Đường cong Kuznets môi trường và sự mở cửa thương mại ở Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ: Phương pháp Bootstrap ARDL với sự đứt gãy cấu trúc

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 26 - Trang 20264-20276 - 2019
Ugur Korkut Pata1
1Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Osmaniye Korkut Ata University, Osmaniye, Turkey

Tóm tắt

Trong nghiên cứu này, tính hợp lệ của giả thuyết đường cong Kuznets môi trường (EKC) được kiểm tra bằng cách tiếp cận bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) mới phát triển, với việc đưa vào các tác động của sự mở cửa thương mại đối với Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ từ năm 1969 đến năm 2017. Kết quả từ phương pháp bootstrap ARDL cho thấy có mối quan hệ lâu dài giữa lượng khí carbon dioxide (CO2) phát thải trên đầu người, thu nhập thực tế trên đầu người và sự mở cửa thương mại trong bối cảnh có một đứt gãy cấu trúc. Kết quả của các ước lượng lâu dài chỉ ra rằng giả thuyết EKC hình chữ U ngược là hợp lệ, và sự mở cửa thương mại có tác động tăng lên đối với lượng phát thải CO2. Tuy nhiên, Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ chưa đạt được mức thu nhập cần thiết để giảm ô nhiễm. Kết quả của bài kiểm tra nguyên nhân Granger Fourier Toda–Yamamoto cũng cho thấy mối quan hệ nguyên nhân đơn hướng đi từ thu nhập thực trên đầu người và sự mở cửa thương mại đến lượng phát thải CO2 trên đầu người. Ngoài những phát hiện này, còn xác định rằng tỷ lệ tăng trưởng và sản xuất giảm trong cuộc khủng hoảng tài chính năm 2001 tại Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ đã làm giảm ô nhiễm môi trường cả trong ngắn hạn và dài hạn. Do đó, các kết quả này cho thấy các hiệu ứng quy mô và thành phần vượt trội hơn đối với tăng trưởng kinh tế và sự mở cửa thương mại ở Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ.

Từ khóa

#đường cong Kuznets môi trường #Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ #sự mở cửa thương mại #phát thải CO2 #phương pháp ARDL

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