Energy Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Consumer Durables

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking - Tập 40 Số 7 - Trang 1357-1377 - 2008
Rajeev Dhawan1, Karsten Jeske2
1Rajeev Dhawan is Director of the Economic Forecasting Center and Associate Professor, J. Mack Robinson College of Business, Georgia State University, P.O. Box 3988, Atlanta, GA 30302‐3988 (E‐mail: [email protected]).
2Karsten Jeske is from Mellon Capital Management, 50 Fremont Street, Suite 3900, San Francisco, CA 94105 (E-mail: [email protected]).

Tóm tắt

We create a model with a distinction between investment in consumer durables and capital goods, as well as energy use by households and firms, to evaluate the importance of energy price shocks for output fluctuations. Simulation results indicate that this economy has a smaller proportion of output fluctuations attributable to energy price shocks than one without durable goods and household energy use. We show that an energy price hike is absorbed by reducing investment in durables more than in fixed capital. This rebalancing effect cushions the hit to future production. Thus, productivity shocks remain the prime driver for output fluctuations.

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Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

Tập 40 Số 7

1357-1377

Thông tin tác giả