Early determination of the reproductive number for vector‐borne diseases: the case of dengue in Brazil

Tropical Medicine and International Health - Tập 11 Số 3 - Trang 332-340 - 2006
Charly Favier1, Nicolas Dégallier1, María Goreti Rosa-Freitas2,3, J. P. Boulanger4,1, José Rubens Costa Lima5, José Francisco Luitgards-Moura3, Christophe Menkès1, Bernard Mondet6, C. Oliveira7, E. T. S. Weimann3, Pantelis Tsouris8,3
1LOCEAN, UMR 7159-IRD/UR182, Paris, France
2Laboratório de Transmissores de Hematozoários, Departamento de Entomologia, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
3Núcleo Avançado de Vetores, Centro de Ciências Biológicas e da Saúde, UFRR, Boa Vista, Brazil
4Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Buenos Aires, Argentina
5CEVEPI, SES-CE, Fortaleza, Brazil
6IRD/UR178 Institut Français de Pondichéry (Epidémiologie Spatiale) 11, Pondicherry, India
7DIVAL, SES-DF, Brasília, Brazil
8Freitas-Tsouris Consultants Ltd, Spata-Atiikis, Greece

Tóm tắt

Summary

Objective To evaluate a new method of deriving the reproductive number for vector‐borne diseases from the early epidemic curves for vector‐borne diseases with incubations in the vectors and in the hosts.

Method We applied the model to several dengue epidemics in different climatic regions of Brazil: Brasilia, Belém, Fortaleza, Boa Vista.

Results The new method leads to higher estimates of the reproductive number than previous models.

Conclusion At present,Aedes aegyptidensities, the meeting of more compatible strains of viruses and mosquitoes, may lead to re‐emergence of urban yellow fever epidemics.

Từ khóa


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Thông tin xuất bản

Tropical Medicine and International Health

Tập 11 Số 3

332-340

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