Delphi: A brief look backward and forward

Elsevier BV - Tập 78 Số 9 - Trang 1712-1719 - 2011
Harold A. Linstone1, Murray Turoff2
1Portland State University, P.O. Box 751, Portland, OR 97207, United States
2New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ 07102, United States

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

RAND Report P-2982 (Sept.1964) Report on a Long-Range Forecasting Study by Ted Gordon and Olaf Helmer. (For a sample of the results described in this report, see Linstone (1999), pp. 286-287.}

Turoff, 1970, The design of a policy Delphi, Technological Forecasting Social Change, vol. 2, 149, 10.1016/0040-1625(70)90161-7

Turoff, 1971, Delphi conferencing: computer-based conferencing with anonymity, Technological Forecasting Social Change, vol. 3, 159, 10.1016/S0040-1625(71)80012-4

1975

White, 2007, A dynamic Delphi process utilizing a modified Thurstone scaling method: collaborative judgment in emergency response

Turoff, 2009, The past, present, and future of Delphi, 32

Turoff, 2009, The future of professional communities of practice, vol. 22, 144

Gordon, 2006, An efficient, “round-less” almost real-time Delphi method, Technological Forecasting Social Change, vol. 73, 321, 10.1016/j.techfore.2005.09.005

Fjermestad, 1998, An assessment of group support systems experimental research: methodology and results, Journal of Management Information Systems (JMIS), 15, 7, 10.1080/07421222.1998.11518216

Fjermestad, 2000, Group support systems: a descriptive evaluation of case and field studies, Journal of Management Information Systems, 17, 112

Hiltz, 1993

Churchman, 1971

Turoff, 1990, Computer mediated communication requirements for group support, Journal of Organizational Computing, vol. 1, 10.1080/10919399109540151

Turoff, 1997, Virtuality, CACM, vol. 40, 38, 10.1145/260750.260761

Hiltz, 1985, Structuring computer-mediated communication systems to avoid information overload, Communications of the ACM, July 28, 680, 10.1145/3894.3895

Turoff, 1993, Distributed group support systems, Management Information Systems Quarterly (MISQ), 399, 10.2307/249585

Turoff, M., Hiltz, S.R., Li, Z., Wang, Y., & Cho, H., “The Delphi Process as a Collaborative Learning Method,” in Moore, J.C. (ed.): (edited by J. C. Moore) Elements of Quality Online Education: Into the Mainstream: Wisdom from the Sloan Consortium, 121-134. Needham, MA: Sloan-C, Needham, MA September 2004, pp 121-134.

Turoff, 2006

Coates, 2010, “Strategic Foresight” issue, Technological Forecasting Social Change, vol. 77, 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.08.001

Coates, 1975, “In Defense of Delphi: A Review of Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting, and Group Process” by H. Sackman, Technological Forecasting Social Change, 7, 193, 10.1016/0040-1625(75)90058-X

Linstone, 1979, The use of structural modeling for technology assessment, Technological Forecasting Social Change, vol. 14, 291, 10.1016/0040-1625(79)90032-5

Lendaris, 1980, Structural modeling—a tutorial guide, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, SMC-10, 34

Turoff, 1971, Delphi and its potential impact on information systems, vol. 39

Bañuls, V. A., Turoff, M., and Lopez, J., Clustering Scenarios using Cross-Impact Analysis, Published in the proceedings of ISCRAM 2010, Seattle, May (available at iscram.org).

Allison, 1971

Linstone, 1984

Linstone, 1999

Turoff, 2009, The past as the future of emergency preparedness and management, Journal of Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, 1, 12, 10.4018/jiscrm.2009010102

Van de Walle, 2008, Decision support for emergency situations

Weick, 2001

2010, Information systems for emergency management

Lindblom, 1959, The science of muddling through, Public Administration Review, 79, 10.2307/973677

Lindblom, 1979, Still muddling, not yet through, Public Administration Review, 517, 10.2307/976178

Goldschmidt, 1972, Scientific Inquiry or Political Critique: Review of the Sackman Report, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 7, 195, 10.1016/0040-1625(75)90059-1

New York Times, August 17, 2010, p. D-2.

New York Times, August 24, 2010.