Different long‐term trends of extra‐tropical cyclones and windstorms in ERA‐20C and NOAA‐20CR reanalyses

Atmospheric Science Letters - Tập 17 Số 11 - Trang 586-595 - 2016
Daniel J. Befort1, S.B. Wild1, Tim Kruschke2, Uwe Ulbrich3, Gregor C. Leckebusch1
1School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, UK
2Department of Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics Research Unit Marine Meteorology, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Germany
3Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany

Tóm tắt

Abstract

NOAA 20th century and ERA‐20C reanalysis datasets are evaluated regarding the representation of extra‐tropical cyclones and windstorms over the Northern and Southern Hemisphere during the respective 6‐month winter seasons. The results indicate substantial differences in low‐frequency variability between the two datasets – especially in the first half of the 20th century – expressed in different signs and/or magnitudes of long‐term trends. This is hampering a reliable analysis of real long‐term trends of cyclone and windstorm activity. However, higher‐frequency variability is in good agreement between both datasets especially for the Northern Hemisphere.

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