Effectiveness analysis of multiple epidemic prevention measures in the context of COVID-19 using the SVIRD model and ensemble Kalman filter

Heliyon - Tập 9 - Trang e14231 - 2023
Yajie Zhu1, Feng Liu2, Yulong Bai1, Zebin Zhao2, Chunfeng Ma2, Adan Wu2, Lijin Ning3, Xiaowei Nie4,5
1College of Physics and Electronic Engineering, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou, 730070, China
2Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, China
3College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
4State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100000, China
5The Alliance of International Science Organizations, Beijing, 100000, China

Tài liệu tham khảo

Abdy, 2021, An SIR epidemic model for COVID-19 spread with fuzzy parameter: the case of Indonesia, Adv. Differ. Equ., 1, 1 Giordano, 2020, Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy, Nat. Med., 26, 855, 10.1038/s41591-020-0883-7 Faruk, 2021, A data driven analysis and forecast of COVID-19 dynamics during the third wave using SIRD model in Bangladesh, COVID, 1, 503, 10.3390/covid1020043 Yang, 2020, Modified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions, J. Thorac. Dis., 12, 165, 10.21037/jtd.2020.02.64 Amaral, 2021, Simulating immunization campaigns and vaccine protection against COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil, IEEE Access, 9, 126011, 10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3112036 Rise, 2022, Socioeconomic analysis of infectious diseases based on different scenarios using uncertain SEIAR system dynamics with effective subsystems and ANFIS, J. Econ. Admin. Sci. Liu, 2022, Return to normal pre-COVID-19 life is delayed by inequitable vaccine allocation and SARS-CoV-2 variants, Epidemiol. Infect., 150, E46, 10.1017/S0950268822000139 Liu, 2020, Using the contact network model and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to reconstruct the COVID-19 spread on the “Diamond Princess”, Sci. Bull., 65, 1297, 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043 Zhao, 2021, Stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions are crucial for curbing COVID-19 transmission in the course of vaccination: a case study of South and Southeast asian countries, Healthcare, 9, 10.3390/healthcare9101292 He, 2020, SEIR modeling of the COVID-19 and its dynamics, Nonlinear Dynam., 101, 1667, 10.1007/s11071-020-05743-y Fox, 2020, The impact of asymptomatic COVID-19 infections on future pandemic waves, MedRxiv Li, 2020, Harmonizing models and observations: data assimilation in Earth system science, Sci. China Earth Sci., 63, 1059, 10.1007/s11430-019-9620-x Rhodes, 2009, Variational data assimilation with epidemic models, J. Theor. Biol., 258, 591, 10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.02.017 Shaman, 2012, Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 20425, 10.1073/pnas.1208772109 Pasetto, 2016, Real-time projections of cholera outbreaks through data assimilation and rainfall forecasting, Adv. Water Resour., 108 Evensen, 2020, An international assessment of the COVID-19 pandemic using ensemble data assimilation, medRxiv Ghostine, 2021, An extended SEIR model with vaccination for forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in Saudi Arabia using an ensemble Kalman filter, Mathematics, 9.6, 636, 10.3390/math9060636 Engbert, 2021, Sequential data assimilation of the stochastic SEIR epidemic model for regional COVID-19 dynamics, Bull. Math. Biol., 83, 1, 10.1007/s11538-020-00834-8 Kermack, 1927, A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. A Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character, 115, 700 Hieu, 2015, Dynamical behavior of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model, Math. Model. Nat. Phenom., 56, 10.1051/mmnp/201510205 Kuznetsov, 1994, Bifurcation analysis of periodic SEIR and SIR epidemic models, J. Math. Biol., 32, 109, 10.1007/BF00163027 van den Driessche, 2000, A simple SIS epidemic model with a backward bifurcation, J. Math. Biol., 40, 525, 10.1007/s002850000032 Sahu, 2015, Dynamics of an SEQIHRS epidemic model with media coverage, quarantine and isolation in a community with pre-existing immunity, J. Math. Anal. Appl., 421, 1651, 10.1016/j.jmaa.2014.08.019 Nadler, 2020, An epidemiological modelling approach for COVID-19 via data assimilation, Eur. J. Epidemiol., 35, 749, 10.1007/s10654-020-00676-7 Zhao, 2020, Prediction of the COVID-19 spread in African countries and implications for prevention and control: a case study in South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria, Senegal and Kenya, Sci. Total Environ., 729, 138959, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138959 Masuhara, 2022, Convergent movement of COVID-19 outbreak in Japan based on SIR model, Econ. Anal. Policy, 73, 29, 10.1016/j.eap.2021.10.016 Zhu, 2021, Extended Kalman filter based on stochastic epidemiological model for COVID-19 modelling, Comput. Biol. Med., 137, 104810, 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2021.104810 Ma, 2022, Understanding the dynamics of pandemic models to support predictions of COVID-19 transmission: parameter sensitivity analysis of the SIR-type model, IEEE J. Biomed. Health Inform., 10.1109/JBHI.2022.3168825 Shaman, 2013, Real-time influenza forecasts during the 2012–2013 season, Nat. Commun., 4.1, 1 Orenstein, 1988, Assessing vaccine efficacy in the field: further observations, Epidemiol. Rev., 10.1, 212, 10.1093/oxfordjournals.epirev.a036023 Li, 2010, A bayesian filter framework for sequential data assimilation, Adv. Earth Sci., 25, 515 Zhu, 2014, Simultaneously assimilating multivariate data sets into the two-source evapotranspiration model by Bayesian approach: application to spring maize in an arid region of northwestern China, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1467, 10.5194/gmd-7-1467-2014 Fan, 2021, Coupling the K-nearest neighbors and locally weighted linear regression with ensemble Kalman filter for data-driven data assimilation, Open Geosci., 13, 1395, 10.1515/geo-2020-0312 Fan, 2021, Combining a fully connected neural network With an ensemble Kalman filter to emulate a dynamic model in data assimilation, IEEE Access., 9, 10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3120482 Liu, 2022, Quantifying the representativeness errors caused by scale transformation of remote sensing data in stochastic ensemble data assimilation, IEEE J. Sel. Top. Appl. Earth Obs. Rem. Sens., 15, 1968, 10.1109/JSTARS.2022.3149957 Hu, 2022, A novel strategy to assimilate category variables in land-use models based on Dirichlet distribution, Environ. Model. Software, 149, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105324 Liu, 2020, ComDA: a common software for nonlinear and non-Gaussian land data assimilation, Environ. Model. Softw., 127, 104638, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104638 Andrews, 2022, Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron (B. 1.1. 529) variant, New England J. Med., 386, 1532, 10.1056/NEJMoa2119451 Xia, 2004, Measles metapopulation dynamics: a gravity model for epidemiological coupling and dynamics, Am. Nat., 164, 267, 10.1086/422341 Bertuzzo, 2016, On the probability of extinction of the Haiti cholera epidemic, Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 30, 2043, 10.1007/s00477-014-0906-3 Hladish, 2012, EpiFire: an open source C++ library and application for contact network epidemiology, BMC Bioinform., 13, 1, 10.1186/1471-2105-13-76 El Kryech, 2023, Simulating and modeling the vaccination of Covid-19 pandemic using SIR Model-SVIRD Li, 2020, Big data assimilation to improve the predictability of COVID-19, Geogr. Sustain., 1, 317