Comparison of models for leaf blotch disease management in wheat based on historical yield and weather data in the Nordic-Baltic region
Tóm tắt
Validation of models for plant disease management is a crucial part in the development of decision support systems in plant protection. Bespoke field trials are usually conducted to determine the performance of a model under practical conditions. However, field trials are very resource-demanding, and the use of already existing field trial data could significantly reduce costs for model validation. In this study, we took this novel approach to verify the performance of models for determining the need of fungicide applications against leaf blotch diseases in wheat by utilising historical weather data and yield data available from fungicide efficacy field trials. Two models based on humidity factors were used in the study. To estimate how specific humidity settings in the two models affect the number of recommended fungicide treatments per season, historical weather data from a 5-year period from weather stations in Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Lithuania was used. The model output shows major differences between seasons and regions, typically recommending between one and three treatments per season. To determine the prediction potential of the models, data on yield gains from either one or two fungicide applications in fungicide efficacy trials conducted in wheat over a 5-year period in the five countries was utilised. The yield responses from fungicide treatments in the efficacy trials varied considerably between years and countries, as did the proportion of predictions of profitable treatments. In general, there was a tendency for the models to overestimate the need to apply fungicides (low specificity), but they rarely failed to recommend an application that was needed (high sensitivity). Despite the importance of having specific trials across regions in order to adjust models to local cropping and weather conditions, our study shows that historical weather data and existing field trial data have the potential to be used in model validation.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Bligaard J, Jørgensen LN, Axelsen J, Hansen JG, Ørum JE, Baby S, Nielsen GC (2017) Udvikling af nye risikomodeller for Septoria (Zymoseptoria tritici) i vinterhvede. Miljø- og Fødevareministeriet, Miljøstyrelsen. Bekæmpelsesmiddelforskning nr. 168. ISBN: 978-87-93529-68-7
Bhathal JS, Loughman R, Speijers J (2003) Yield reduction in wheat in relation to leaf disease from yellow (tan) spot and septoria nodorum blotch. Eur J Plant Pathol 109:435–443
Burke JJ, Dunne B (2008) Field testing of six decision support systems for scheduling fungicide applications to control Mycosphaerella graminicola on winter wheat crops in Ireland. J Agric Sci 146:415–428. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859607007642
Cook RJ, Thomas MR (1990) Influence of site factors in responses of winter wheat to fungicide programmes in England and Wales, 1979-1987. Plant Pathol 39:548–557
Coakley SM, McDaniel LR, Shaner G (1985) Model for predicting severity of septoria tritici blotch on winter wheat. Phytopathology 75:1245–1251
Djurle A, Ekbom B, Yuen JE (1996) The relationship of leaf wetness and disease progress of glume blotch, caused by Stagonospora nodorum, in winter wheat to standard weather data. Eur J Plant Pathol 102:9–20
Djurle A, Twengström E, Andersson B (2018) Fungicide treatments in winter wheat: the probability of profitability. Crop Prot 106:182–189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cropro.2017.12.018
Fones H, Gurr S (2015) The impact of septoria tritici blotch disease on wheat: an EU perspective. Fungal Genet Biol 79:3–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fgb.2015.04.004
Hansen JG, Secher BJ, Jørgensen LN, Welling B (1994) Threshold for control of Septoria spp. in winter wheat based on precipitation and growth stage. Plant Pathol (43):183–189
Hardwick NV, Jones DR, Slough JE (2001) Factors affecting diseases of winter wheat in England and Wales, 1989-98. Plant Pathol 50:453–462. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-3059.2001.00596.x
Henriksen KE, Jørgensen LN, Nielsen GC (2000) PC-Plant Protection – a tool to reduce fungicide input in winter wheat, winter barley and spring barley in Denmark. Brighton Crop Protection Conference. Pest Diseases:835–840
Jalli M, Kaseva J, Andersson B, Ficke A, Jørgensen LN, Ronis A, Kaukoranta T, Ørum JE, Djurle A (2020) Yield increases due to fungicide control of leaf blotch diseases in wheat and barley as a basis for IPM decision-making in the Nordic-Baltic region. Eur J Plant Pathol 158:315–333. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10658-020-02075-w
Justesen AF, Corsi B, Ficke A, Hartl L, Holdgate S, Jørgensen LN, Lillemo M, Lin M, Mackay IA, Mohler V, Stadlmeier B, Tan K, Turner J, Oliver RP, Cockram J (2021) Hidden in plain sight: a molecular field survey of three wheat leaf blotch fungal diseases in North-Western Europe shows co-infection is widespread. Eur J Plant Pathol 160(2021):949–962. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10658-021-02298-5
Jørgensen LN, Secher BJM, Hossy H (1999) Decision support systems featuring septoria management. In: Septoria on Cereals: A Study of Pathosystems. CABI Publishing. pp 251-262.
Jørgensen LN, Hagelskjær L (2003) Comparative field trials of various decision support systems for cereal disease control. Proceedings of the Crop Protection Conference for the Baltic Sea Region, 28-29 April 2003, Poznan. DIAS report Plant Production (96):114–122
Jørgensen LN, Hovmøller MS, Hansen JG, Lassen P, Clark B, Bayles R, Rodemann B, Jahn M, Flath K, Goral T, Czembor J, Cheyron P, Maumene C, Pope C, Nielsen GC, Berg G (2014) IPM strategies and their dilemmas including an introduction to www.Eurowheat.org. J Integr Agric (13):265–281
Jørgensen LN, Hansen JG, Ørum JE, Jalli M, Ronis A, Djurle A,; Anderson B, Skog TE, Ficke A, Nordskog B (2018) Weather risk models for prediction of septoria tritici blotch. Zymoseptoria tritici community meeting, Sept. 6-7, 2018. Zurich, Switzerland (Poster).
Jørgensen LN, Matzen M, Nielsen GC, Jalli M, Ronis A, Djurle A, Anderson B, Ficke A, Djurle A (2020) Validation of risk models for control of leaf blotch diseases in wheat in the Nordic and Baltic countries. Eur J Plant Pathol 157:599–613
Lucas JA, Hawkins NJ, Fraaije BA (2015) The evolution of fungicide resistance. Adv Appl Microbiol 90:29–92. https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.aambs.2014.09.001
Mehra LK, Adhikari U, Ojiambo PS, Cowger C (2019) Septoria nodorum blotch of wheat. The Plant Health Instructor. https://doi.org/10.1094/PHI-I-2019-0514-01
Madden LV (2006) Botanical epidemiology: some key advances and its continuing role in disease management. Eur J Plant Pathol 115:3–23
Paveley ND, Lockley D, Sylvester-Bradley R, Thomas J (1997) Determinants of fungicide spray decisions for wheat. Pestic Sci 49:379–388
Rowlandson T, Gleason M, Sentelhas P, Gilespie T, Thomas C, Hornbuckle B (2015) Reconsidering leaf wetness duration determination for plant disease management. Plant Dis 99:310–319
Shaw MW (1990) Effects of temperature, leaf wetness and cultivar on the latent period of Mycosphaerella graminicola on winter wheat. Plant Pathol 39:255–268
Shaw MW, Royle DJ (1993) Factors determining the severity of epidemics of Mycosphaerella graminicola (Septoria tritici) on winter wheat in the UK. Plant Pathol 42(1993):882–899
Te Beest DE, Shaw MW, Pietravalle S, Van den Bosch F (2009) A predictive model for early –warning of septoria leaf blotch on winter wheat. Eur J Plant Pathol (124):413–425. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10658-009-9428-0
Te Beest DE, Paveley ND, Shaw MW, van den Bosch F (2013) Accounting for the economic risk caused by variation in disease severity in fungicide dose decisions, exemplified for Mycosphaerella graminicola on winter wheat. Phytopathology 103:666–672. https://doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-05-12-0119-R
Thomas MR, Cook RJ, King JE (1989) Factors affecting development of Septoria tritici in winter wheat and its effect on yield. Plant Pathol 38:246–257
Torriani SFF, Melichar JPE, Mills C, Pain N, Sierotzki H, Courbot M (2015) Zymoseptoria tritici: a major threat to wheat production, integrated approaches to control. Fungal Genet Biol 79:8–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fgb.2015.04.010
Tyldesley JB, Thompson N (1980) Forecasting Septoria nodorum on winter wheat in England and Wales. Plant Pathol 29:9–20
Wegulo SN, Zwingman MV, Breathnach JA, Baenziger PS (2011) Economic returns from fungicide application to control foliar fungal diseases in winter wheat. Crop Prot (30):685–692. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cropro.2011.02.002
Verreet JA, Klink H, Hoffmann GM (2000) Regional monitoring for disease prediction and optimization of plant protection measures: the IPM wheat model. Plant Dis 84:816–826. https://doi.org/10.1094/PDIS.2000.84.8.816
Wiik L (2009) Yield and disease control in winter wheat in southern Sweden during 1977–2005. Crop Prot 28:82–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cropro.2008.09.002
Wiik L, Ewaldz T (2009) Impact on temperature and precipitation on yield and plant diseases of winter wheat in southern Sweden 1993-2007. Crop Prot 28:82–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cropro.2009.05.002
Wiik L, Rosenqvist H (2010) The economics of fungicide use in winter wheat in southern Sweden. Crop Prot 29:11–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cropro.2009.09.008
Willocquet L, Meza WR, Dumont B, Klocke B, Feike T, Kersebaum KC, Meriggi P, Rossi V, Ficke A, Djurle A, Savary S (2021) An outlook on wheat health in Europe from a network of field experiments. Crop Prot 139:105335. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cropro.2020.105335
Yuen J, Twengström E, Sigvald R (1996) Calibration and verification of risk algorithms using logistic regression. Eur J Plant Pathol 102:847–854
Zadoks JC, Chang TT, Konzak CF (1974) A decimal code for the growth stages of cereals. Weed Res 14:415–421
Zadoks JC (1985) On the conceptual basis of crop loss assessment – the threshold theory. Annu Rev Phytopathol 23:455–473