Employment impact of Covid-19 crisis: from short term effects to long terms prospects
Tóm tắt
We contribute to the assessment of the employment implications of the COVID crisis by classifying economic sectors according to the confinement decrees of three European countries (Germany, Spain and Italy). The analysis of these decrees can be used to make a first assessment of the implications of the COVID crisis on labour markets, and also to speculate on mid and long-term developments, since the most and least affected sectors are probably going to continue to operate differently until a vaccine or other long-term solution is found. Using an ad-hoc extraction of EU-LFS data, we apply this classification to the analysis of employment in Germany, Italy and Spain but also UK, Poland and Sweden, in order to cover the whole spectrum of institutional labour market settings within Europe. Our results, in line with recent literature, show that the employment impact is asymmetric within and between countries. In particular, the countries that are being hardest hit by the pandemic itself (Spain and Italy, and also the UK) are the countries more likely to suffer the worst employment implications of the confinement, because of their productive specialisation and labour market institutions. Indeed, these were also the labour markets that were more vulnerable before the crisis: characterised by high unemployment and precarious work (especially temporary contracts).
Tài liệu tham khảo
Adams-Prassl, A., Boneva, T., Golin, M., & Rauh, C. (2020). The large and unequal impact of COVID-19 on workers. https://voxue.org. Accessed 15 May 2020
Andersen, A. L., Hansen, E. T., Johannesen, N., & Sheridan, A. (2020). Pandemic, shutdown and consumer spending: lessons from scandinavian policy responses to COVID-19. Papers arXiv, May 2005.
Barrot, J.-N., Basile, G., & Sauvagnat, J. (2020). Sectoral effects of social distancing. Covid Economics, Centre for Economic Policy Research, 3, 85–102.
Béland, L.-P., Brodeur, A., & Wright, T. (2020). The short-term economic consequences of COVID-19: exposure to disease, remote work and government response. IZA Discussion Paper Series (13159).
Blundell, J., & Machin, S. (2020). Self-employment in the Covid-19 crisis. A CEP Covid-19 analysis, Paper No. 003, Centre for Economic Performance: London School of Economics and Political Science.
Caselli, M., Fracasso, A., & Traverso, S. (2020). Mitigation of risks of Covid-19 contagion and robotisation: evidence from Italy. Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers, The Centre for Economic Policy Research.
del Rio-Chanona, R. M., Mealy, P., Pichler, A., Lafond, F., & Farmer, J. D. (2020). Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: An industry and occupation perspective. Covid Economics, Centre for Economic Policy Research., 6, 65–103.
Danninger, S., & Joutz, F. (2007). What explains Germany’s rebounding export market share? IMF Working Paper no. 24.
Dingel, J. I., & Neiman, B. (2020). How many jobs can be done at home? White Paper: Becker Friedman Institute.
Doerr, S., & Gambacorta, L. (2020). Covid-19 and regional employment in Europe. Bulletin of the Bank for International Settlements, (16).
Esping-Andersen, G. (1990). Social foundations of post-industrial economies. New York: Oxford University Press.
Eurofound. (2020). Living, working and COVID-19—first findings—April 2020. Dublin: Eurofound.
Fana, M., Tolan, S., Torrejón Pérez, S., Urzi Brancati, M. C., & Fernández-Macías, E. (2020). The COVID confinement measures and EU labour markets. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
Gallie, D. (Ed.). (2009). Employment regimes and the quality of work. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Hall, P. A., & Soskice, D. (2001). An introduction to varieties of capitalism. op cit, 21–27.
Hurley, J., Fernández-Macías, E., Bisello, M., Vacas, C., & Fana, M. (2019). European Jobs Monitor 2019: Shifts in the employment structure at regional level. Eurofound and European Commission Joint Research Centre, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg.
Madrid. (2020). Informe del Estudio sobre el impacto de la situación de confinamiento en la población de la ciudad de Madrid, tras la declaración del estado de alarma por la pandemia COVID-19. Impacto económico y laboral sobre los hogares. Madrid, Dirección General de Innovación y Estrategia Social.
Palomino, J. C., Rodríguez, J. G., & Sebastián, R. (2020). Wage inequality and poverty effects of lockdown and social distancing in Europe. INET Oxford Working Paper (No. 2020-13).
Pouliakas, K., & Branka, J. (2020). EU jobs at highest risk of COVID-19 social distancing: is the pandemic exacerbating the labour market divide? Cedefop—Working Paper Series.
Raitano, M., & Fana, M. (2019). Labour market deregulation and workers’ outcomes at the beginning of the career: Evidence from Italy. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 51(2019), 301–310.
Simonazzi, A., Ginzburg, A., & Nocella, G. (2013). Economic relations between Germany and southern Europe. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 37(3), 653–675.