Hsieh YH: Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) during winter influenza season in the southern hemisphere. Influenza Other Respi Viruses. 2010, 4 (4): 187-197.

Opatowski L, Fraser C, Griffin J, de Silva E, Van Kerkhove MD, Lyons EJ, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM: Transmission characteristics of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: comparison of 8 Southern hemisphere countries. PLoS Pathog. 2011, 7 (9): e1002225-

Hsieh YH, Cheng KF, Wu TN, Li TC, Chen CY, Chen JH, Lin MH, Center for Infectious E: Transmissibility and temporal changes of 2009 pH1N1 pandemic during summer and fall/winter waves. BMC Infect Dis. 2011, 11: 332-

Chao DY, Cheng KF, Li TC, Wu TN, Chen CY, Tsai CA, Chen JH, Chiu HT, Lu JJ, Su MC, Liao YH, Chan WC, Hsieh YH: Serological evidence of subclinical transmission of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus outside of Mexico. PLoS One. 2011, 6 (1): e14555-

de Silva UC, Warachit J, Waicharoen S, Chittaganpitch M: A preliminary analysis of the epidemiology of influenza A(H1N1)v virus infection in Thailand from early outbreak data, June-July 2009. Euro Surveill. 2009, 14 (31):

Hens N, Calatayud L, Kurkela S, Tamme T, Wallinga J: Robust reconstruction and analysis of outbreak data: influenza A(H1N1)v transmission in a school-based population. Am J Epidemiol. 2012, 176 (3): 196-203.

Ghani A, Baguelin M, Griffin J, Flasche S, van Hoek AJ, Cauchemez S, Donnelly C, Robertson C, White M, Truscott J, Fraser C, Garske T, White P, Leach S, Hall I, Jenkins H, Ferguson N, Cooper B: The early transmission dynamics of H1N1pdm influenza in the United Kingdom. PLoS currents. 2009, 1: RRN1130

White LF, Wallinga J, Finelli L, Reed C, Riley S, Lipsitch M, Pagano M: Estimation of the reproductive number and the serial interval in early phase of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in the USA. Influenza Other Respi Viruses. 2009, 3 (6): 267-276.

Lessler J, Reich NG, Cummings DA, Nair HP, Jordan HT, Thompson N, New York City Department of H: Outbreak of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) at a New York City school. N Engl J Med. 2009, 361 (27): 2628-2636.

Sugimoto JD, Borse NN, Ta ML, Stockman LJ, Fischer GE, Yang Y, Halloran ME, Longini IM, Duchin JS: The effect of age on transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in a camp and associated households. Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass). 2011, 22 (2): 180-187.

Hien TT, Boni MF, Bryant JE, Ngan TT, Wolbers M, Nguyen TD, Truong NT, Dung NT, Ha do Q, Hien VM, Thanh TT, le NT N, le TT U, Nhien PT, Chinh NT, Chau NV, Farrar J, van Doorn HR: Early pandemic influenza (2009 H1N1) in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam: a clinical virological and epidemiological analysis. PLoS Med. 2010, 7 (5): e1000277-

Hens N, Van Ranst M, Aerts M, Robesyn E, Van Damme P, Beutels P: Estimating the effective reproduction number for pandemic influenza from notification data made publicly available in real time: a multi-country analysis for influenza A/H1N1v 2009. Vaccine. 2011, 29 (5): 896-904.

Tang S, Xiao Y, Yuan L, Cheke RA, Wu J: Campus quarantine (Fengxiao) for curbing emergent infectious diseases: lessons from mitigating A/H1N1 in Xi'an, China. J Theor Biol. 2012, 295: 47-58.

Tang S, Xiao Y, Yang Y, Zhou Y, Wu J, Ma Z: Community-based measures for mitigating the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in China. PLoS One. 2010, 5 (6): e10911-

Trichereau J, Verret C, Mayet A, Manet G, Decam C, Meynard JB, Deparis X, Migliani R: Estimation of the reproductive number for A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza among the French armed forces, September 2009-March 2010. The Journal of infection. 2012, 64 (6): 628-630.

Haghdoost A, Baneshi MR, Zolala F, Farvahari S, Safizadeh H: Estimation of basic reproductive number of Flu-like syndrome in a primary school in Iran. International journal of preventive medicine. 2012, 3 (6): 408-413.

Poletti P, Ajelli M, Merler S: The effect of risk perception on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics. PLoS One. 2011, 6 (2): e16460-

Tsukui S: Case-Based Surveillance of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in Maebashi City, Japan. Jpn J Infect Dis. 2012, 65 (2): 132-137.

Renault P, D'Ortenzio E, Kermarec F, Filleul L: Pandemic influenza 2009 on reunion island: a mild wave linked to a low reproduction number. PLoS currents. 2010, 2: RRN1145

Baguelin M, Hoek AJ, Jit M, Flasche S, White PJ, Edmunds WJ: Vaccination against pandemic influenza A/H1N1v in England: a real-time economic evaluation. Vaccine. 2010, 28 (12): 2370-2384.

Glass K, Kelly H, Mercer GN: Pandemic influenza H1N1: reconciling serosurvey data with estimates of the reproduction number. Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass). 2012, 23 (1): 86-94.

Van Kerkhove MD, Mounts AW, Mall S, Vandemaele KA, Chamberland M, dos Santos T, Fitzner J, Widdowson MA, Michalove J, Bresee J, et al: Epidemiologic and virologic assessment of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic on selected temperate countries in the Southern Hemisphere: Argentina, Australia, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa. Influenza Other Respi Viruses. 2011, 5 (6): e487-e498.

Valleron AJ, Cori A, Valtat S, Meurisse S, Carrat F, Boelle PY: Transmissibility and geographic spread of the 1889 influenza pandemic. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010, 107 (19): 8778-8781.

Spicer CC: The mathematical modelling of influenza epidemics. Br Med Bull. 1979, 35 (1): 23-28.

Chowell G, Miller MA, Viboud C: Seasonal influenza in the United States, France, and Australia: transmission and prospects for control. Epidemiol Infect. 2008, 136 (6): 852-864.

Gran JM, Iversen B, Hungnes O, Aalen OO: Estimating influenza-related excess mortality and reproduction numbers for seasonal influenza in Norway, 1975–2004. Epidemiol Infect. 2010, 138 (11): 1559-1568.

Britton T, Becker NG: Estimating the immunity coverage required to prevent epidemics in a community of households. Biostatistics (Oxford, England). 2000, 1 (4): 389-402.

Wearing HJ, Rohani P, Keeling MJ: Appropriate models for the management of infectious diseases. PLoS Med. 2005, 2 (7): e174-

Flahault A, Letrait S, Blin P, Hazout S, Menares J, Valleron AJ: Modelling the 1985 influenza epidemic in France. Stat Med. 1988, 7 (11): 1147-1155.

Truscott J, Fraser C, Hinsley W, Cauchemez S, Donnelly C, Ghani A, Ferguson N, Meeyai A: Quantifying the transmissibility of human influenza and its seasonal variation in temperate regions. PLoS currents. 2009, 1: RRN1125

Truscott J, Fraser C, Cauchemez S, Meeyai A, Hinsley W, Donnelly CA, Ghani A, Ferguson N: Essential epidemiological mechanisms underpinning the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface / the Royal Society. 2012, 9 (67): 304-312.

Cauchemez S, Valleron AJ, Boelle PY, Flahault A, Ferguson NM: Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data. Nature. 2008, 452 (7188): 750-754.

Chowell G, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Miller M, Alonso WJ: The reproduction number of seasonal influenza epidemics in Brazil, 1996–2006. Proc Biol Sci. 2010, 277 (1689): 1857-1866.

Barnea O, Yaari R, Katriel G, Stone L: Modelling seasonal influenza in Israel. Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE. 2011, 8 (2): 561-573.

Cintron-Arias A, Castillo-Chavez C, Bettencourt LM, Lloyd AL, Banks HT: The estimation of the effective reproductive number from disease outbreak data. Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE. 2009, 6 (2): 261-282.

Huppert A, Barnea O, Katriel G, Yaari R, Roll U, Stone L: Modeling and statistical analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal influenza in Israel. PLoS One. 2012, 7 (10): e45107-

Chen SC, Liao CM: Probabilistic indoor transmission modeling for influenza (sub)type viruses. The Journal of infection. 2010, 60 (1): 26-35.

Lunelli A, Rizzo C, Puzelli S, Bella A, Montomoli E, Rota MC, Donatelli I, Pugliese A: Understanding the dynamics of seasonal influenza in Italy: incidence, transmissibility and population susceptibility in a 9-year period. Influenza Other Respi Viruses. 2013, 7 (2): 286-295.

Smieszek T, Balmer M, Hattendorf J, Axhausen KW, Zinsstag J, Scholz RW: Reconstructing the 2003/2004 H3N2 influenza epidemic in Switzerland with a spatially explicit, individual-based model. BMC Infect Dis. 2011, 11: 115-

Hsieh YH: Age groups and spread of influenza: implications for vaccination strategy. BMC Infect Dis. 2010, 10: 106-

Bettencourt LM, Ribeiro RM: Real time bayesian estimation of the epidemic potential of emerging infectious diseases. PLoS One. 2008, 3 (5): e2185-

Borja-Aburto VH, Chowell G, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Grajales-Muniz C, Gonzalez-Bonilla CR, Diaz-Quinonez JA, Echevarria-Zuno S: Epidemiological characterization of a fourth wave of pandemic A/H1N1 influenza in Mexico, winter 2011–2012: age shift and severity. Arch Med Res. 2012, 43 (7): 563-570.

Chowell G, Echevarria-Zuno S, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Grajales Muniz C, Rascon Pacheco RA, Gonzalez Leon M, Borja Aburto VH: Recrudescent wave of pandemic A/H1N1 influenza in Mexico, winter 2011–2012: Age shift and severity. PLoS currents. 2012, 4: RRN1306

Lessler J, Cummings DA, Fishman S, Vora A, Burke DS: Transmissibility of swine flu at Fort Dix, 1976. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface / the Royal Society. 2007, 4 (15): 755-762.

Yang Y, Halloran ME, Sugimoto JD, Longini IM: Detecting human-to-human transmission of avian influenza A (H5N1). Emerg Infect Dis. 2007, 13 (9): 1348-1353.

Aditama TY, Samaan G, Kusriastuti R, Sampurno OD, Purba W, Misriyah , Santoso H, Bratasena A, Maruf A, Sariwati E, Setiawaty V, Glass K, Lokuge K, Kelly PM, Kandun IN: Avian influenza H5N1 transmission in households, Indonesia. PLoS One. 2012, 7 (1): e29971-

Frost WH: The epidemiology of influenza. J Am Med Assoc. 1919, 73 (5): 313-318.

Shrestha SS, Swerdlow DL, Borse RH, Prabhu VS, Finelli L, Atkins CY, Owusu-Edusei K, Bell B, Mead PS, Biggerstaff M, Brammer L, Davidson H, Jernigan D, Jhung MA, Kamimoto LA, Merlin TL, Nowell M, Redd SC, Reed C, Schuchat A, Meltzer MI: Estimating the burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in the United States (April 2009-April 2010). Clin Infect Dis. 2011, 52 (Suppl 1): S75-S82.

Cumulative number of confirmed human cases of avian influenza A(H5N1) reported to WHO. [ http://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/EN_GIP_20130215CumulativeNumberH5N1cases.pdf ]

Mossong J, Hens N, Jit M, Beutels P, Auranen K, Mikolajczyk R, Massari M, Salmaso S, Tomba GS, Wallinga J, Heijne J, Sadkowska-Todys M, Rosinska M, Edmunds WJ: Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS Med. 2008, 5 (3): e74-

The world factbook. [ https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ ]

Nishiura H, Chowell G, Castillo-Chavez C: Did modeling overestimate the transmission potential of pandemic (H1N1-2009)? Sample size estimation for post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies. PLoS One. 2011, 6 (3): e17908-

Shaman J, Kohn M: Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009, 106 (9): 3243-3248.

Shaman J, Pitzer V, Viboud C, Lipsitch M, Grenfell B: Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental US. PLoS currents. 2009, 2: RRN1138

Influenza in a boarding school: News and Notes. BMJ. 1978, 1: 587-