Decision-based interactive model to determine re-opening conditions of a large university campus in Belgium during the first COVID-19 wave

Archives of Public Health - 2022
Vincent Denoël1, Olivier Bruyère2, Gilles Louppe3, Fabrice Bureau4, Vincent D’Orio5, Sébastien Fontaine6, Laurent Gillet7, Michèle Guillaume8, Éric Haubruge9, Anne-Catherine Lange10, Fabienne Michel10, Romain Van Hulle1, Maarten Arnst11, Anne‐Françoise Donneau8, Claude Saegerman12
1Structural & Stochastic Dynamics, Faculty of Applied Sciences, University of Liège, Belgium, Allée de la découverte 9, B-4000, Liège, Belgium
2WHO Collaborating Centre for Public Health Aspects of Musculo-Skeletal Health and Ageing, Liège, Belgium
3Montefiore Institute, Faculty of Applied Sciences, University of Liège, Allée de la Découverte 10, B-4000, Liège, Belgium
4Laboratory of Cellular and Molecular Immunology, GIGA Institute, ULiège, 4000, Liège, Belgium
5Research Unit in Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Liège and University Hospital of Liège, Liège, Belgium
6Institute for Research in Social Sciences (IRSS), Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Liège, Place des Orateurs, 3, B-4000, Liège, Belgium
7Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, ULiège, 4000, Liège, Belgium
8Research Unit in Biostatistics and Research Methods, University of Liège, Quartier Hôpital, Av. Hippocrate 13, CHU B23, 4000, Liège, Belgium
9Terra Research Center, Gembloux AgroBioTech, University of Liege, Passage des Deportes, 2, B-5030, Gembloux, Belgium
10Récolte et Analyse de Données et d’Information d’Utilité Stratégique (RADIUS), University of Liège, Place du 20-Août, 7, 4000, Liège, Belgium
11Computational and stochastic modelling, Faculty of Applied Sciences, University of Liège, Allée de la découverte 9, B-4000, Liège, Belgium
12Fundamental and Applied Research for Animal and Health (FARAH) Center, Liège University, Liège, Belgium

Tóm tắt

Abstract Background The role played by large-scale repetitive SARS-CoV-2 screening programs within university populations interacting continuously with an urban environment, is unknown. Our objective was to develop a model capable of predicting the dispersion of viral contamination among university populations dividing their time between social and academic environments. Methods Data was collected through real, large-scale testing developed at the University of Liège, Belgium, during the period Sept. 28th-Oct. 29th 2020. The screening, offered to students and staff (n = 30,000), began 2 weeks after the re-opening of the campus but had to be halted after 5 weeks due to an imposed general lockdown. The data was then used to feed a two-population model (University + surrounding environment) implementing a generalized susceptible-exposed-infected-removed compartmental modeling framework. Results The considered two-population model was sufficiently versatile to capture the known dynamics of the pandemic. The reproduction number was estimated to be significantly larger on campus than in the urban population, with a net difference of 0.5 in the most severe conditions. The low adhesion rate for screening (22.6% on average) and the large reproduction number meant the pandemic could not be contained. However, the weekly screening could have prevented 1393 cases (i.e. 4.6% of the university population; 95% CI: 4.4–4.8%) compared to a modeled situation without testing. Conclusion In a real life setting in a University campus, periodic screening could contribute to limiting the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic cycle but is highly dependent on its environment.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Weeden KA, Cornwell B. The small-world network of college classes: implications for epidemic spread on a university campus. Soc Sci. 2020;7(9):222–41. https://doi.org/10.15195/v7.a9.

Wilson E, Donovan CV, Campbell M, Chai T, Pittman K, Sena AC, et al. Multiple COVID-19 clusters on a university campus - North Carolina, august 2020. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2020;69(39):1416–8. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6939e3.

Paltiel AD, Zheng A, Walensky RP. Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 screening strategies to permit the safe reopening of college campuses in the United States. JAMA Netw Open. 2020;3(7):e2016818. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.16818.

Walke HT, Honein MA, Redfield RR. Preventing and responding to COVID-19 on college campuses. JAMA. 2020;324, 17:1727. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.20027.

Mohamadou Y, Halidou A, Kapen PT. A review of mathematical modeling, artificial intelligence and datasets used in the study, prediction and management of COVID-19. Appl Intell. 2020;50(11):3913–25. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10489-020-01770-9.

Davies NG, Klepac P, Liu Y, Prem K, Jit M, Eggo RM. Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics. Nat Med. 2020;26(8):1205–11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-0962-9.

Willem L, Abrams S, Libin PJ, Coletti P, Kuylen E, Petrof O, et al. The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19. Nat Commun. 2021;12(1):1–9.

Abrams S, Wambua J, Santermans E, Willem L, Kuylen E, Coletti P, et al. Modelling the early phase of the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic using a stochastic compartmental model and studying its implied future trajectories. Epidemics. 2021;35:100449. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100449.

Chang JT, Crawford FW, Kaplan EH. Repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing models for residential college populations. Health Care Manag Sci. 2020;

Chen. Multiple curve fitting with common parameters using NLINFIT. (https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/40613-multiple-curve-fitting-with-common-parameters-using-nlinfit), MATLAB Central File Exchange Retrieved February 25, 2021 2021.

ORBi, Open Repository and Bibliography, www.orbi.uliege.be, University of Liège.

Saegerman C, Donneau AF, Speybroeck N, Diep AN, Williams A, Stamatakis L, et al. Repetitive saliva-based mass screening as a tool for controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in nursing homes. Transbound Emerg Dis. 2021; https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.14280. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 34357691; PMCID: PMC8446975

Sciensano.be. Healthy all life long (Internet) [Available from: https://www.sciensano.be/en.]

Cheng SY, Wang CJ, Shen AC, Chang SC. How to safely reopen colleges and universities during COVID-19: experiences from Taiwan. Ann Intern Med. 2020;173(8):638–41. https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-2927.

Yamey G, Walensky RP. Covid-19: re-opening universities is high risk. BMJ. 2020;370:m3365.

Independent SAGE Statement on universities in the context of SARS-CoV-2 [cited 2020 Sept 3]. Available from: https://www.independentsage.org/university_final_sept/.

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Archives of Public Health

Thông tin tác giả