Do sports stadiums generate crime on days without matches? A natural experiment on the delayed exploitation of criminal opportunities
Tóm tắt
Crime pattern theory claims that busy places generate crime through immediate and delayed exploitation. In delayed exploitation, offenders notice criminal opportunities during opening hours but return to exploit them later. This study investigates delayed exploitation by testing whether soccer stadiums locally increase police-recorded property crime on non-game days. A soccer stadium closure created a natural experiment. We estimate linear regression difference-in-difference models to compare crime rates on non-game days around the stadium, before and after the closure. The closure reduced non-game day property crime beyond the citywide property crime drop. We conclude that criminogenic effects of busy places extend beyond their opening hours, confirming the delayed exploitation mechanism and that crime-prevention strategies should also target these places outside opening hours.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Bernasco, W. 2010. A Sentimental Journey to Crime: Effects of Residential History on Crime Location Choice. Criminology 48: 389–416.
Bernasco, W., and T. Kooistra. 2010. Effects of Residential History on Commercial Robbers’ Crime Location Choices. European Journal of Criminology 7: 251–265.
Bernasco, W., and F. Luykx. 2003. Effects of Attractiveness, Opportunity and Accesibility to Burglars on Residential Burglary Rates of Urban Neighborhoods. Criminology 41: 981–1002.
Brantingham, P.J., and P.L. Brantingham. 1984. Patterns in Crime. New York: Macmillan.
Brantingham, P.J., and P.L. Brantingham. 2003. Anticipating the Displacement of Crime Using the Principles of Environmental Criminology. In Crime Prevention Studies, ed. M.J. Smith, and D.B. Cornish. Monsey: Criminal Justice Press.
Brantingham, P.J., and P.L. Brantingham. 2008. Crime Pattern Theory. In Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis, ed. R. Wortley, L. Mazerolle, and S. Rombouts. Willan: Cullompton.
Brantingham, P.L., and P.J. Brantingham. 1981. Notes on the Geometry of Crime. In Environmental Criminology, ed. P.J. Brantingham and P.L. Brantingham. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications.
Brantingham, P.L., and P.J. Brantingham. 1993. Nodes, Paths and Edges: Considerations on the Complexity of Crime and the Physical Environment. Journal of Environmental Psychology 13: 3–28.
Brantingham, P.L., and P.J. Brantingham. 1995. Criminality of Place: Crime Generators and Crime Attractors. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research 3: 5–26.
Breetzke, G.D., and E.G. Cohn. 2013. Sporting Events and the Spatial Patterning of Crime in South Africa: Local Interpretations and International Implications. Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice 55: 387–420.
Bromley, R.D.F., and A.L. Nelson. 2002. Alcohol-related crime and disorder across urban space and time: evidence from a British city. Geoforum 33: 239–254.
Ceccato, V., and A.C. Uittenbogaard. 2014. Space-Time Dynamics of Crime in Transport Nodes. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 104: 131–150.
City of Ghent. 2017. Gent in Cijfers en in Kaart [Online]. Ghent: City of Ghent. https://stad.gent/over-gent-en-het-stadsbestuur/over-gent/kaarten-cijfers-en-data/gent-cijfers-en-kaart. Accessed 6 Nov 2017
Cromwell, P., J. Olson, and D.A.W. Avary. 1991. Breaking and Entering: An Etnographic Analysis of Burglary. Newbury Park: Sage Publications.
Cromwell, P., J. Olson, and D.A.W. Avary. 1999. Decision Strategies of Residential Burglars. In In Their Own Words: Criminals on Crime, ed. P. Cromwell. Los Angeles: Roxbury.
De Jonghe, T. 2008. The market potential of a club as an indicator for the size of a new relocated football arena: The case KAA Gent. Belgeo 2: 193–216.
Eck, J.E., and D.L. Weisburd, eds. 1995. Crime Places in Crime Theory. In Crime and Place. Monsey: Criminal Justice Press.
Fod Economie Algemene Directie Statistiek - Statistics Belgium. 2017. Fiscale statistiek van de inkomens - 2005-2015 [Online]. Statistics Belgium. Available: http://statbel.fgov.be/nl/modules/publications/statistiques/arbeidsmarkt_levensomstandigheden/Statistique_fiscale_des_revenus.jsp (Accessed November 6, 2017).
Gottfredson, M.R., and T. Hirschi. 1990. A General Theory of Crime. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Groff, E.R. 2011. Exploring ‘near’: Characterizing the spatial extent of drinking place influence on crime. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Criminology 44: 156–179.
Haberman, C.P., and J.H. Ratcliffe. 2015. Testing for temporally differentiated relationships among potentially criminogenic places and census block street robbery counts. Criminology 53: 457–483.
Hardyns, W. 2006. Voetbalcriminaliteit in België anno 2005: Prioriteit of verwaarloosbare overlast? Een kwantitatief onderzoek. Ghent: Master in Criminology, Ghent University.
Irvin-Erickson, Y., and N. La Vigne. 2015. A Spatio-temporal Analysis of Crime at Washington, DC Metro Rail: Stations’ Crime-generating and Crime-attracting Characteristics as Transportation Nodes and Places. Crime Science 4: 1–13.
Kurland, J., S.D. Johnson, and N. Tilley. 2014a. Offenses around Stadiums: A Natural Experiment on Crime Attraction and Generation. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 51: 5–28.
Kurland, J., N. Tilley, and S.D. Johnson. 2014b. The Football ‘Hotspot’ Matrix. In Football Hooliganism, Fan Behaviour and Crime, ed. M. Hopkins, and J. Treadwell. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK.
Lammers, M., B. Menting, S. Ruiter, and W. Bernasco. 2015. Biting once, twice: The influence of past on current crime location choices. Criminology 53: 309–329.
Maguire, M., R. Wright, and T. Bennett. 2010. Domestic Burglary. In Handbook on Crime, ed. F. Brookman, M. Maguire, H. Pierpoint, and T. Bennett. Cullompton: Willan Publishing.
Marie, O. 2016. Police and thieves in the stadium: measuring the (multiple) effects of football matches on crime. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) 179: 273–292.
Menting, B., M. Lammers, S. Ruiter, and W. Bernasco. 2016. Family Matters: Effects of Family Members’ Residential Areas on Crime Location Choice. Criminology 54: 413–433.
Nee, C., and M. Taylor. 1988. Residential Burglary in the Republic of Ireland: A Situational Perspective. The Howard Journal of Criminal Justice 27: 105–116.
Newey, W.K., and K.D. West. 1986. A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelationconsistent covariance matrix. Econometrica 55: 703–708.
Ofcom & Human Capital X. Premier League Football: Research into viewing trends, stadium attendance, fans’ preferences and behaviour, and the commercial market. Analysis Advising the Commission of the European Communities relating to a Proceeding under Article 81 of the EC Treaty in case COMP/C/38.173 - FAPL.
Payton, S.B., T.D. Stucky, and J.R. Ottensmann. 2015. The spatial extent of the effect of foreclosures on crime. Social Science Research 49: 288–298.
Ratcliffe, J.H. 2012a. How Near is Near? Quantifying the Spatial Influence of Crime Attractors and Crime Generators. In Patterns, Prevention, and Geometry of Crime, ed. M.A. Andresen and B. Kinney. New York: Routledge.
Ratcliffe, J.H. 2012b. The Spatial Extent of Criminogenic Places: A Changepoint Regression of Violence around Bars. Geographical Analysis 44: 302–320.
Remler, D.K., and G.G. Van Ryzin. 2014. Research Methods in Practice: Strategies for Description and Causation. Thousand Oaks: Sage.
Roman, C. G. 2005. Routine Activities of Youth and Neighborhood Violence: Spatial Modeling of Place, Time, and Crime. In Geographic Information Systems and Crime Analysis, ed. F. Wang, F. Hershey: Idea Group.
Roman, C.G., and S.E. Reid. 2012. Assessing the Relationship Between Alcohol Outlets and Domestic Violence: Routine Activities and the neighborhood Environment. Violence and Victims 27: 811–828.
Rosenfeld, R., M.J. Deckard, and E. Blackburn. 2014. The effects of directed patrol and self-initiated enforcement on firearm violence: A randomized controlled study of hot spot policing. Criminology 52: 428–449.
Sherman, L.W., P.R. Gartin, and M.E. Buerger. 1989. Hot Spots of Predatory Crime: Routine Activities and the Criminology of Place. Criminology 27: 27–55.
Van Daele, S., and T. Vander Beken. 2011. Out of Sight, Out Of Mind? Awareness Space and Mobile Offenders. European Journal of Crime, Criminal Law and Criminal Justice 19: 125–137.
Weisburd, D.L. 2015. The Law of Crime Concentration and the Criminology of Place. Criminology 53: 133–157.
Wiles, P., and A. Costello. 2000. The ‘Road to Nowhere’: The Evidence for Travelling Criminals. London: Home Office.
Wright, R., and S. Decker. 1994. Burglars on the Job: Street Life and Residential Breakins. Boston: Northeastern University Press.