Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England

Climatic Change - Tập 92 Số 1-2 - Trang 41-63 - 2009
Alison L. Kay1, Helen Davies1, Victoria A. Bell1, Richard Jones2
1Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
2University of Reading

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Alila Y, Mtiraoui A (2002) Implications of heterogeneous flood-frequency distributions on traditional stream-discharge prediction techniques. Hydrol Process 16:1065–1084

Arnell NW (1999) The effect of climate change on hydrological regimes in Europe: a continental perspective. Glob Environ Change 9:5–23

Arnell NW (2003) Relative effects of multi-decadal climatic variability and changes in the mean and variability of climate due to global warming: future streamflows in Britain. J Hydrol 270:195–213

Arnell NW, Hudson D, Jones RG (2003) Climate change scenarios from a regional climate model: estimating change in runoff in southern Africa. J Geophys Res 108(D16):4519. doi: 10.1029/2002JD002782

Bayliss A, Jones R (1992) The peaks-over-threshold database at the Institute of Hydrology. Report to UK Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Institute of Hydrology, Wallingford, 74 pp

Begueria S (2005) Uncertainties in partial duration series modelling of extremes related to the choice of the threshold value. J Hydrol 303:215–230

Bell VA, Kay AL, Jones RG, Moore RJ (2007a) Development of a high resolution grid-based river flow model for use with regional climate model output. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11:532–549

Bell VA, Kay AL, Jones RG, Moore RJ (2007b) Use of a grid-based hydrological model and regional climate model outputs to assess changing flood risk. Int J Climatol 27(12):1657–1671

Beven KJ (2001) Calibration, validation and equifinality in hydrological modelling. In: Anderson MG, Bates PD (eds) Model validation: perspectives in hydrological science. Wiley, Chichester, pp 43–44

Booij MJ (2005) Impact of climate change on flooding assessed with different spatial model resolutions. J Hydrol 303:176–198

Cameron D (2006) An application of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios to flood estimation by continuous simulation for a gauged catchment in the northeast of Scotland, UK (with uncertainty). J Hydrol 328:212–226

Cameron D, Beven K, Naden P (2000) Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation under climate change (with uncertainty). Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 4:393–405

Christensen JH, Carter TR, Rummukainen M, Amanatidis G (2007) Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the PRUDENCE project. Clim Change 81:1–6

Déqué M, Rowell DP, Lüthi D, Giorgi F, Christensen JH, Rockel B, Jacob D, Kjellström E, de Castro M, van den Hurk B (2007) An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections. Clim Change 81:53–70

Durman CF, Gregory JM, Hassell DC, Jones RG, Murphy JM (2001) A comparison of extreme European daily precipitation simulated by a global and a regional climate model for present and future climates. Q J R Meteorol Soc 127(573):1005–1015

Ekstrom M, Jones PD, Fowler HJ, Lenderink G, Buishand TA, Conway D (2007) Regional climate model data used within the SWURVE project 1: projected changes in seasonal patterns and estimation of PET. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11(3):1069–1083

Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG (2007) Using regional climate model data to simulate historical and future river flows in northwest England. Clim Change 80:337–367

Graham LP, Andreasson J, Carlsson B (2007a) Assessing climate change impacts on hydrology from an ensemble of regional climate models, model scales and linking methods—a case study on the Lule River basin. Clim Change 81:293–307

Graham LP, Hageman S, Jaun S, Beniston M (2007b) On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models. Clim Change 81:97–122

Hosking JRM, Wallis JR (1987) Parameter and quantile estimation for the generalised pareto distribution. Technometrics 29:339–349

Hough M, Palmer S, Weir A, Lee M, Barrie I (1997) The meteorological office rainfall and evaporation calculation system: MORECS version 2.0 (1995). An update to Hydrological Memorandum 45. The Met. Office, Bracknell

Hulme M, Barrow EM, Arnell NW, Harrison PA, Johns TC, Downing TE (1999) Relative impacts of human-induced climate change and natural climate variability. Nature 397:688–691

Hulme M, Jenkins GJ, Lu X, Turnpenny JR, Mitchell TD, Jones RG, Lowe J, Murphy JM, Hassell D, Boorman P, McDonald R, Hill S (2002) Climate change scenarios for the United Kingdom: the UKCIP02 scientific report. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

IPCC (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios (SRES): a special report of Working Group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001: the scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

Jacob D, Barring L, Christensen OB, Christensen JH, de Castro M, Deque M, Giorgi F, Hagemann S, Hirschi M, Jones R, Kjellström E, Lenderink G, Rockel B, Sanchez E, Schär C, Seneviratne SI, Somot S, van Ulden A, van den Hurk B (2007) An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: design of the experiments and model performance. Clim Change 81:31–52

Jenkins G, Lowe J (2003) Handling uncertainties in the UKCIP02 scenarios of climate change. Hadley Centre technical note 44

Jones RG, Murphy JM, Hassell DC, Woodage MJ (2008) A high resolution atmospheric GCM for the generation of regional climate scenarios. Clim Dyn (in press)

Kay AL, Jones RG, Reynard NS (2006a) RCM rainfall for UK flood frequency estimation. II. Climate change results. J Hydrol 318:163–172

Kay AL, Reynard NS, Jones RG (2006b) RCM rainfall for UK flood frequency estimation. I. Method and validation. J Hydrol 318:151–162

Kay AL, Jones DA, Crooks SM, Kjeldsen TR, Fung CF (2007) An investigation of site-similarity approaches to generalisation of a rainfall–runoff model. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11:500–515

Kendon EJ, Rowell DP, Jones RG, Buonomo E (2008) Robustness of future changes in local precipitation extremes. J Climate. doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2082.1

Kilsby CG, Jones PD, Burton A, Ford AC, Fowler HJ, Harpham C, James P, Smith A, Wilby RL (2007) A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies. Environ Model Softw 22(12):1705–1719

Leander R, Buishand TA (2007) Resampling of regional climate model output for the simulation of extreme river flows. J Hydrol 332:487–496

Monteith JL (1965) Evaporation and environment. Symp Soc Exp Biol 19:205–234

Moore RJ (1985) The probability-distributed principle and runoff production at point and basin scales. Hydrolog Sci J 30:273–297

Moore RJ (2007) The PDM rainfall–runoff model. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11:483–499

Moore RJ, Bell VA, Jones DA (2005) Forecasting for flood warning. CR Geosci 337:203–217

Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Barnett DN, Jones GS, Webb MJ, Collins M, Stainforth DA (2004) Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature 430:768–772

Naden PS (1992) Analysis and use of peaks-over-threshold data in flood estimation. In: Saul AJ (ed) Floods and flood management. Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, pp 131–143

New M, Lopez A, Dessai S, Wilby R (2007) Challenges in using probabilistic climate change information for impact assessments: an example from the water sector. Philos Trans R Soc A 365:2117–2131

Oudin L, Hervieu F, Michel C, Perrin C, Andreassian V, Anctil F, Loumagne C (2005) Which potential evapotranspiration input for a lumped rainfall–runoff model? Part 2—Towards a simple and efficient potential evapotranspiration model for rainfall–runoff modelling. J Hydrol 303:290–306

Pilgrim DH, Cordery I, French R (1969) Temporal patterns of design rainfall for Sydney. Civ Eng Trans Inst Eng Aust CE11:9–14

Prudhomme C, Davies HN (2008) Assessing uncertainties in climate change impact analyses on river flow regimes in the UK. Part 2: future climate. Clim Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-008-9461-6

Prudhomme C, Reynard N, Crooks S (2002) Downscaling from global climate models for flood frequency analysis: where are we now? Hydrol Process 16:1137–1150

Reynard NS, Crooks SM, Kay AL (2004) Impact of climate change on flood flows in river catchments. Report to the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and the Environment Agency, Project SC010011 technical report, CEH Wallingford, March 2004, 97 pp

Rowell DP (2006) A demonstration of the uncertainty in projections of UK climate change resulting from regional model formulation. Clim Change 79:243–257

Ruosteenoja K, Carter TR, Jylhä K, Tuomenvirta H (2003) Future climate in world regions: an intercomparison of model-based projections for the new IPCC emissions scenarios. The Finnish Environment 644, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki

Shao J, Tu D (1995) The jackknife and bootstrap. Springer, New York

Stainforth DA, Aina T, Christensen C, Collins M, Faull N, Frame DJ, Kettleborough JA, Knight S, Murphy JM, Piani C, Sexton D, Smith LA, Spicer RA, Thorpe AJ, Allen MR (2005) Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature 433:403–406

Thodsen H (2007) The influence of climate change on stream flow in Danish rivers. J Hydrol 333:226–238

Thompson N, Barrie IA, Ayles M (1982) The Meteorological Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System: MORECS (July 1981). Hydrological Memorandum No. 45, Met Office, Bracknell

Wilby RL (2005) Uncertainty in water resource model parameters used for climate change impact assessment. Hydrol Process 19(16):3201–3219

Wilby RL (2006) When and where might climate change be detectable in UK river flows? Geophys Res Lett 33:L19407. doi: 10.1029/2006GL027552

Wilby RL, Harris I (2006) A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: low-flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK. Water Resour Res 42:W02419. doi: 10.1029/2005WR004065

Wilby RL, Whitehead PG, Wade AJ, Butterfield D, Davis RJ, Watts G (2006) Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK. J Hydrol 330:204–220