Do social protection programs foster short-term and long-term migration adaptation strategies?

Environment and Development Economics - Tập 25 Số 2 - Trang 135-158 - 2020
Valerie Mueller1, Clark Gray2, Sudhanshu Handa2, David Seidenfeld3
1Arizona State University, International Food Policy Research Institute, Tempe, Arizona, USA
2University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA;
3American Institutes of Research, Washington, DC, USA

Tóm tắt

AbstractWe examine how migration is influenced by temperature and precipitation variability, and the extent to which the receipt of a cash transfer affects the use of migration as an adaptation strategy. Climate data is merged with georeferenced panel data (2010–2014) on individual migration collected from the Zambian Child Grant Program (CGP) sites. We use the person-year dataset to identify the direct and heterogeneous causal effects of the CGP on mobility. Having access to cash transfers doubles the rate of male, short-distance moves during cool periods, irrespective of wealth. Receipt of cash transfers (among wealthier households) during extreme heat causes an additional retention of males. Cash transfers positively spur long-distance migration under normal climate conditions in the long term. They also facilitate short-distance responses to climate, but not long-distance responses that might be demanded by future climate change.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Kleemans, M (2015) Migration choice under risk and liquidity constraints. Working Paper, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.

10.1162/REST_a_00105

10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.08.002

10.1073/pnas.1317166111

10.2139/ssrn.1543396

Ceballos, F and Robles, M (2014) Weather risks and insurance opportunities for the rural poor. IFPRI 2020 Conference Brief 10, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC.

10.3386/w22159

10.1038/sdata.2015.66

10.1023/B:POEN.0000036928.17696.e8

10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.09.005

10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.07.001

10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.01.008

10.4324/9780203797860-14

UEACRU (University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit), Harris, IC and Jones, PD (2017) CRU TS4.00: Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series

(TS) version 4.00 of high-resolution gridded data of month-by-month variation in climate (Jan. 1901- Dec. 2015). Centre of Environmental Data Analysis, 25 August 2017. Available at https://doi.org/10.5285/edf8febfdaad48abb2cbaf7d7e846a86.

10.1162/REST_a_00487

10.1086/687577

Mbaye, L and Zimmerman, K (2016) Natural disasters and human mobility. ZEF–Center for Development Research, University of Bonn, Working Paper 151.

Chort, I and de la Rupelle, M (2017) Managing the impact of climate change on migration: evidence from Mexico. GLO Discussion Paper No. 78, Global Labor Organization, Maastricht.

10.1016/j.jdeveco.2013.11.009

10.1086/451670

10.1038/478477a

10.1073/pnas.1115944109

Hoddinott, J and Mekasha, T (2017) Social protection, household size and its determinants: evidence from Ethiopia. Ethiopia Strategy Support Program Working Paper 107, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC.

10.1093/wber/lht029

10.1002/pam.21892

10.1086/684579

10.1007/s00148-016-0596-x

10.1007/s00382-012-1423-z

10.1353/dem.2005.0037

10.1162/003355303321675455

2013, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policymakers

10.1007/s10113-017-1224-3

10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.005

Pankhurst, 2013, Food Security, Safety Nets and Social Protection: The Ethiopian Experience, 219

10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.10.031

10.1080/19439342.2017.1377751

Seidenfeld, 2011, Zambia's Child Grant Program: Baseline Report

Bryan, 2014, Under-investment in a profitable technology: the case of seasonal migration in Bangladesh, Econometrica, 82, 1671, 10.3982/ECTA10489

10.1007/s10584-015-1592-y

10.1073/pnas.1002632107

10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.002

10.1038/nclimate2103

Carrington, 1996, Migration with endogenous moving costs, American Economic Review, 86, 909

10.1073/pnas.1320880111

Bazzi, 2017, Wealth heterogeneity and the income elasticity of migration, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 9, 219

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Environment and Development Economics

Tập 25 Số 2

135-158

Thông tin tác giả