Các yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến phát thải carbon dioxide: Nghiên cứu thực nghiệm sử dụng phương pháp phân cụm có phân cấp và không phân cấp

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - Tập 27 - Trang 1-40 - 2019
John Inekwe1, Elizabeth Ann Maharaj2, Mita Bhattacharya3
1Department of Applied Finance, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia
2Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
3Department of Economics, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia

Tóm tắt

Việc giảm thiểu phát thải CO2 đòi hỏi một nỗ lực toàn cầu với trách nhiệm chung nhưng khác biệt. Trong bài báo này, chúng tôi xác định các nhóm phát thải CO2 ở 72 quốc gia. Đầu tiên, bằng cách sử dụng phiên bản ngẫu nhiên của IPAT và áp dụng kỹ thuật hiệu ứng tương quan chung động, chúng tôi xác định ba yếu tố chính ảnh hưởng đến phát thải CO2 (năng lượng không tái tạo, dân số và GDP thực). Trong bước thứ hai, cả phương pháp phân cụm có phân cấp và không phân cấp được xem xét để xác định số lượng nhóm tối ưu. Chúng tôi xác định từ hai đến bốn nhóm với các quốc gia thành viên khác nhau, và đặc biệt, trong hầu hết các trường hợp, giải pháp với 2 nhóm dường như là tối ưu. Nội dung của các nhóm thay đổi nhẹ theo các phương pháp phân cụm cho mỗi khoảng thời gian. Kết quả phân cụm chỉ sử dụng tổng lượng phát thải CO2 cho thấy các quốc gia mà chúng tôi xem xét hình thành ba nhóm, trong đó Trung Quốc và Hoa Kỳ mỗi nước nằm trong một nhóm thành viên duy nhất. 70 quốc gia còn lại tạo thành nhóm thứ ba. Những phát hiện của chúng tôi phản ánh vai trò nổi bật của Trung Quốc và Hoa Kỳ trong tổng phát thải CO2. Phân tích theo các giai đoạn và các nước phát thải lớn nhất phản ánh một cấu trúc phân cụm khác. Một số khuyến nghị chính sách trong việc thiết lập giảm phát thải được đưa ra, xem xét các nhóm khác nhau ở các quốc gia.

Từ khóa

#phát thải carbon dioxide #phân cụm #tác nhân nhân khẩu học #GDP thực #chính sách môi trường

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