Giáo dục nội sinh và sự đảo ngược trong mối quan hệ giữa tỷ lệ sinh và tăng trưởng kinh tế

Journal of Population Economics - Tập 33 - Trang 1025-1068 - 2020
Alberto Bucci1,2,3, Klaus Prettner4
1Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods (DEMM), University of Milan, Milan, Italy
2CEIS (Centre for Economic and International Studies), University of Rome-‘Tor Vergata’, Rome, Italy
3RCEA (Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis), Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Canada
4University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany

Tóm tắt

Để hòa giải các dự đoán của lý thuyết tăng trưởng dựa trên nghiên cứu và phát triển (R&D) về tác động của sự tăng trưởng dân số đối với sự tăng trưởng năng suất với các bằng chứng thực nghiệm hiện có, chúng tôi đề xuất một mô hình tăng trưởng đa ngành, liên tục theo thời gian, dựa trên R&D với giáo dục nội sinh và tỷ lệ sinh nội sinh. Miễn là hiệu ứng pha loãng vốn nhân lực đủ yếu, sự tăng trưởng dân số nhanh có thể dẫn đến sự tích lũy vốn nhân lực tổng hợp nhanh hơn, dẫn đến tiến bộ công nghệ nhanh hơn và do đó, tỷ lệ tăng trưởng năng suất cao hơn. Ngược lại, khi hiệu ứng pha loãng vốn nhân lực trở nên đủ mạnh, sự tăng trưởng dân số nhanh sẽ làm chậm lại sự tích lũy vốn nhân lực tổng hợp, làm giảm tốc độ thay đổi kỹ thuật và do đó, giảm tăng trưởng năng suất. Do đó, mô hình có thể giải thích cho mối tương quan có thể tiêu cực giữa sự tăng trưởng dân số và tăng trưởng năng suất trong các mô hình tăng trưởng dựa trên R&D tùy thuộc vào sức mạnh của hiệu ứng pha loãng vốn nhân lực.

Từ khóa

#tăng trưởng kinh tế #giáo dục nội sinh #tỷ lệ sinh #tăng trưởng dân số #vốn nhân lực

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