Disasters and trade: did Hurricane Katrina affect US imports?
Tóm tắt
Hurricane Katrina (2005) was the most devastating natural disaster in US history since San Francisco in 1906. A budding literature on disasters and trade suggests that while the impact of natural disasters on small and/or developing countries is significant, the effects on developed countries is not significant. This paper adds to the literature by focusing on a single event for a developed country, the US. In so doing, the aggregation problems of panel studies of many disasters over many countries is avoided. The results suggest that while terrible, Katrina’s effect on US imports was not statistically significant. Estimates of the long-run cointegrating relationship of import demand detected neither the presence of extraordinarily more nor less imports during the period studied (1983:1 to 2008:2). Small, short-run decreases, then increases, can be attributed to the direct effect of a small decline in overall economic activity alone. Recent estimates for income and price elasticities are also obtained and the results compared to other recent shocks, namely, the mild recession of 1990–1991 and the recession and trade collapse in 2008.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Andrade da Silva J, Cernat L (2012) Coping with loss: The impact of natural disasters on developing countries’ trade flows. Online article at: http://new.voxeu.org/article/trade-effects-natural-disasters-new-evidence-developing-countries. Last accessed 2013
Campbell JY, Lo A, MacKinlay AC (1997) The econometrics of financial markets. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Caporale GM, Chui MKF (1999) Estimating income and price elasticities of trade in a cointegration framework. Rev Int Econ 7(2):254–264
Cavallo E, Noy I (2010) The economics of natural disasters: a survey. Inter-American Development Bank, IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-124 available online at http://www.iadb.org/res/publications/pubfiles/pubIDB-WP-124.pdf . Last accessed 2013
Ceglowski J (1997) On the structural stability of trade equations: the case of Japan. J Int Money Financ 16(3):491–512
Chow GC (1960) Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions. Econometrica 28:591–605
Crespo Cuaresma J, Hlouskova J, Obersteiner M (2008) Natural disasters as creative destruction? Evidence from developing countries. Econ Inq 46:214–226. doi:10.1111/j.1465-7295.2007.00063.x
Davis DR, Weinstein DE (2002) Bones, bombs, and break points: the geography of economic activity. Am Econ Rev 92:1269–1289
Diewert E (1986) Export supply and import demand functions: a production theory approach. NBER Working Paper w 2011
Dolfman ML, Wasser SF, Bergman B (2007) The effects of hurricane Katrina on the New Orleans economy. US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Monthly Labor Review, June 2007 article available online here: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2007/06/art1full.pdf . Accessed 2013
DuPont W, Noy I (2012) What happened to Kobe? A reassessment of the impact of the 1995 earthquake in Japan. University of Hawai’i at Manoa, Working Paper Series 12–4
Egan M (2013) “Remembering 9/11: Fed raced to smother financial fires”, Fox business news article available online http://www.foxbusiness.com/investing/2013/09/11/remembering-11-fed-raced-to-smother-financial-fires/ last accessed 2013
Gassebner M, Keck A, Teh R (2010) Shaken, not stirred: the impact of disasters on international trade. Rev Int Econ 18(2):351–368
Grenzeback LR, Lukmann AT (2006) Case study of the transportation sector’s response to and recovery from hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Available online at http://www.ardd.org/LIBRARY/DISASTER%20RECOVERY/Case_Study_Katrinatransportation.pdf. Accessed 2013
Johansen S (1995) Likelihood-based inference in Cointegrated vector auto-regressive models. Oxford University Press, New York
Kimura F, Ando M (2012) How did the Japanese exports respond to two crises in the international production networks? The global financial crisis and the great east Japan earthquake. Asian Econ J 26(3):261–287
Lynham J, Noy I (2012) Disaster in paradise: A preliminary investigation of the socio-economic aftermaths of two coastal disasters in Hawaii. University of Hawai’i at Manoa, Working Paper Series 12–17
Maddala GS, Kim I-M (1998) Unit roots, cointegration, and structural change. Cambridge University Press, New York
METI, Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (2012) 2012 White Paper on International Economy and Trade. Available online at: http://www.meti.go.jp/english/report/downloadfiles/2012WhitePaper/2-3.pdf accessed 2013
Orcutt G (1950) Measurement of price elasticities in international trade. Rev Econ Stat 32:117–132
Parsons CR (2014) Japan’s newfound trade deficit: How much of it is due to new energy imports? Working paper at the center for economic and social and studies in Asia (CESSA), CESSA WP 2014–03. Yokohama National University, Japan
Price JE, Thornblade JB (1972) US import demand functions disaggregated by country and commodity. South Econ J 39(1):46–57
Risk Management Solutions (2003) The 1953 UK Flood: 50 Year Retrospective. Available online at: https://support.rms.com/publications/1953_Floods_Retrospective.pdf . Last accessed 2013
Saikkonen P (1991) Asymptotically efficient estimation of cointegration regressions. Econ Theory 7:1–21
Skidmore M, Toya H (2002) Do natural disasters promote long-run growth? Econ Inq 40:664–687
Stock J, Watson M (1993) A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica 61:783–820
Toda H (1994) Finite sample properties of likelihood ratio tests for cointegrating ranks when linear trends are present. Rev Econ Stat 76(1):66–79
Xiao Y, Nilawar U (2013) Winners and losers: analysing post-disaster spatial economic demand shift. Disasters 37(4):646–668