Energy Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Consumer Durables
Tóm tắt
We create a model with a distinction between investment in consumer durables and capital goods, as well as energy use by households and firms, to evaluate the importance of energy price shocks for output fluctuations. Simulation results indicate that this economy has a smaller proportion of output fluctuations attributable to energy price shocks than one without durable goods and household energy use. We show that an energy price hike is absorbed by reducing investment in durables more than in fixed capital. This rebalancing effect cushions the hit to future production. Thus, productivity shocks remain the prime driver for output fluctuations.
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Annual Energy Review 2007 2007 Department of Energy
Dhawan Rajeev andKarstenJeske. (2007) “What Matters More for the Output Drop after an Energy Price Increase: Household or Firm Energy Share?” Federal Reserve Bank Atlanta Working Paper 2007‐20.
Dhawan Rajeev andKarstenJeske. (2008) “Technical Appendix for Energy Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Consumer Durables.” Manuscript Federal Reserve Bank Atlanta .
Edelstein Paul andLutzKilian. (2007) “Retail Energy Prices and Consumer Expenditures.” Manuscript University of Michigan .
Fernandez‐Villaverde Jesus andDirkKrueger. (2001) “Consumption and Saving Over the Life Cycle: How Important Are Consumer Durables?” Manuscript University of Pennsylvania .
McGrattan Ellen, 1994, A Progress Report on Business Cycle Models, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 18, 1
Mehra Yash P., 2005, Oil Prices and Consumer Spending, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, 91, 53