Entrepreneurial Survival

Small Business Economics - Tập 28 - Trang 87-104 - 2006
Harald Strotmann1,2
1Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW), Tübingen, Germany
2University of Hohenheim, Tübingen, Germany

Tóm tắt

This paper gives an empirical analysis of determinants of new-firm survival in the manufacturing sector of Baden-Wuerttemberg (Germany) from 1981 to 1994. The analysis focuses on firm- and industry-specific determinants of new-firm survival. A possible effect of regional agglomeration and of the business cycle is also tested, albeit in a very general manner. From a methodical point of view parametric and semiparametric duration models are used. Grouped duration models are estimated taking into account the problem of ties. Moreover, the problem of unobserved heterogeneity is considered which has so far been neglected in numerous studies. The empirical analyses show with respect to industry-specific effects that the risk of new-firm failure is the larger the larger an industry’ s minimum efficient scale is, the worse the sectoral demand-conditions are, the more narrow the market is, the higher dynamics of foundation within an industry are. The liability of smallness-hypothesis is confirmed for German manufacturing while with respect to firm age the results favour the liability of adolescence-hypothesis instead of a pure liability of newness.

Tài liệu tham khảo

Abdesselam R., Bonnet J. and LePape N. (2004). An Explanation of the Life Span of New French Firms. Small Business Economics 23(3): 237–254 . Acs, Z. J. and D. B. Audretsch, (eds.), 1990, Innovation and Small Firms, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Agarwal R. (1997). Survival of Firms over the Product Life Cycle. Southern Economic Journal 63(3): 571–584 . Agarwal R. (1998). Evolutionary Trend of Industry Variables. International Journal of Industrial Organization 16(4): 511–526 . Agarwal R. and Audretsch D. B. (1999). The Two Views of Small Firms in Industry Dynamics: A Reconciliation. Economics Letters 62(2): 245–251 . Agarwal R. and Audretsch D. B. (2001). Does Entry Size Matter? The Impact of the Life Cycle and Technology on Firm Survival. The Journal of Industrial Economics 49(1): 21–43 . Agarwal R. and Gort M. (1996). The Evolution of Markets and Entry, Exit and Survival of Firms. The Review of Economics and Statistics 78(3): 489–498 . Audretsch D. B. (1991). New Firm Survival and the Technological Regime. The Review of Economics and Statistics 68: 441–450 . Audretsch D. B. (1995a). Innovation and Industry Evolution. MIT Press, Cambridge MA . Audretsch D. B. (1995b). Innovation, Growth and Survival. International Journal of Industrial Organization 13(4): 441–457 . Audretsch D. B. (1995). New Firms Survival: New Results Using a Hazard Function. The Review of Economics and Statistics 77(1): 97–103 . Audretsch D. B. and Vivarelli M. V. (1995). New Firm Formation in Italy: A First Report. Economics Letters 48(1): 77–81 . Audretsch, D. B., P. Houweling, and A. R. Thurik, 1997, ‘New-Firm Survival: Industry versus Firm Effects’, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 63. Audretsch D. B., Klomp L. and Thurik A. R. (1999). Do Services Differ from Manufacturing? The Post-Entry Performance of Firms in Dutch Services. In: Audretsch David, B. and Roy Thurik, A. (eds) Innovation, Industry Evolution, and Employment, pp 230–252. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK . Audretsch D. B., Santarelli E. and Vivarelli M. (1999a). Start Up Size and Industrial Dynamics: Some Evidence from Italian Manufacturing. International Journal of Industrial Organization 17: 965–983 . Audretsch D. B., Santarelli E. and Vivarelli M. (1999b). Does the Startup Size Influence the Likelihood of Survival?. In: David Audretsch, B. and Roy Thurik, A. (eds) Innovation, Industry Evolution, and Employment, pp 280–296. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK . Baden-Fuller C. W. F. (1989). Exit from Declining Industries and the Case of Steel Castings. The Economic Journal 99: 949–961 . Bates T. (1985). Entrepreneur Human Capital Endowments and Minority Business Viability. The Journal of Human Resources 20(4): 540–559 . Bates T. (1990). Entrepreneur Human Capital Inputs and Small Business Longevity. The Review of Economics and Statistics 72(4): 551–559 . Bhattacharjee A., Higson C., Holly S. and Kattuman P. (2004). Business Failure in UK and US Quoted Firms. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0420. Boeri T. and Bellmann L. (1995). Post-Entry Behaviour and the Cycle: Evidence from Germany. International Journal of Industrial Organization 13: 483–500 . Bradburd R. and Caves R. E. (1982). A Closer Look at the Effect of Market Growth on Industries' Profits. The Review of Economics and Statistics 64(4): 635–645 . Breslow N. E. (1974). Covariance Analysis of Censored Survival Data. Biometrics 30: 89–99 . Brüderl J., Preisendörfer P. and Ziegler R. (1992). Survival Chances of Newly Founded Business Organizations. American Sociological Review 57: 227–242 . Brüderl J., Preisendörfer P. and Ziegler R. (1996). Der Erfolg neugegründeter Betriebe: Eine empirische Studie zu den Chancen und Risiken von Unternehmensgründungen. Duncker & Humbolt, Berlin . Cable J. and Schwalbach J. (1991). International Comparisons of Entry and Exit. In: Paul Geroski, A. (eds) Entry and Market Contestability, pp 257–281. Basil Blackwell, Oxford . Cabral L. (1997). Entry Mistakes, CEPR Discussion Paper, 1729. CEPR, London . Campbell J. R. (1998). Entry, Exit, Embodied Technology and Business Cycles. Review of Economic Dynamics 1: 371–408 . Caves R. E. (1998). Industrial Organization and New Findings on the Turnover and Mobility of Firms. Journal of Economic Literature 36: 1947–1982 . Caves R. E., Khalilzadeh-Shirazi J. and Porter M. E. (1975). Scale Economies in Statistical Analyses of Market Power. The Review of Economics and Statistics 57(2): 133–140 . Comanor W. S. and Wilson T. A. (1967). Advertising, Market Structure and Performance. The Review of Economics and Statistics 49(4): 423–440 . Cox D. R. (1972). Regression Models and Life-Tables (with Discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 34: 187–220 . Cox D. R. and Oakes D. (1984). Analysis of Survival Data, Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability. Chapman and Hall, London . Dunne T., Roberts M. J. and Samuelson L. (1988). Patterns of Firm Entry and Exit in U.S. Manufacturing Industries. Rand Journal of Economics 19(4): 495–515 . Dunne T., Roberts M. J. and Samuelson L. (1989). The Growth and Failure of U.S. Manufacturing Plants. Quarterly Journal of Economics 104: 671–698 . Efron B. (1977). The Efficiency of Cox's Likelihood for Censored Data. Journal of the American Statistical Association 72: 557–565 . Fotopoulos G. and Louri H. (2000a). Determinants of Hazard Confronting New Entry: Does Financial Structure Matter?. Review of Industrial Organization 17(3): 285–300 . Fotopoulos G. and Louri H. (2000b). Location and Survival of New Entry. Small Business Economics 14(4): 311–321 . Gerlach K. and Wagner J. (1994). Regional Differences in Small Firm Entry in Manufacturing Industries: Lower Saxony, 1979–1991. Entrepreneurship & Regional Development 6: 63–80 . Geroski P. A. (1992). Entry, Exit and Structural Adjustment in European Industry. In: Damien Neven, J. (eds) European Industrial Restructuring in the 1990s, pp 139–161. Macmillan, London . Geroski P. A. (1995). What Do We Know about Entry?. International Journal of Industrial Organization 13: 421–440 . Gort M. and Steven K. (1982). Time Paths in the Diffusion of Product Innovations. The Economic Journal 92(3): 630–653 . Gutierrez R. G., Carter S. L. and Drukker D. M. (2001). On boundary-value likelihood-ratio tests. Stata Technical Bulletin 60: 15–18 . Honjo Y. (2000). Business Failure of New Firms: An Empirical Analysis Using a Multiplicative Hazards Model. International Journal of Industrial Organization 18: 557–574 . Hougaard P. (1986). Survival Models for Heterogeneous Populations Derived from Stable Distributions. Biometrika 73: 387–196 . Jovanovic B. (1982). Selection and the Evolution of Industry. Econometrica 50(3): 649–670 . Karlsson C. and Nystöm K. (2003). Exit and Entry over the Product Life Cycle: Evidence from the Swedish Manufacturing Industry. Small Business Economics 21(2): 135–144 . Keeble D. and Walker S. (1994). New Firms, Small Firms and Dead Firms: Spatial Patterns and Determinants in the United Kingdom. Regional Studies 28(4): 411–427 . Klein J. P. and Moeschberger M. L. (1997). Survival Analysis: Techniques for Censored and Truncated Data. John Wiley & Sons, New York . Lin D. Y. and Wei L. -J. (1989). The Robust Inference for the Cox Proportional Hazards Model. Journal of the American Statistical Association 84: 1074–1078 . Lucas R. E. (1978). On the Size Distribution of Business Firms. The Bell Journal of Economics 9(2): 508–523 . Mahmood T. (1992). Does the Hazard Rate for New Plants Vary between Low- and High-Tech-Industries. Small Business Economics 4(3): 201–209 . Mata J. and Portugal P. (1994). Life Duration of New Firms. Journal of Industrial Economics 42: 227–246 . Mata J. and Portugal P. (1999). Technology Intensity, Demand Conditions and the Longevity of Firms. In: Audretsch, D.B. and Thurik, A.R. (eds) Innovation, Industry Evolution and Employment, pp 265–279. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK . Mata J., Portugal P. and Guimaraes P. (1995). The Survival of New Plants, Start-up Conditions and Post-Entry Evolution. International Journal of Industrial Organization 13(4): 459–481. Nelson R. R. and Winter S. G. (1982). An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA. Niedersächsisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung et al. (1998): Bericht zur technologischen Leistungsfähigkeit Deutschlands 1997. Nucci and A. R. (1999). The Demography of Business Closings. Small Business Economics 12(1): 25–39. (1987). The Process of Job Creation and Destruction. Employment Outlook 97–124. Orr D. (1974). The Determinants of Entry: A Study of the Canadian Manufacturing Industries. The Review of Economics and Statistics 61: 58–66 . Prentice R. L. and Gloeckler L.A. (1978). Regression Analysis of Grouped Survival Data with Application to Breast Cancer Data. Biometrics 34: 57–67. Reynolds P. D. (1997). Who Starts New Firms? Preliminary Explorations of Firms-in Gestation. Small Business Economics 9: 449–462 . Santarelli E. (1998). Start-up Size and Post-entry Performance: The Case of Tourism Services in Italy. Applied Economics 30(2): 157–163 . Santarelli E. and Vivarelli M. (2002). Is Subsidizing Entry an Optimal Policy?. Industrial and Corporate Change 11: 39–52 . Segarra A. and Callejon M. (2002). New Firms’ Survival and Market Turbulence: New Evidence from Spain. Review of Industrial Organization 20: 1–14 . Siegfried J. J. and Evans L. B. (1994). Empirical Studies of Entry and Exit: A Survey of the Evidence. Review of Industrial Organization 9: 121–155 . Strotmann, H., 2002, ‘Arbeitsplatzdynamik in der baden-württembergischen Industrie: Eine Analyse mit amtlichen Betriebspaneldaten’, in Hohenheimer Volkswirtschaftliche Schriften, Band 39, Frankfurt am Main: Peter Lang Verlag. Sutton J. (1997). Gibrat’s Legacy. Journal of Economic Literature 35: 40–59 . Thompson W. (1968). Internal and External Factors in the Development of Urban Economies. In: Harvey Perloff, S. (eds) Issues in Urban Economics, pp 43–62. The Johns Hopkins Press for Resources for the Future, Washington D.C . Tveteras R. and Eide G. E. (2000). Survival of New Plants in Different Industry Environments in Norwegian Manufacturing: A Semi-Proportional Cox Model Approach. Small Business Economics 14(1): 65–82 . Palm F. C. and Pfann G. A. (2002). Exit and Survival in a Concentrating Industry. Review of Industrial Organization 21: 283–303 . Vivarelli M. (2004). Are All the Potential Entrepreneurs So Good?. Small Business Economics 23: 41–49 . Wagner J. (1994). The Post-Entry Performance of New Small Firms in Manufacturing Industries. Journal of Industrial Economics 42(2): 141–154 . Weiss L. W. (1964). The Survivor Technique and the Extent of Suboptimal Capacity. Journal of Political Economy 72(3): 162–246 . Weiss L.W. (1976). Optimal Plant Scale and the Extent of Suboptimal Capacity. In: Robert Masson, T. and David Qualls, P. (eds) Essays on Industrial Organization in Honor of Joe S. Bain, pp 126–134. Ballinger, Cambridge, MA . Weiss L. W. (1989). Concentration and Price. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA . Winter S. G. (1984). Schumpeterian Competition in Alternative Technological Regimes. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 5(3–4): 287–320 . Woywode, M., 1998, ‘Determinanten der Überlebenswahrscheinlichkeit von Unternehmen: Eine empirische ÜberprÜfung organisationstheoretischer und industrieökonomischer Erklärungsansätze’, ZEW Wirtschaftsanalysen pp. 25.