Dynamic risk factors: Conceptualization, measurement, and evidence

Allan, 2007, Psychometric assessment of dynamic risk factors for child molesters, Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 19, 347, 10.1177/107906320701900402 Andrews, 1995 Andrews, 2010 Andrews, 2004 Andrews, 2011, Sources of variability in estimates of predictive validity: A specification with level of service general risk and need, Criminal Justice and Behavior, 38, 413, 10.1177/0093854811401990 Baird, 2009 Baird, 2013 Barnett, 2013, Does change in psychometric test scores tell us anything about risk of reconviction in sexual offenders?, Psychology, Crime & Law, 19, 85, 10.1080/1068316X.2011.607820 Beech, 2002, The relationship between static and dynamic risk factors and reconviction in a sample of U.K. child abusers, Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 14, 155, 10.1177/107906320201400206 Beech, 2016, Problems in the measurement of dynamic risk factors in sexual offenders, Psychology, Crime & Law, 22, 68, 10.1080/1068316X.2015.1109095 Beggs, 2010, Within-treatment outcome among sexual offenders: A review, Aggression and Violent Behavior, 15, 369, 10.1016/j.avb.2010.06.005 Beggs, 2011, Treatment gain for sexual offenders against children predicts reduced recidivism: A comparative validity study, Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 79, 182, 10.1037/a0022900 Bonta, 2017 Bowen, 2008, Change in treatment has no relationship with subsequent re-offending in UK domestic violence sample: A preliminary study, International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 52, 598, 10.1177/0306624X08319419 Bradford Hill, 1965, The environment of disease: Association or causation?, Proc R Soc Med, 58, 295 Brooks Holliday, 2012, Examining improvements in criminogenic needs: The risk reduction potential of a structured re‐entry program, Behav Sci Law, 30, 431, 10.1002/bsl.2016 Casey, 2016, Dynamic risk and sexual offending: The conundrum of assessment, Psychology, Crime & Law, 22, 104, 10.1080/1068316X.2015.1111366 Caudy, 2013, How well do dynamic needs predict recidivism? Implications for risk assessment and risk reduction, Journal of Criminal Justice, 41, 458, 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2013.08.004 Cohen, 1988 Cohen, 2016, Does Change in Risk Matter?, Criminology & Public Policy, 15, 263, 10.1111/1745-9133.12190 Cording, 2016, Challenges for the theory and application of dynamic risk factors, Psychology, Crime & Law, 22, 84, 10.1080/1068316X.2015.1111367 Coupland, 2018, Assessing dynamic violence risk in a high-risk treated sample of violent offenders, Assessment, 10.1177/1073191118797440 Day, 2006, The process of change in offender rehabilitation programmes, Psychology, Crime & Law, 12, 473, 10.1080/10683160500151209 De Vries Robbé, 2015, Changes in dynamic risk and protective factors for violence during inpatient forensic psychiatric treatment: Predicting reductions in postdischarge community recidivism, Law and Human Behavior, 39, 53, 10.1037/lhb0000089 de Vries Robbé, 2015, Changes in dynamic risk and protective factors for violence during inpatient forensic psychiatric treatment: Predicting reductions in post discharge community recidivism, Law Hum Behav, 39, 53, 10.1037/lhb0000089 Douglas, 2005, Violence risk assessment: Getting specific about being dynamic, Psychol Public Policy Law, 11, 347, 10.1037/1076-8971.11.3.347 Duwe, 2016, A Jack of all trades but a master of none? Evaluating the performance of the Level of Service Inventory–Revised (LSI-R) in the assessment of risk and need, Corrections, 1, 81, 10.1080/23774657.2015.1111743 Fortune, 2019, The Psychology of Criminal Conduct: Criticisms and future directions, Psychol Crime Law, 25, 659, 10.1080/1068316X.2018.1560445 Giguère, 2016, Debunking the psychometric properties of the LS\CMI: An application of item response theory with a risk assessment instrument, Journal of Criminal Justice, 46, 207, 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2016.05.005 Grady, 2011, The state of psychological measures for adult sexual offenders, Aggression and Violent Behavior, 16, 227, 10.1016/j.avb.2011.03.001 Grady, 2017, A longitudinal outcome evaluation of a prison-based sex offender treatment program, Sex Abus, 29, 239, 10.1177/1079063215585731 Greiner, 2015, Using dynamic factors to predict recidivism among women: A four-wave prospective study, Crim Justice Behav, 42, 457, 10.1177/0093854814553222 Hannah-Moffat, 2009, Gridlock or mutability: Reconsidering “gender” and risk assessment, Criminology & Public Policy, 8, 209, 10.1111/j.1745-9133.2009.00549.x Hanson, 2009, The psychological assessment of risk for crime and violence, Canadian Psychology/Psychologie Canadienne, 50, 172, 10.1037/a0015726 Hanson, 2009, The principles of effective correctional treatment also apply to sexual offenders: A meta-analysis, Criminal Justice and Behavior, 36, 865, 10.1177/0093854809338545 Hanson, 2001, A structured approach to evaluating change among sexual offenders, Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 13, 105, 10.1177/107906320101300204 Hanson, 2007 Heffernan, 2017, A comprehensive theory of dynamic risk and protective factors, Aggression and Violent Behavior, 37, 129, 10.1016/j.avb.2017.10.003 Heffernan, 2015, The conceptualization of dynamic risk factors in child sex offenders: An agency model, Aggress Violent Behav, 24, 250, 10.1016/j.avb.2015.07.001 Heffernan, 2018, Dynamic risk factors and constructing explanations of offending: The risk-causality method, Aggression and Violent Behavior, 44, 47, 10.1016/j.avb.2018.11.009 Helmus, 2018, Sex offender risk assessment: Where are we and where are we going?, Current Psychiatry Reports, 20, 46, 10.1007/s11920-018-0909-8 Hendry, 2013 Hildebrand, 2012, Psychopathic traits and change on indicators of dynamic risk factors during inpatient forensic psychiatric treatment, Int J Law Psychiatry, 35, 276, 10.1016/j.ijlp.2012.04.001 Howard, 2018, Within-treatment change in antisocial attitudes and reoffending in a large sample of custodial and community offenders, Law and Human Behavior, 42, 321, 10.1037/lhb0000290 Jung, 2011, Using clinical variables to evaluate treatment effectiveness in programmes for sexual offenders, Journal of Sexual Aggression, 17, 166, 10.1080/13552601003802238 Kingston, 2018, Psychometric examination of treatment change among mentally disordered offenders: A risk–needs analysis, Criminal Justice and Behavior, 45, 153, 10.1177/0093854817743539 Klepfisz, 2016, Understanding dynamic risk factors for violence, Psychology, Crime & Law, 22, 124, 10.1080/1068316X.2015.1109091 Klepfisz, 2014, Violent offenders' within-treatment change in anger, criminal attitudes, and violence risk: Associations with violent recidivism, International Journal of Forensic Mental Health, 13, 348, 10.1080/14999013.2014.951107 Klepfisz Kraemer, 1997, Coming to terms with the terms of risk, Archives of General Psychiatry, 54, 337, 10.1001/archpsyc.1997.01830160065009 Kroner, 2013, Changing risk factors that impact recidivism: In search of mechanisms of change, Law and Human Behavior, 37, 321, 10.1037/lhb0000022 Labrecque, 2014, The importance of reassessment: How changes in the LSI-R risk score can improve the prediction of recidivism, Journal of Offender Rehabilitation, 53, 116, 10.1080/10509674.2013.868389 Latessa, 2010, The role of offender risk assessment: A policy maker guide, Victims & Offenders, 5, 203, 10.1080/15564886.2010.485900 Lipsey, 2007, The effectiveness of correctional rehabilitation: A review of systematic reviews, Annual Review of Law and Social Science, 3, 297, 10.1146/annurev.lawsocsci.3.081806.112833 Mann, 2010, Assessing risk for sexual recidivism: Some proposals on the nature of psychologically meaningful risk factors, Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 22, 191, 10.1177/1079063210366039 Marshall, 2007, The utility of the random controlled trial for evaluating sexual offender treatment: The gold standard or an inappropriate strategy?, Sex Abus, 19, 175, 10.1177/107906320701900207 Mastromanno, 2018, Assessing change in dynamic risk factors in forensic psychiatric inpatients: Relationship with psychopathy and recidivism, The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology, 29, 323, 10.1080/14789949.2017.1377277 Morgan, 2013, Dynamic risk assessment: A validation study, Journal of Criminal Justice, 41, 115, 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2012.11.004 Newsome, 2017, The risk-need-responsivity model revisited: Using biosocial criminology to enhance offender rehabilitation, Criminal Justice and Behavior, 44, 1030, 10.1177/0093854817715289 O'Brien, 2017, Treatment gain in violent offenders: The relationship between proximal outcomes, risk reduction and violent recidivism, Psychiatry, Psychology and Law, 24, 244, 10.1080/13218719.2016.1209804 Olver, 2014, A psychometric examination of treatment change in a multisite sample of treated Canadian federal sexual offenders, Law and Human Behavior, 38, 544, 10.1037/lhb0000086 Olver, 2013, Risk reduction treatment of high-risk psychopathic offenders: The relationship of psychopathy and treatment change to violent recidivism, Personality Disorders, Theory, Research, and Treatment, 4, 160, 10.1037/a0029769 Olver, 2007, The validity and reliability of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version: Assessing sex offender risk and evaluating therapeutic change, Psychological Assessment, 19, 318, 10.1037/1040-3590.19.3.318 Olver, 2014, The predictive and convergent validity of a psychometric battery used to assess sexual offenders in a treatment programme: An 18-year follow-up, Journal of Sexual Aggression, 20, 216, 10.1080/13552600.2013.816791 Olver, 2014, A psychometric examination of treatment change in a multisite sample of treated Canadian federal sexual offenders, Law Hum Behav, 38, 544, 10.1037/lhb0000086 Olver, 2018, Using the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version in sexual violence risk assessments: Updated risk categories and recidivism estimates from a multisite sample of treated sexual offenders, Psychol Assess, 30, 941, 10.1037/pas0000538 Olver, 2011, A comparison of static and dynamic assessment of sexual offender risk and need in a treatment context, Criminal Justice and Behavior, 38, 113, 10.1177/0093854810389534 Olver, 2013, Treatment programs for high risk sexual offenders: Program and offender characteristics, attrition, treatment change and recidivism, Aggression and Violent Behavior, 18, 579, 10.1016/j.avb.2013.06.002 Olver, 2013, A description and research review of the Clearwater Sex Offender Treatment Programme, Psychol Crime Law, 19, 477, 10.1080/1068316X.2013.758983 Polaschek, 2012, An appraisal of the risk–need–responsivity (RNR) model of offender rehabilitation and its application in correctional treatment, Legal and Criminological Psychology, 17, 1, 10.1111/j.2044-8333.2011.02038.x Polaschek, 2004, Rehabilitating serious violent adult offenders: An empirical and theoretical stocktake, Psychology, Crime & Law, 10, 321, 10.1080/10683160410001662807 Rice, 2005, Comparing effect sizes in follow-up studies: ROC area, Cohen's d, and r, Law and Human Behavior, 29, 615, 10.1007/s10979-005-6832-7 Schlager, 2011, An examination of changes in LSI-R scores over time: Making the case for needs-based case management, Criminal Justice and Behavior, 38, 541, 10.1177/0093854811402300 Schmucker, 2015, The effects of sexual offender treatment on recidivism: An international meta-analysis of sound quality evaluations, Journal of Experimental Criminology, 11, 597, 10.1007/s11292-015-9241-z Serin, 2016, Client-based assessment of need and change, 1575 Serin, 2016, Dynamic risk and protective factors, Psychol Crime Law, 22, 151, 10.1080/1068316X.2015.1112013 Serin, 2013, Does intra-individual change predict offender recidivism? Searching for the Holy Grail in assessing offender change, Aggression and Violent Behavior, 18, 32, 10.1016/j.avb.2012.09.002 Sullivan, 2019, Achieving cumulative Progress in understanding crime: Some insights from the philosophy of science, Psychology, Crime & Law, 1 Tan, 2008, Social desirability and sexual offenders, Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 20, 61, 10.1177/1079063208314820 Taxman, 2015, Risk tells us who, but not what or how: Empirical assessment of the complexity of criminogenic needs to inform correctional programming, Criminol Public Policy, 14, 71, 10.1111/1745-9133.12116 Thornton, 2002, Constructing and testing a framework for dynamic risk assessment, Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 14, 139, 10.1177/107906320201400205 Thornton, 2009 Thornton, 2016, Developing a theory of dynamic risk, Psychol Crime Law, 22, 138, 10.1080/1068316X.2015.1109092 Tierney, 2001, An evaluation of self-report measures of cognitive distortions and empathy among Australian sex offenders, Archives of Sexual Behavior, 30, 495, 10.1023/A:1010239217517 van den Berg, 2018, The predictive properties of dynamic sex offender risk assessment instruments: A meta-analysis, Psychological Assessment, 30, 179, 10.1037/pas0000454 Vose, 2013, Predictive validity and the impact of change in total LSI-R score on recidivism, Criminal Justice and Behavior, 40, 1383, 10.1177/0093854813508916 Wakeling, 2013, Investigating treatment change and its relationship to recidivism in a sample of 3773 sex offenders in the UK, Psychology, Crime & Law, 19, 233, 10.1080/1068316X.2011.626413 Ward, 2016, Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs, Psychology, Crime & Law, 22, 2, 10.1080/1068316X.2015.1109094 Ward, 2004, The etiology of risk: A preliminary model, Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 16, 271, 10.1177/107906320401600402 Ward, 2015, Dynamic risk factors: A theoretical dead-end?, Psychology, Crime & Law, 21, 100, 10.1080/1068316X.2014.917854 Ward, 2016, Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs, Psychol Crime Law, 22, 2, 10.1080/1068316X.2015.1109094 Ward, 2019, The classification of offending and crime related problems: A functional perspective, Psychology, Crime & Law, 25, 542, 10.1080/1068316X.2018.1557182 Ward, 2016, The role of dynamic risk factors in the explanation of offending, Aggression and Violent Behavior, 29, 79, 10.1016/j.avb.2016.06.007 Wilkinson, 2005, Evaluating evidence for the effectiveness of the Reasoning and Rehabilitation programme, The Howard Journal of Criminal Justice, 44, 70, 10.1111/j.1468-2311.2005.00356.x Wong, 1999 Wong, 2006, The validity and reliability of the violence risk scale: A treatment-friendly violence risk assessment tool, Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 12, 279, 10.1037/1076-8971.12.3.279 Wooditch, 2014, Which criminogenic need changes are most important in promoting desistance from crime and substance use?, Criminal Justice and Behavior, 41, 276, 10.1177/0093854813503543 Wormith, 2018, The historical roots, current status, and future applications of the risk-need-responsivity model (RNR), 11 Yang, 2017, Assessing associations between changes in risk and subsequent reoffending: An introduction to relevant statistical models, Criminal Justice and Behavior, 44, 59, 10.1177/0093854816678648