Climate change projections in Russian regions: The detailing in physical and probability spaces

Vladimir Kattsov1, I. M. Shkolnik1, S. Efimov1
1Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, St. Petersburg, Russia

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

V. M. Kattsov, “Climate Services in the Russian Federation: The Past, the Present, and the Future,” in Proceedings of VII All-Russian Meteorological Congress (D’ART, St. Petersburg, 2015) [in Russian]

V. M. Kattsov and V. P. Meleshko, “Evaluation of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models Used for Projecting Future Climate Change,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Fiz. Atmos. Okeana, No. 6, 40 (2004) [Izv., Atmos. Oceanic Phys., No. 6, 40 (2004)].

V. M. Kattsov, I. M. Shkolnik, S. V. Efimov, et al., “The Development of Technology for Probabihstic Projecting of Regional Climate in Russia and the Construction of Scenario Forecasts of Changes in Climate Impacts on Economic Sectors. Part 1: Problem Statement and Numerical Experiments,” Trudy GGO, No. 583 (2016) [in Russian].

V. P. Meleshko, V. A. Matyugin, P. V. Sporyshev, et al., “The MGO General Atmospheric Circulation Model (Version MGO-03 T63L25),” Trudy GGO, No. 571 (2014) [in Russian].

Projection of Macroeconomic Consequences of Climate Change in the Russian Federation for the Period till 2030 and for the More Distant Future, Ed. by V. M. Kattsov and B. N. Porfir'ev (D'ART, St. Petersburg, 2011) [in Russian].

I. M. Shkolnik and S. V. Efimov, “New-generation Regional Climate Model for Northern Eurasia,” Trudy GGO, No. 576 (2015) [in Russian].

I. M. Shkolnik, V. P. Meleshko, S. V. Efimov, and E. N. Stafeeva, “Changes in Climate Extremes on the Territory of Siberia by the Middle of the 21st Century: An Ensemble Forecast Based on the MGO Regional Climate Model,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 2 (2012) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 2, 37 (2012)].

I. M. Shkolnik, V. P. Meleshko, I. L. Karol, et al., “Expected Climate Changes in the Russian Federation in the 21st Century,” in Second Roshydromet Assessment Report on Climate Change and Its Consequences in the Russian Federation (Roshydromet, Moscow, 2014) [in Russian], http://downloads.igce.ru/publications/OD_2_ 2014/v2014/htm/1.htm.

M. Collins, R. Knutti, J. Arblaster, et al., “Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility,” in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Phanel on Climate Change, Ed. by T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, et al. (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA, 2013).

E. J. Kendon, D. P. Rowell, R. G. Jones, and E. Buonomo, “Robustness of Future Changes in Local Precipitation Extremes,” J. Climate, 21 (2008).

V. Kharin, F. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and M. Wehner, “Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the CMIP5 Ensemble,” Climatic Change, 119 (2013).

F. Kucharski, A. A. Scaife, J. H. Yoo, et al., “The CLIVAR C20C Project: Skill of Simulating Indian Monsoon Rainfall on Interannual to Decadal Timescales. Does GHG Forcing Play a Role?", Clim. Dyn., No. 5, 33 (2009).

M. Rummukainen, B. Rockel, L. Barring, et al., “Twenty-first-century Challenges in Regional Climate Modeling,” Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., No. 8, 96 (2015).

A. A. Scaife, F. Kucharski, C. K. Folland, et al., “The CLIVAR C20C Proj ect: Selected Twentieth Century Climate Events,” Climate Dynamics, No. 5, 33 (2009).

I. Shkolnik, T. Pavlova, S. Efimov, et al., “Future Changes in Peak River Flows across Northern Eurasia as Inferred from an Ensemble of Regional Climate Projections under the IPCC RCP8.5 Scenario,” Climate Dynamics (2017).

J. Sillmann, V. Kharin, F. Zwiers, et al., “Climate Extremes Indices in the CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble: Part 2. Future Climate Projections,” J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118 (2013).

“Summary for Policymakers,” in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Ed. by T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, et al. (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA, 2013).

K. E. Taylor, R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, “An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design,” Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 93 (2012).

D. P. van Vuuren, J. A. Edmonds, M. Kainuma, et al., “The Representative Concentration Pathways: An Overview,” Climatic Change, 109 (2011).

T. Zhou, B. Wu, A. A. Scaife, et al., “The CLIVAR C20C Project: Which Components of the Asian-Australian Monsoon Circulation Variations are Forced and Reproducible,” Climate Dynamics, No. 7-8, 33 (2009).