Development of a Bayesian event tree for short-term eruption onset forecasting at Taupō volcano

Acocella, 2015, An overview of recent (1988 to 2014) caldera unrest: Knowledge and perspectives, Rev. Geophys., 53, 896, 10.1002/2015RG000492 Adams, 2006, The transition from explosive to effusive eruptive regime: the example of the 1912 Novarupta eruption, Alaska, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 118, 620, 10.1130/B25768.1 Allan, 2017, A cascade of magmatic events during the assembly and eruption of a super-sized magma body, Contrib. Miner. Petrol., 172, 49, 10.1007/s00410-017-1367-8 Aspinall, W., Cooke, R., 1998. Expert Judgement and the Montserrat Volcano Eruption, pp. 2113–2118. Barberi, 1992, A review on phreatic eruptions and their precursors, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 52, 231, 10.1016/0377-0273(92)90046-G Barker, 2020, Taupō: an overview of New Zealand’s youngest supervolcano, NZ J. Geol. Geophys., 1 Barker, 2015, Fine-scale temporal recovery, reconstruction and evolution of a post-supereruption magmatic system, Contrib. Miner. Petrol., 170, 5, 10.1007/s00410-015-1155-2 Basualto, 2008, Seismic Activity Related to the Evolution of the Explosive Eruption of Chaiten Volcano in the Southern Andes Volcanic Zone, Eos Trans. Am. Geophy. Union, 89 Bebbington, 2020, Temporal-volume probabilistic hazard model for a supervolcano: Taupo, New Zealand, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 536, 10.1016/j.epsl.2020.116141 Bebbington, 2011, Stochastic models for earthquake triggering of volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth, 116, 10.1029/2010JB008114 Bebbington, 2018, National-level long-term eruption forecasts by expert elicitation, Bull. Volcanol., 80, 56, 10.1007/s00445-018-1230-4 Bebbington, 2016, Dynamic Uncertainty in Cost-Benefit Analysis of Evacuation Prior to a Volcanic Eruption, Math. Geosci., 48, 123, 10.1007/s11004-015-9615-9 Bibby, 1995, Geophysical evidence on the structure of the Taupo Volcanic Zone and its hydrothermal circulation, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 68, 29, 10.1016/0377-0273(95)00007-H Biggs, 2014, Global link between deformation and volcanic eruption quantified by satellite imagery, Nat. Commun., 5, 3471, 10.1038/ncomms4471 Brancato, 2011, Application of BET_EF to Mount Etna: A retrospective analysis (Years 2001–2005), Ann. Geophys., 54, 642 Brancato, 2012, Quantifying probabilities of eruption at a well-monitored active volcano: An application to Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy), Boll. Geofis. Teor. Appl., 53, 55 Browne, 2001, Characteristics of hydrothermal eruptions, with examples from New Zealand and elsewhere, Earth Sci. Rev., 52, 299, 10.1016/S0012-8252(00)00030-1 Burris, 2008 Carn, 2009, The unexpected awakening of Chaitén Volcano, Chile, Eos Trans. Am. Geophys. Union, 90, 205, 10.1029/2009EO240001 Castro, 2009, Rapid ascent of rhyolitic magma at Chaitén volcano, Chile, Nature, 461, 780, 10.1038/nature08458 Charlier, 2005, Magma Generation at a Large, Hyperactive Silicic Volcano (Taupo, New Zealand) Revealed by U-Th and U–Pb Systematics in Zircons, J. Petrol., 46, 3, 10.1093/petrology/egh060 Clarke, 2019, The relation between viscosity and acoustic emissions as a laboratory analogue for volcano seismicity, Geology, 47, 499, 10.1130/G45446.1 Colson, 2018, Expert Elicitation: Using the Classical Model to Validate Experts’ Judgments, Rev. Environ. Econ. Policy, 12, 113, 10.1093/reep/rex022 Connor, 2001, Estimation of Volcanic Hazards from Tephra Fallout, Nat. Hazards Rev., 2, 33, 10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2001)2:1(33) Constantinescu, 2016, Application of the probabilistic model BET_UNREST during a volcanic unrest simulation exercise in Dominica, Lesser Antilles, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 17, 4438, 10.1002/2016GC006485 Constantinescu, 2015, Tracking volcanic unrest at cotopaxi, ecuador: The use of the bet_ef tool during unrest simulation exercise, Geophys. Res. Abstr. EGU General Assembly, 17, 2015 Cooke, 1991 Davy, 1998, Gravity, magnetic and seismic surveys of the caldera complex, Lake Taupo, North Island, New Zealand, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 81, 69, 10.1016/S0377-0273(97)00074-7 De Ronde, 2002, Discovery of active hydrothermal venting in Lake Taupo, New Zealand, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 115, 257, 10.1016/S0377-0273(01)00332-8 Endo, 1996, 233 Fournier, 2013, From subduction processes to volcanic unrest: unraveling domino effects at Lake Taupo caldera, New Zealand (Invited), 2013, V44C Gottsmann, 2019, Volcanic Unrest and Pre-eruptive Processes: A Hazard and Risk Perspective, 1 Illsley-Kemp, 2021, Volcanic unrest at Taupō volcano in 2019: causes, mechanisms and implications, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 22, 10.1029/2021GC009803 Johnston, 2002, Social and economic consequences of historic caldera unrest at the Taupo volcano, New Zealand and the management of future episodes of unrest, Bull. N. Z. Soc. Earthq. Eng., 35(4 Jolly, 2008, What constitutes unrest at Taupo caldera, New Zealand?, 2008, V44A Kennedy, 2018, Magma plumbing beneath collapse caldera volcanic systems, Earth Sci. Rev., 177, 404, 10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.12.002 Lavigne, 2000, Instrumental lahar monitoring at Merapi Volcano, Central Java, Indonesia, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 100, 457, 10.1016/S0377-0273(00)00151-7 Lee, 2018, A review on volcanic gas compositions related to volcanic activities and non-volcanological effects, Geosci. J. (Seoul, Korea), 22, 183 Lindsay, 2010, Towards real-time eruption forecasting in the Auckland Volcanic Field: application of BET_EF during the New Zealand National Disaster Exercise ‘Ruaumoko’, Bull. Volcanol., 72, 185, 10.1007/s00445-009-0311-9 Manga, 2006, Seismic Triggering of Eruptions in the Far Field: Volcanoes and Geysers, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 34, 263, 10.1146/annurev.earth.34.031405.125125 Manville, 2009, Environmental impact of the 1.8 ka Taupo eruption, New Zealand: Landscape responses to a large-scale explosive rhyolite eruption, Sed. Geol., 220, 318, 10.1016/j.sedgeo.2009.04.017 Marzocchi, 2012, Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales, Bull. Volcanol., 74, 1777, 10.1007/s00445-012-0633-x Marzocchi, 2012, The scientific management of volcanic crises, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 247–248, 181, 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2012.08.016 Marzocchi, 2004, Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: The example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius, J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth, 109, 10.1029/2004JB003155 Marzocchi, 2008, BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting, Bull. Volcanol., 70, 623, 10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y Marzocchi, 2007, Probabilistic eruption forecasting and the call for an evacuation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, 10.1029/2007GL031922 Marzocchi, 2009, Principles of volcanic risk metrics: Theory and the case study of Mount Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, Italy, J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth, 114, 10.1029/2008JB005908 Massey, 2010, Out-burst flood (lahar) triggered by retrogressive landsliding, 18 March 2007 at Mt Ruapehu, New Zealand—a successful early warning, Landslides, 7, 303, 10.1007/s10346-009-0180-5 Menyailov, 1986, Temperature increase and chemical change of fumarolic gases at Momotombo Volcano, Nicaragua, in 1982–1985: Are these indicators of a possible eruption?, J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth, 91, 12199, 10.1029/JB091iB12p12199 Newhall, 2002, Constructing event trees for volcanic crises, Bull. Volcanol., 64, 3, 10.1007/s004450100173 Newhall, 2001, Roles of groundwater in volcanic unrest, J. Geol. Soc. Philippines, 56, 69 Newhall, 1988, 1 Newhall, 2015, Using Multiple Data Sets to Populate Probabilistic Volcanic Event Trees, 203 Oskarsson, 1984, Monitoring of fumarole discharge during the 1975–1982 rifting in Krafla volcanic center, north Iceland, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 22, 97, 10.1016/0377-0273(84)90036-2 Otway, 1989, Vertical Deformation Monitoring by Periodic Water Level Observations, Lake Taupo, New Zealand, 561 Otway, 2002, Vertical deformation at Lake Taupo, New Zealand, from lake levelling surveys, 1979–99, NZ J. Geol. Geophys., 45, 121, 10.1080/00288306.2002.9514964 Otway, 1994, Vertical deformation and shallow seismicity around Lake Taupo, New Zealand, 1985–90, NZ J. Geol. Geophys., 37, 195, 10.1080/00288306.1994.9514614 Pallister, 2015, Synthesis of Volcano Monitoring, 1151 Peltier, 2009, Structures involved in the vertical deformation at Lake Taupo (New Zealand) between 1979 and 2007: New insights from numerical modelling, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 181, 173, 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2009.01.017 Phillipson, 2013, Global volcanic unrest in the 21st century: an analysis of the first decade, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 264, 183, 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.08.004 Pierson, 2014, Reducing risk from lahar hazards: concepts, case studies, and roles for scientists, J. Appl. Volcanol., 3, 16, 10.1186/s13617-014-0016-4 Poland, 2020, Partly Cloudy With a Chance of Lava Flows: Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions in the Twenty-First Century, J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth, 125, 10.1029/2018JB016974 Potter, S.H., Scott, B.J., GE, J., 2012. Caldera Unrest Management Sourcebook. GNS Science Report, 2012/12. Potter, 2015, A catalogue of caldera unrest at Taupo Volcanic Centre, New Zealand, using the Volcanic Unrest Index (VUI), Bull. Volcanol., 77, 78, 10.1007/s00445-015-0956-5 Pritchard, 2019, Thoughts on the criteria to determine the origin of volcanic unrest as magmatic or non-magmatic, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A: Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 377, 20180008, 10.1098/rsta.2018.0008 Rinawati, D.I., Sari, D.P., Handayani, N.U., Siwi, B.R., 2018. Predicting the probability of Mount Merapi eruption using Bayesian Event Tree_Eruption Forecasting. MATEC Web of Conferences, 154. Rosenberg, 2020, Structure and evolution of the Wairakei-Tauhara geothermal system (Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand) revisited with a new zircon geochronology, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 390, 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2019.106705 Rouwet, 2014, Recognizing and tracking volcanic hazards related to non-magmatic unrest: a review, J. Appl. Volcanol., 3, 17, 10.1186/s13617-014-0017-3 Rowe, G., Wright, G., 2001. Expert Opinions in Forecasting: The Role of the Delphi Technique. In: Armstrong, J.S. (Ed.), Principles of Forecasting, pp. 125–144. Sahetapy-Engel, 2014, Deposition and generation of multiple widespread fall units from the c. AD 1314 Kaharoa rhyolitic eruption, Tarawera, New Zealand, Bull. Volcanol., 76(8):836 Sandri, 2017, Searching for patterns in caldera unrest, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 18, 2748, 10.1002/2017GC006870 Sandri, 2009, Bayesian event tree for eruption forecasting (BET_EF) at Vesuvius, Italy: a retrospective forward application to the 1631 eruption, Bull. Volcanol., 71, 729, 10.1007/s00445-008-0261-7 Sandri, 2012, Combining long- and short-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand, Bull. Volcanol., 74, 705, 10.1007/s00445-011-0556-y Sandri, 2004, A new perspective in identifying the precursory patterns of eruptions, Bull. Volcanol., 66, 10.1007/s00445-003-0309-7 Sandri, 2017 Selva, 2012, Operational eruption forecasting at high-risk volcanoes: the case of Campi Flegrei, Naples, J. Appl. Volcanol., 1, 5, 10.1186/2191-5040-1-5 Seropian, 2021, A review framework of how earthquakes trigger volcanic eruptions, Nat. Commun., 12, 1004, 10.1038/s41467-021-21166-8 Shcherbakov, 2004, A generalized Omori’s law for earthquake aftershock decay, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, 10.1029/2004GL019808 Sherburn, 1992, Seismicity of the Lake Taupo region, New Zealand, 1985–90, NZ J. Geol. Geophys., 35, 331, 10.1080/00288306.1992.9514526 Shinohara, 2002, Degassing activity from Iwodake rhyolitic cone, Satsuma-Iwojima volcano, Japan: Formation of a new degassing vent, 1990–1999, Earth Planet. Space, 54, 175, 10.1186/BF03353017 Soosalu, 2005, Seismic activity related to the 2000 eruption of the hekla volcano, Iceland, Bull. Volcanol., 68, 21, 10.1007/s00445-005-0417-7 Sparks, 2003, Forecasting volcanic eruptions, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 210, 1, 10.1016/S0012-821X(03)00124-9 Sparks, 2017, Dynamic Magma Systems: Implications for Forecasting Volcanic Activity, Elements, 13, 35, 10.2113/gselements.13.1.35 Stagpoole, 2021, A two million-year history of rifting and caldera volcanism imprinted in new gravity anomaly compilation of the Taupō Volcanic Zone, New Zealand, NZ J. Geol. Geophys., 1 Stix, 2018, Understanding and forecasting phreatic eruptions driven by magmatic degassing, Earth Planet. Space, 70, 83, 10.1186/s40623-018-0855-z Sutton, 1995, An outline geochemistry of rhyolite eruptives from Taupo volcanic centre, New Zealand, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 68, 153, 10.1016/0377-0273(95)00011-I Tabayag, 2010, Disaster risk reduction through land use planning in lahar-devastated footslopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay [Philippines], Int. Soc. Southeast Asian Agric. Sci. (Philippines), 16 Taran, 1995, Geochemistry of magmatic gases from Kudryavy volcano, Iturup, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, 59, 1749, 10.1016/0016-7037(95)00079-F Thompson, 1960 Tierz, 2020, Event Trees and Epistemic Uncertainty in Long-Term Volcanic Hazard Assessment of Rift Volcanoes: The Example of Aluto (Central Ethiopia), Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 21, 10.1029/2020GC009219 Tierz, 2017, A Framework for Probabilistic Multi-Hazard Assessment of Rain-Triggered Lahars Using Bayesian Belief Networks, Front. Earth Sci., 5, 10.3389/feart.2017.00073 Tonini, 2016, A new Bayesian Event Tree tool to track and quantify volcanic unrest and its application to Kawah Ijen volcano, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 17, 2539, 10.1002/2016GC006327 White, 2016, Volcano-tectonic earthquakes: a new tool for estimating intrusive volumes and forecasting eruptions, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 309, 139, 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.10.020 Whitehead, 2021, Method selection in short-term eruption forecasting, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 419, 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2021.107386 Wilson, 1993, Stratigraphy, Chronology, Styles and Dynamics of Late Quaternary Eruptions from Taupo Volcano, New Zealand, Philos. Trans.: Phys. Sci. Eng., 343, 205 Wilson, 2001, The 26.5 ka Oruanui eruption, New Zealand: An introduction and overview, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 112, 133, 10.1016/S0377-0273(01)00239-6 Wilson, 2006, The 26.5 ka Oruanui eruption, Taupo Volcano, New Zealand: Development, characteristics and evacuation of a large rhyolitic magma body, J. Petrol., 47, 35, 10.1093/petrology/egi066 Wilson, 2009, Rapid Rates of Magma Generation at Contemporaneous Magma Systems, Taupo Volcano, New Zealand: Insights from U-Th Model-age Spectra in Zircons, J. Petrol., 50, 875, 10.1093/petrology/egp023 Wilson, 2016, The volcanic, magmatic and tectonic setting of the Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand, reviewed from a geothermal perspective, Geothermics, 59, 168, 10.1016/j.geothermics.2015.06.013