Drivers' Mental Representation of Travel Time and Departure Time Choice in Uncertain Traffic Network Conditions
Tóm tắt
The decisions drivers make, such as choice of route or departure time, constitute typical decision making under uncertainty. Drivers' decision making has been studied within the framework of expected utility theory. However, empirical decisional phenomena violating the premise of expected utility theory have been observed repeatedly. These findings have indicated that decision making is critically affected by the decision frame. It has also been pointed out that the uncertainty of outcome is perceived as an interval of possible resultant values. Based on these findings, we propose hypotheses that: (1) a driver perceives an uncertain travel time as an interval, and (2) a driver decides on a departure time based on a decision frame edited by this interval. To test these hypotheses, we collected data on drivers' departure time choice behavior, n = 335. Decisional phenomena found in this study confirm our hypotheses.
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