Phân Tích Rủi Ro Sinh Thái và Kinh Tế của Everglades: Các Phương Án Khôi Phục Giai Đoạn I

Risk Analysis - Tập 18 - Trang 755-771 - 1998
James D. Englehardt1
1University of Miami, Coral Gables

Tóm tắt

Việc đánh giá các phương án khôi phục Everglades liên quan đến phân tích một hệ thống sinh thái và kinh tế phức tạp mà hiện nay kiến thức còn hạn chế. Những lợi ích và tác động không chắc chắn được phân tích một cách xác suất trong nghiên cứu này, theo các nguyên tắc phân tích giá trị hiện tại ròng (NPV) đã được chấp nhận. Lợi ích và tác động sinh thái được xem xét dưới dạng tiền tệ. Xác suất cho các tham số không chắc chắn được chọn đã được tìm bằng cách tối đa hóa entropy. Mô hình rủi ro sinh thái khái niệm đầu tiên cho hệ sinh thái Everglades đã được phát triển để thể hiện các tương tác sinh thái. “Các Kế Hoạch Hiện Tại” cho việc phục hồi liên quan đến việc thải nước giàu phốt-pho từ các vùng đất ngập nước nhân tạo vào các đầm lầy Everglades gần như nguyên sơ trong khoảng từ 3-10 năm, tiềm tàng rủi ro chuyển đổi hệ sinh thái thành một đầm lầy cattail giàu dinh dưỡng. Đối với hai trong số ba khu vực được nghiên cứu, các “Kế Hoạch Bypass” thay thế đã được chứng minh là tránh được mất đến 3000 mẫu đất đầm lầy sawgrass với chi phí mà theo xác suất được chứng minh bởi giá trị của hệ sinh thái được bảo tồn. Độ nhạy của các kết quả đối với các thay đổi sinh thái dự kiến, định giá đầm lầy giàu dinh dưỡng, định giá đầm lầy tự nhiên, và giá trị tương lai được thể hiện trong tỷ lệ chiết khấu, đã được xem xét.

Từ khóa

#Everglades #khôi phục sinh thái #phân tích rủi ro kinh tế #giá trị hiện tại ròng #lợi ích sinh thái

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