Lợi nhuận phân tách và dự đoán ROE cũng như giá cổ phiếu: một trường hợp của ngành ngân hàng

Review of Accounting and Finance - Tập 5 Số 4 - Trang 443-463 - 2006
PervaizAlam1, Charles A.Brown2
1Department of Accounting, College of Business Administration, Kent State University, Kent, Ohio, USA
2Penn State Erie, The Behrend College, Sam and Irene School of Business, Pennsylvania, USA

Tóm tắt

Mục đíchBài báo này nhằm điều tra xem liệu lợi nhuận phân tách của ngân hàng có dự đoán tốt hơn lợi nhuận kỳ sau so với lợi nhuận gộp cùng thời điểm hay không.Thiết kế/phương pháp/tiếp cậnPhương pháp hồi quy của Fairfield et al. (1996) được sử dụng để dự đoán tỷ suất sinh lợi trên vốn chủ sở hữu (ROE) và giá cổ phiếu kỳ tới sử dụng dữ liệu lợi nhuận phân tách.Kết quảKết quả cho thấy rằng R bình phương điều chỉnh trung bình tăng đáng kể với mức độ phân tách lợi nhuận tăng dần. Các kết quả cũng chỉ ra rằng các thành phần phân tách có khả năng dự đoán lợi nhuận kỳ sau và giá cổ phiếu tốt hơn so với lợi nhuận gộp.Giới hạn/nghĩa lý nghiên cứuCác phát hiện hỗ trợ lập luận của Hội đồng Tiêu chuẩn Kế toán Tài chính Hoa Kỳ rằng thông tin phân tách có thể hữu ích hơn so với thông tin gộp trong các quyết định đầu tư, tín dụng và tài trợ.Ý nghĩa thực tiễnCác nhà đầu tư và nhà phân tích nên sử dụng thông tin báo cáo thu nhập phân tách để dự đoán lợi nhuận và giá cổ phiếu kỳ tới trong ngành ngân hàng.Tính nguyên bản/gá trịĐóng góp chính của bài báo này là chỉ ra cách mà lợi nhuận phân tách đầy đủ giải thích ROE, giá cổ phiếu và sai số dự đoán của các nhà phân tích trong ngành ngân hàng.

Từ khóa


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