Coupled coordination of water resources–economy–ecosystem complex in the Henan section of the Yellow River basin

Water Science and Technology: Water Supply - Tập 22 Số 12 - Trang 8835-8848 - 2022
Shunsheng Wang1, Jinyue Yang2, Aili Wang2, Yongfang Yan3, Tengfei Liu2
1Collaborative Innovation Center for Efficient Utilization of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, China
2School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, China
3Henan Vocational College of Water Conservancy and Environment, Zhengzhou, China

Tóm tắt

Abstract This study investigates the coordination of factors in the three coupled systems of water resources, economy and ecosystem. The study data were economic, social, environmental and water resource indicators of the Henan section of the Yellow River basin from 2000 to 2019. Data were analyzed using a model of coupling coordination, grey relational analysis and a combined sparrow search algorithm–back propagation (SSA-BP) prediction model. Evaluation, analysis and prediction of the water resources–economy–ecosystem complex were undertaken. The results show that: (1) the degree of coupling coordination of the water resources–economy–ecosystem complex in the Henan section of the Yellow River basin showed an increasing trend that reached 0.8105 in 2019, which indicates good coordination; (2) the water resources subsystem had the greatest influence on the overall degree of coupling coordination, followed by the economic and natural environment subsystems; and (3) the SSA-BP model predicted that the degree of coupling coordination would remain good for the next six years and reach 0.8333 in 2025. To ensure the sustainability of expected rapid economic development, Henan Province must increase the utilization efficiency of water resources, strengthen environmental protection, and coordinate development in the region.

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