Effective sea ice area based on a thickness threshold

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 56 Số 11 - Trang 3541-3552 - 2021
Ford, Victoria L.1, Frauenfeld, Oliver W.1, Nowotarski, Christopher J.2, Bombardi, Rodrigo J.1
1Climate Science Lab, Department of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station, USA
2Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, USA

Tóm tắt

As Arctic sea ice declines in response to climate change, a shift from thick multiyear ice to a thinner ice cover is occurring. With this transition, ice thicknesses approach a threshold below which ice no longer insulates the atmosphere from oceanic surface fluxes. While this is well known, there are no estimates of the magnitude of this threshold, nor of the proportion of sea ice area that is below this threshold as ice thins. We determine this threshold by simulating the atmospheric response to varying thicknesses, ranging from 0.0 to 2.0 m and determine that threshold to be 0.40–0.50 m. The resulting “effective” ice area is 4–14% lower than reported total ice area, as 0.39–0.97 × 106 km2 of the total ice area falls below the threshold throughout the twentieth century, including during notable ice minima. The atmosphere above large non-insulating ice-covered regions is susceptible to more than 2 °C of warming despite ice presence. Observed mean Arctic Ocean ice thickness is projected to fall below this threshold as early as the mid-2020s. Studies on ocean–atmosphere interactions in relation to sea ice area should focus on this insulating sea ice area, where ice is at least 0.40–0.50 m thick, and treat ice regions below 0.40–0.50 m thickness with caution.

Tài liệu tham khảo

citation_journal_title=J Clim; citation_title=The sensitivity of the arctic ocean sea ice thickness and its dependence on the surface Albedo parameterization; citation_author=G Björk, C Stranne, K Borenäs; citation_volume=26; citation_publication_date=2012; citation_pages=1355-1370; citation_doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00085.1; citation_id=CR1 citation_journal_title=Global Planet Change; citation_title=Role of Arctic sea ice in global atmospheric circulation: a review; citation_author=D Budikova; citation_volume=68; citation_publication_date=2009; citation_pages=149-163; citation_doi=10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.04.001; citation_id=CR2 citation_journal_title=J Clim; citation_title=Dark warming; citation_author=MA Burt, DA Randall, MD Branson; citation_volume=29; citation_publication_date=2016; citation_pages=705-719; citation_doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0147.1; citation_id=CR3 citation_journal_title=Cryosphere; citation_title=Arctic sea ice variability and trends, 1979–2010; citation_author=DJ Cavalieri, CL Parkinson; citation_volume=6; citation_publication_date=2012; citation_pages=881; citation_doi=10.5194/tc-6-881-2012; citation_id=CR4 citation_journal_title=Mon Weather Rev; citation_title=Coupling an advanced land surface–hydrology model with the Penn State–NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: model implementation and sensitivity; citation_author=F Chen, J Dudhia; citation_volume=129; citation_publication_date=2001; citation_pages=569-585; citation_doi=10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0569:CAALSH>2.0.CO;2; citation_id=CR5 citation_journal_title=J Quant Spectrosc Radiat Transfer; citation_title=Atmospheric radiative transfer modeling: a summary of the AER codes; citation_author=SA Clough; citation_volume=91; citation_publication_date=2005; citation_pages=233-244; citation_doi=10.1016/j.jqsrt.2004.05.058; citation_id=CR6 citation_journal_title=J Clim; citation_title=Sea ice-albedo climate feedback mechanism; citation_author=JA Curry, JL Schramm, EE Ebert; citation_volume=8; citation_publication_date=1995; citation_pages=240-247; citation_doi=10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<0240:SIACFM>2.0.CO;2; citation_id=CR7 citation_journal_title=Q J R Meteorol Soc; citation_title=The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system; citation_author=DP Dee; citation_volume=137; citation_publication_date=2011; citation_pages=553-597; citation_doi=10.1002/qj.828; citation_id=CR8 citation_title=Sea Ice Index, version 3; citation_publication_date=2017; citation_id=CR9; citation_author=F Fetterer; citation_author=K Knowles; citation_author=W Meier; citation_author=M Savoie; citation_author=AK Windnagel; citation_publisher=Boulder citation_journal_title=Earth Syst Sci Data; citation_title=Global carbon budget 2019; citation_author=P Friedlingstein; citation_volume=11; citation_publication_date=2019; citation_pages=1783-1838; citation_doi=10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019; citation_id=CR10 citation_journal_title=Geophys Res Lett; citation_title=Atmospheric response to changes in Arctic sea ice thickness; citation_author=R Gerdes; citation_volume=33; citation_publication_date=2006; citation_pages=1-4; citation_doi=10.1029/2006GL027146; citation_id=CR11 citation_journal_title=J Geophys Res Atmos; citation_title=Implications for Arctic amplification of changes in the strength of the water vapor feedback; citation_author=D Ghatak, J Miller; citation_volume=118; citation_publication_date=2013; citation_pages=7569-7578; citation_doi=10.1002/jgrd.50578; citation_id=CR12 citation_journal_title=J Clim; citation_title=Evaluation of six atmospheric reanalyses over Arctic sea ice from winter to early summer; citation_author=RM Graham; citation_volume=32; citation_publication_date=2019; citation_pages=4121-4143; citation_doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0643.1; citation_id=CR13 citation_journal_title=Atmos Chem Phys; citation_title=A scale and aerosol aware stochastic convective parameterization for weather and air quality modeling; citation_author=GA Grell, SR Freitas; citation_volume=14; citation_publication_date=2014; citation_pages=5233-5250; citation_doi=10.5194/acp-14-5233-2014; citation_id=CR14 citation_journal_title=J Geophys Res Oceans; citation_title=An Arctic source for the great salinity anomaly: a simulation of the Arctic ice-ocean system for 1955–1975; citation_author=S Häkkinen; citation_volume=98; citation_publication_date=1993; citation_pages=16397-16410; citation_doi=10.1029/93JC01504; citation_id=CR15 citation_journal_title=J Clim; citation_title=The role of surface albedo feedback in climate; citation_author=A Hall; citation_volume=17; citation_publication_date=2004; citation_pages=1550-1568; citation_doi=10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1550:TROSAF>2.0.CO;2; citation_id=CR16 citation_journal_title=Mon Weather Rev; citation_title=Simulation of late summer Arctic clouds during ASCOS with polar WRF; citation_author=KM Hines, DH Bromwich; citation_volume=145; citation_publication_date=2016; citation_pages=521-541; citation_doi=10.1175/MWR-D-16-0079.1; citation_id=CR17 citation_journal_title=Mon Weather Rev; citation_title=Sea ice enhancements to Polar WRF; citation_author=KM Hines, DH Bromwich, L Bai, CM Bitz, JG Powers, KW Manning; citation_volume=143; citation_publication_date=2015; citation_pages=2363-2385; citation_doi=10.1175/MWR-D-14-00344.1; citation_id=CR18 Janjić ZI (2001) Nonsingular implementation of the Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 scheme in the NCEP Meso model Tech Rep 437. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/officenotes/newernotes/on437.pdf citation_journal_title=J Glaciol; citation_title=Arctic sea-ice change: a grand challenge of climate science; citation_author=VM Kattsov; citation_volume=56; citation_publication_date=2010; citation_pages=1115-1121; citation_doi=10.3189/002214311796406176; citation_id=CR20 citation_journal_title=J Geophys Res Atmos; citation_title=Cloud influence on and response to seasonal Arctic sea ice loss; citation_author=JE Kay, A Gettelman; citation_volume=114; citation_publication_date=2009; citation_pages=D18204; citation_doi=10.1029/2009JD011773; citation_id=CR21 citation_journal_title=J Clim; citation_title=Variability of Arctic Sea Ice thickness using PIOMAS and the CESM large ensemble; citation_author=Z Labe, G Magnusdottir, H Stern; citation_volume=31; citation_publication_date=2018; citation_pages=3233-3247; citation_doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0436.1; citation_id=CR22 citation_journal_title=Geophys Res Lett; citation_title=Sea ice thickness and recent Arctic warming; citation_author=A Lang, S Yang, E Kaas; citation_volume=44; citation_publication_date=2017; citation_pages=409-418; citation_doi=10.1002/2016GL071274; citation_id=CR23 citation_journal_title=Geophys Res Lett; citation_title=CryoSat-2 estimates of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume; citation_author=SW Laxon; citation_volume=40; citation_publication_date=2013; citation_pages=732-737; citation_doi=10.1002/grl.50193; citation_id=CR24 citation_journal_title=Prob Arktiki; citation_title=Growth of ice in Arctic rivers and seas and its dependence on negative air temperature; citation_author=V Lebedev; citation_volume=5; citation_publication_date=1938; citation_pages=9-25; citation_id=CR25 citation_journal_title=Geophys Res Lett; citation_title=Distribution and trends in Arctic sea ice age through spring 2011; citation_author=J Maslanik, J Stroeve, C Fowler, W Emery; citation_volume=38; citation_publication_date=2011; citation_pages=1-6; citation_doi=10.1029/2011GL047735; citation_id=CR26 citation_journal_title=J Geophys Res Oceans; citation_title=Energy exchange over young sea ice in the central Arctic; citation_author=GA Maykut; citation_volume=83; citation_publication_date=1978; citation_pages=3646-3658; citation_doi=10.1029/JC083iC07p03646; citation_id=CR27 citation_journal_title=Rev Geophys; citation_title=Polynya dynamics: a review of observations and modeling; citation_author=MA Morales Maqueda, AJ Willmott, NRT Biggs; citation_publication_date=2004; citation_doi=10.1029/2002RG000116; citation_id=CR28 citation_journal_title=J Atmos Sci; citation_title=A new double-moment microphysics parameterization for application in cloud and climate models. Part I: description; citation_author=H Morrison, JA Curry, VI Khvorostyanov; citation_volume=62; citation_publication_date=2005; citation_pages=1665-1677; citation_doi=10.1175/JAS3446.1; citation_id=CR29 citation_journal_title=Bound-Layer Meteorol; citation_title=An improved Mellor-Yamada level-3 model: Its numerical stability and application to a regional prediction of advection fog; citation_author=M Nakanishi, H Niino; citation_volume=119; citation_publication_date=2006; citation_pages=397-407; citation_doi=10.1007/s10546-005-9030-8; citation_id=CR30 citation_journal_title=Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change; citation_title=Challenges in simulating sea ice in earth system models; citation_author=D Notz; citation_volume=3; citation_publication_date=2012; citation_pages=509-526; citation_doi=10.1002/wcc.189; citation_id=CR31 Perovich DK et al (2019) Arctic Report Card: Sea Ice.  https://arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2019/ArtMID/7916/ArticleID/841/Sea-Ice . Accessed 17 Jan 2020 Perovich DK, Grenfell TC, Light B, Hobbs PV (2002) Seasonal evolution of the albedo of multiyear Arctic sea ice. J Geophys Res Oceans 107:SHE-20 citation_journal_title=Global Environ Change; citation_title=The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: an overview; citation_author=K Riahi; citation_volume=42; citation_publication_date=2017; citation_pages=153-168; citation_doi=10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009; citation_id=CR34 citation_journal_title=Geophys Res Lett; citation_title=Thinning of the Arctic sea-ice cover; citation_author=DA Rothrock, Y Yu, GA Maykut; citation_volume=26; citation_publication_date=1999; citation_pages=3469-3472; citation_doi=10.1029/1999GL010863; citation_id=CR35 citation_journal_title=J Geophys Res; citation_title=Uncertainty in modeled arctic sea ice volume; citation_author=A Schweiger, R Lindsay, J Zhang, M Steele, H Stern; citation_publication_date=2011; citation_doi=10.1029/2011JC007084; citation_id=CR36 citation_journal_title=J Clim; citation_title=Arctic sea ice volume variability over 1901–2010: a model-based reconstruction; citation_author=A Schweiger, K Wood, J Zhang; citation_volume=32; citation_publication_date=2019; citation_pages=4731-4752; citation_doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0008.1; citation_id=CR37 citation_journal_title=J Clim; citation_title=The atmospheric response to three decades of observed Arctic sea ice loss; citation_author=JA Screen, I Simmonds, C Deser, R Tomas; citation_volume=26; citation_publication_date=2013; citation_pages=1230-1248; citation_doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00063.1; citation_id=CR38 citation_journal_title=J Geophys Res Atmos; citation_title=Dynamical response of the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer process to uncertainties in sea-ice concentration; citation_author=H Seo, J Yang; citation_volume=118; citation_publication_date=2013; citation_pages=12-383; citation_doi=10.1002/2013JD020312; citation_id=CR39 citation_journal_title=Global Planet Change; citation_title=Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: a research synthesis; citation_author=MC Serreze, RG Barry; citation_volume=77; citation_publication_date=2011; citation_pages=85-96; citation_doi=10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.03.004; citation_id=CR40 Serreze MC, Barry RG (2014) The Arctic climate system. Cambridge atmospheric and space science series, 2 edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139583817 citation_journal_title=Cryosphere; citation_title=The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification; citation_author=MC Serreze, AP Barrett, JC Stroeve, DN Kindig, MM Holland; citation_volume=3; citation_publication_date=2009; citation_pages=11-19; citation_doi=10.5194/tc-3-11-2009; citation_id=CR42 SIMIP (2020) Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6. Geophys Res Lett 47:e2019GL086749 citation_journal_title=Q J R Meteorol Soc; citation_title=Arctic warming in ERA-Interim and other analyses; citation_author=AJ Simmons, P Poli; citation_volume=141; citation_publication_date=2015; citation_pages=1147-1162; citation_doi=10.1002/qj.2422; citation_id=CR44 citation_journal_title=Environ Res Lett; citation_title=Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons; citation_author=J Stroeve, D Notz; citation_volume=13; citation_publication_date=2018; citation_pages=103001; citation_doi=10.1088/1748-9326/aade56; citation_id=CR45 citation_journal_title=Geophys Res Lett; citation_title=Arctic sea ice decline: faster than forecast; citation_author=J Stroeve, MM Holland, W Meier, T Scambos, M Serreze; citation_volume=34; citation_publication_date=2007; citation_pages=1-7; citation_doi=10.1029/2007GL029703; citation_id=CR46 citation_journal_title=Geophys Res Lett; citation_title=Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations; citation_author=J Stroeve, V Kattsov, A Barrett, M Serreze, T Pavlova, M Holland, WN Meier; citation_volume=39; citation_publication_date=2012; citation_pages=1-7; citation_doi=10.1029/2012GL052676; citation_id=CR47 citation_journal_title=Cryosphere; citation_title=Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness; citation_author=J Stroeve, A Barrett, M Serreze, A Schweiger; citation_volume=8; citation_publication_date=2014; citation_pages=1839-1854; citation_doi=10.5194/tc-8-1839-2014; citation_id=CR48 citation_journal_title=Atmosphere; citation_title=On the increasing importance of air-sea exchanges in a thawing Arctic: a review; citation_author=PC Taylor, BM Hegyi, RC Boeke, LN Boisvert; citation_volume=9; citation_publication_date=2018; citation_pages=41; citation_doi=10.3390/atmos9020041; citation_id=CR49 citation_journal_title=Nat Clim Change; citation_title=An emergent constraint on future Arctic sea-ice albedo feedback; citation_author=CW Thackeray, A Hall; citation_volume=9; citation_publication_date=2019; citation_pages=972-978; citation_doi=10.1038/s41558-019-0619-1; citation_id=CR50 citation_journal_title=Clim Change; citation_title=Observations: cryosphere; citation_author=DG Vaughan; citation_volume=2103; citation_publication_date=2013; citation_pages=317-382; citation_id=CR51 citation_journal_title=Surv Geophys; citation_title=Effects of Arctic sea ice decline on weather and climate: a review; citation_author=T Vihma; citation_volume=35; citation_publication_date=2014; citation_pages=1175-1214; citation_doi=10.1007/s10712-014-9284-0; citation_id=CR52 citation_journal_title=Ambio; citation_title=Arctic ice cover, ice thickness and tipping points; citation_author=P Wadhams; citation_volume=41; citation_publication_date=2012; citation_pages=23-33; citation_doi=10.1007/s13280-011-0222-9; citation_id=CR53 citation_journal_title=J Geophys Res Oceans; citation_title=Interdecadal changes in snow depth on Arctic sea ice; citation_author=MA Webster, IG Rigor, SV Nghiem, NT Kurtz, SL Farrell, DK Perovich, M Sturm; citation_volume=119; citation_publication_date=2014; citation_pages=5395-5406; citation_doi=10.1002/2014JC009985; citation_id=CR54 citation_journal_title=J Clim; citation_title=Toward a seasonally ice-covered Arctic Ocean: scenarios from the IPCC AR4 model simulations; citation_author=X Zhang, JE Walsh; citation_volume=19; citation_publication_date=2006; citation_pages=1730-1747; citation_doi=10.1175/JCLI3767.1; citation_id=CR55