Những mâu thuẫn trong mối quan hệ giữa con người và tự nhiên đe dọa sự phục hồi và bền vững ven biển ở khu vực Bột Hải, Trung Quốc

Jingjing Xu1,2, Mei Gai1,2, Xiaolu Yan1,2, Yumei Xu3, Peng Yue2,1
1Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences of Ministry of Education, Institute of Marine Sustainable Development, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian, China
2University Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Economy High-Quality Development of Liaoning Province, Dalian, China
3School of Geographical Sciences, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian, China

Tóm tắt

Dưới thách thức của biến đổi môi trường toàn cầu và sự phát triển nhanh chóng, các rủi ro khổng lồ do thiên tai và hoạt động của con người đã gia tăng áp lực môi trường cho sự phát triển bền vững. Cách cải thiện khả năng phục hồi ven biển trong quá trình phát triển đô thị đã trở thành một chủ đề quan trọng trong học thuật. Trong nghiên cứu này, một mô hình nhận dạng mờ biến đổi được sử dụng để đo lường mức độ khả năng phục hồi ven biển ở 17 thành phố trong khu vực Bột Hải, sau đó mật độ hạt nhân, chỉ số Thiel và mô hình rừng ngẫu nhiên được sử dụng để khám phá các đặc điểm không gian-thời gian và các yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến khả năng phục hồi ven biển. Kết quả cho thấy rằng (1) Mức độ khả năng phục hồi tổng thể của khu vực Bột Hải đang gia tăng theo thời gian, nhưng ở mức độ tương đối chậm. (2) Khả năng phục hồi ven biển có sự không đồng đều rõ rệt về mặt không gian, với các thành phố có mức độ cao chủ yếu là Thiên Tân, Thanh Đảo, Yên Đài, v.v. và các thành phố có mức độ thấp chủ yếu là Tăng Châu, Bản Kinh, Ninh Khẩu, Bân Châu, v.v. (3) Ảnh hưởng của phát triển kinh tế, hạ tầng cơ sở, khả năng đổi mới, đầu tư công nghệ và quy định của chính phủ đến khả năng phục hồi ven biển giảm dần theo thứ tự. Dựa trên những phát hiện nghiên cứu, nghiên cứu không chỉ có thể đưa ra các đề xuất cho chiến lược điều chỉnh thực tế mà còn cung cấp kinh nghiệm thực nghiệm và lý thuyết cho các quốc gia ven biển khác.

Từ khóa

#khả năng phục hồi ven biển #phát triển bền vững #biến đổi môi trường #mô hình nhận dạng mờ #chỉ số Thiel #rừng ngẫu nhiên

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