Climate–ecosystem change off southern California: Time-dependent seabird predator–prey numerical responses

Abraham, 2004, Ocean climate, euphausiids and auklet nesting: inter-annual trends and variation in phenology, diet and growth of a planktivorous seabird, Ptychoramphus aleuticus., Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 274, 235, 10.3354/meps274235 Aebischer, 1990, Parallel long-term trends across four marine trophic levels and weather, Nature, 347, 753, 10.1038/347753a0 Ainley, 2009, Association of predators and prey at frontal features in the California Current: competition, facilitation, and co-occurrence, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 389, 271, 10.3354/meps08153 Ainley, 2010, Top-down and bottom-up factors affecting seabird population trends in the California Current System (1985–2006), Prog. Oceanogr., 84, 242, 10.1016/j.pocean.2009.10.001 Aksnes, 2009, Multi-decadal shoaling of the euphotic zone in the southern sector of the California Current System, Limnol. Oceanogr., 54, 1272, 10.4319/lo.2009.54.4.1272 Auad, 2006, Long-term forecast of oceanic conditions off California and their biological implications, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 111, C9, 10.1029/2005JC003219 Bakun, 1990, Global climate change and intensification of coastal ocean upwelling, Science, 247, 198, 10.1126/science.247.4939.198 Belkin, 2009, Rapid warming of large marine ecosystems, Prog. Oceanogr., 81, 207, 10.1016/j.pocean.2009.04.011 Bjorkstedt, 2011, State of the California Current 2010–2011: regional variable responses to a strong (but fleeting?) La Nina., CalCOFI Report, 52, 36 Black, 2011, Winter and summer upwelling modes and their relevance to climate impacts and ecological response in the California Current ecosystem, Glob. Change Biol., 17, 2536, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02422.x Bograd, 2003, Long-term variability in the southern California Current System, Deep-Sea Res. II, 50, 2355, 10.1016/S0967-0645(03)00131-0 Bond, 2003, Recent shifts in the state of the North Pacific, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2183, 10.1029/2003GL018597 Briggs, 1987, Trophic relationships and food requirements of California seabirds: updating models of trophic impact, 279 Brinton, 1962, The distribution of Pacific euphausiids, Bull. Scripps Inst. Oceanogr., 8, 51 Brinton, 2003, Decadal variability in abundances of the dominant euphausiid species in southern sectors of the California Current, Deep-Sea Res. II, 50, 2449, 10.1016/S0967-0645(03)00126-7 Brodeur, 2006, Anomalous pelagic nekton abundance, distribution, and apparent recruitment in the northern California Current in 2004 and 2005, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, 10.1029/2006GL026614 Burrows, 2011, The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems, Science, 334, 652, 10.1126/science.1210288 Chavez, 2009, A comparison of Eastern boundary upwelling ecosystems, Prog. Oceanogr., 83, 80, 10.1016/j.pocean.2009.07.032 Checkley, 2009, Patterns and processes in the California Current System, Prog. Oceanogr., 83, 49, 10.1016/j.pocean.2009.07.028 Cury, 1989, Optimal environmental window and pelagic fish recruitment success in upwelling areas, Can. J. Fish Aquat. Sci., 46, 670, 10.1139/f89-086 Cury, 2011, Global seabird response to forage fish depletion—one-third for the birds, Science, 334, 1703, 10.1126/science.1212928 deYoung, 2008, Regime shifts in marine ecosystems: detection, prediction and management, Trends Ecol. Evol., 23, 402, 10.1016/j.tree.2008.03.008 Di Lorenzo, 2005, The warming of the California Current System: dynamics and ecosystem implications, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 35, 336, 10.1175/JPO-2690.1 Di Lorenzo, 2013, A double-integration hypothesis to explain ocean ecosystem response to climate forcing, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA, 10.1073/pnas.1218022110 Fauchald, 2011, Scale-dependent response diversity of seabirds to prey in the North Sea, Ecology, 92, 228, 10.1890/10-0818.1 Frank, 2005, Trophic cascades in a formerly cod-dominated ecosystem, Science, 308, 1621, 10.1126/science.1113075 Frederiksen, 2006, From plankton to top predators: bottom-up control of a marine food web across four trophic levels, J. Anim. Ecol., 75, 1259, 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2006.01148.x García-Reyes, 2010, Observations of increased wind-driven coastal upwelling off central California, J. Geophys. Res., 115, C04011, 10.1029/2009JC005576 García-Reyes, M., Sydeman, W.J., Thompson, S.A., Black, B.A., Rykaczewski, R.R., Thayer, J.A., Bograd, S.J., 2013. Integrated assessment of wind effects on Central California׳s pelagic ecosystem. Ecosystems. 10.1007/s10021-013-9643-6. Hayward, 1998, Nearsurface pattern in the California Current: coupling between physical and biological structure, Deep-Sea Res. II, 45, 1617, 10.1016/S0967-0645(98)80010-6 Hooff, 2006, Copepod biodiversity as an indicator of changes in ocean and climate conditions of the northern California Current Ecosystem, Limnol. Oceanogr., 51, 2607, 10.4319/lo.2006.51.6.2607 Hsieh, 2005, A comparison of long-term trends and variability in populations of larvae of exploited and unexploited fishes in the Southern California region: a community approach, Prog. Oceanogr., 67, 160, 10.1016/j.pocean.2005.05.002 Hsieh, 2009, Climate-driven changes in abundance and distribution of larvae of oceanic fishes in the southern California region, Glob. Change Biol., 15, 2137, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01875.x Hunsicker, 2011, Functional responses and scaling in predator–prey interactions of marine fishes: contemporary issues and emerging concepts, Ecol. Lett., 14, 1288, 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01696.x Hyrenbach, 2003, Ocean warming and seabird communities of the Southern California Current System (1987–98): response at multiple temporal scales, Deep-Sea Res. II, 50, 2537, 10.1016/S0967-0645(03)00123-1 Ito, 2009, Seasonal and inter-annual oceanographic changes induce diet switching in a piscivorous seabird, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 373, 273, 10.3354/meps08192 Kahru, 2012, Trends in the surface chlorophyll of the California Current: Merging data from multiple ocean color satellites, Deep-Sea Res. II, 77-80, 89, 10.1016/j.dsr2.2012.04.007 Koslow, 2011, Impact of declining intermediate-water oxygen on deepwater fishes in the California Current, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 436, 207, 10.3354/meps09270 Koslow, J.A., Goericke, R., Watson, W., 2013. Fish assemblages in the Southern California Current: relationships with climate, 1951–2008. Fish. Oceanogr. 10.1111/fog.12018. Lavaniegos, 2007, Coherence of long-term variations of zooplankton in two sectors of the California Current System, Prog. Oceanogr., 75, 42, 10.1016/j.pocean.2007.07.002 Levitus, 2009, Global ocean heat content 1955–2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07608, 10.1029/2008GL037155 MacCall, 2009, Mechanisms of low frequency fluctuations in sardine and anchovy populations, 285 Manly, 2007, 455 McGowan, 2003, The biological response to the 1977 regime shift in the California Current, Deep-Sea Res. II, 50, 2567, 10.1016/S0967-0645(03)00135-8 Miller, 2004, Rockfish response to low-frequency ocean climate change as revealed by the diet of a marine bird over multiple time scales, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 281, 207, 10.3354/meps281207 Mills, 2007, Diets of top predators indicate pelagic juvenile rockfish (Sebastes spp.) abundance in the California Current System, Fish. Oceanogr., 16, 273, 10.1111/j.1365-2419.2007.00429.x Narayan, 2010, Trends in coastal upwelling intensity during the late 20th century, Ocean Sci., 6, 815, 10.5194/os-6-815-2010 Ohman, 2013, Ecological transitions in a coastal upwelling ecosystem, Oceanography, 26, 210, 10.5670/oceanog.2013.65 Palacios, 2004, Long-term and seasonal trends in stratification in the California Current, 1950–1993, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 109, C10016, 10.1029/2004JC002380 Peña, 2007, Time series of the northeast Pacific, Prog. Oceanogr., 75, 115, 10.1016/j.pocean.2007.08.008 Peterson, 2003, A new climate regime in Northeast Pacific ecosystems, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1896, 10.1029/2003GL017528 Robinette, 2007, Spatial patterns of recruitment in a demersal fish as revealed by seabird diet, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 352, 259, 10.3354/meps07079 Roemmich, 1995, Climatic warming and the decline of zooplankton in the California Current, Science, 267, 1324, 10.1126/science.267.5202.1324 Rykaczewski, 2010, Enhanced nutrient supply to the California Current Ecosystem with global warming and increased stratification in an earth system model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L21606, 10.1029/2010GL045019 Santora, 2011, Mesoscale structure and oceanographic determinants of krill hotspots in the California Current: implications for trophic transfer and conservation, Prog. Oceanogr., 91, 397, 10.1016/j.pocean.2011.04.002 Santora, 2011, Spatial organization of krill and seabirds in the central California Current, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 68, 1391, 10.1093/icesjms/fsr046 Santora, 2012, Krill space: a comparative assessment of mesoscale structuring in polar and temperate marine ecosystems, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 69, 1317, 10.1093/icesjms/fss048 Sarmiento, 2004, Response of ocean ecosystems to climate warming, Glob. Biogeochem. Cycle., 18, GB3003, 10.1029/2003GB002134 Shaffer, 2006, Migratory shearwaters integrate oceanic resources across the Pacific Ocean in an endless summer, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA, 103, 12799, 10.1073/pnas.0603715103 Sih, 2001, Optimal diet theory: when does it work, and when and why does it fail?, Anim. Behav., 61, 379, 10.1006/anbe.2000.1592 Smith, 2011, Impacts of fishing low-trophic level species on marine ecosystems, Science, 333, 1147, 10.1126/science.1209395 Solomon, 2007, Climate change 2007: the physical science basis Sydeman, 1999, Pinniped population dynamics in central California: correlations with sea surface temperature and upwelling indices, Mar. Mamm. Sci., 15, 446, 10.1111/j.1748-7692.1999.tb00812.x Sydeman, 1997, Trophic relationships among seabirds in central California: combined stable isotope and conventional dietary approach, Condor, 99, 327, 10.2307/1369938 Sydeman, 2001, Climate change, reproductive performance and diet composition of marine birds in the southern California Current System, 1967–1997, Prog. Oceanogr., 49, 309, 10.1016/S0079-6611(01)00028-3 Sydeman, 2006, Planktivorous auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus responses to ocean climate, 2005: Unusual atmospheric blocking?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L22S09, 10.1029/2006GL026736 Sydeman, 2009, Seabirds and climate in the California Current—a synthesis of change, CalCOFI Report, 50, 82 Sydeman, 2012, Seabirds and climate change: roadmap for the future, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 454, 107, 10.3354/meps09806 Sydeman, W.J., Santora, J.A., Thompson, S.A., Marinovic, B., Di Lorenzo, E., 2013. Increasing variance in North Pacific climate relates to unprecedented ecosystem variability off California. Glob. Change Biol., 10.1111/gcb.12165. Thayer, 2007, Spatio-temporal variability in prey harvest and reproductive ecology of a piscivorous seabird, Cerorhinca monocerata, in an upwelling system, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 329, 253, 10.3354/meps329253 Thompson, 2012, Linking predators to seasonality of upwelling: using food web indicators and path analysis to infer trophic connections, Prog. Oceanogr., 101, 106, 10.1016/j.pocean.2012.02.001 Veit, 1996, Ocean warming and long-term change in pelagic bird abundance within the California Current System, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 139, 11, 10.3354/meps139011 Veit, 1997, Apex marine predator declines ninety percent in association with changing oceanic climate, Glob. Change Biol., 3, 23, 10.1046/j.1365-2486.1997.d01-130.x Venrick, 2012, Phytoplankton in the California Current System off southern California: changes in a changing environment, Prog. Oceanogr., 104, 46, 10.1016/j.pocean.2012.05.005 Watanuki, 2009, Climate-forced seasonal mismatch between the hatching of rhinoceros auklets and the availability of anchovy, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 393, 259, 10.3354/meps08264 Yen, 2006, Spring-time distributions of migratory marine birds in the southern California Current: oceanic eddy associations and coastal habitat hotspots over 17 years, Deep-Sea Res. II, 53, 399, 10.1016/j.dsr2.2006.01.013