Climate change impacts on crop yield, crop water productivity and food security – A review

Progress in Natural Science: Materials International - Tập 19 Số 12 - Trang 1665-1674 - 2009
Yinhong Kang1, Shahbaz Khan2, Xiaoyi Ma1
1Department of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
2Division of Water Sciences, UNESCO, 1 Rue Miollis, 75 732 Paris Cedex 15, SP, France

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Lal, 2005, Climate change, soil carbon dynamics, and global food security, 113

Magadza, 2000, Climate change impacts and human settlements in Africa: prospects for adaptation, Environ Monit Assess, 61, 193, 10.1023/A:1006355210516

Howden, 1997, Evaluating options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from an Australian temperate wheat cropping system, Environ Modell Software, 12, 169, 10.1016/S1364-8152(97)00007-8

Hoogenboom, 2000, Contribution of agrometeorology to the simulation of crop production and its applications, Agric Forest Meteorol, 103, 137, 10.1016/S0168-1923(00)00108-8

Gbetibouo, 2005, Economic impact of climate change on major South African field crops: A Ricardian approach, Glob Planet Change, 47, 143, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.10.009

Aggarwal, 2006, InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. I. Model description, Agric Syst, 89, 1, 10.1016/j.agsy.2005.08.001

Aggarwal, 2006, InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments II. Performance of the model, Agric Syst, 89, 47, 10.1016/j.agsy.2005.08.003

Dhungana, 2006, Designing crop technology for a future climate: an example using response surface methodology and the CERES-Wheat model, Agric Syst, 87, 63, 10.1016/j.agsy.2004.11.004

Challinor, 2008, Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: processes and uncertainties, Agric Forest Meteorol, 148, 343, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.09.015

Chang, 2002, Water resource impacts of climate change in southwestern Bulgaria, Geol J, 57, 159

Wilby, 2005, Uncertainty in water resource model parameters used for climate change impact assessment, Hydrol Process, 19, 3201, 10.1002/hyp.5819

Wilby, 2006, Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK, J Hydrol, 330, 204, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.04.033

Herrera-Pantoja, 2008, The effects of climate change on potential groundwater recharge in Great Britain, Hydrol Process, 22, 73, 10.1002/hyp.6620

Lexer, 2002, The sensitivity of Austrian forests to scenarios of climatic change: a large-scale risk assessment based on a modified gap model and forest inventory data, For Ecol Manage, 162, 53, 10.1016/S0378-1127(02)00050-6

Harle, 2007, The potential impact of climate change on the Australian wool industry by 2030, Agric Syst, 93, 61, 10.1016/j.agsy.2006.04.003

Dockerty, 2005, Visualising the potential impacts of climate change on rural landscapes, Comput Environ Urban Syst, 29, 297, 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2004.05.004

Dockerty, 2006, Developing scenarios and visualisations to illustrate potential policy and climatic influences on future agricultural landscapes, Agric Ecosyst Environ, 114, 103, 10.1016/j.agee.2005.11.008

Reddy, 2000, Predicting crop yields under climate change conditions from monthly GCM weather projections, Environ Modell Software, 15, 79, 10.1016/S1364-8152(99)00011-0

Fujihara, 2008, Assessing the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Seyhan River Basin in Turkey: use of dynamically downscaled data for hydrologic simulations, J Hydrol, 353, 33, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.01.024

IPCC. Appendix I: glossary. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, et al., editors. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2007. p. 79–131.

Mearns, 2000, Climate change and variability, 7

Suppiah, 2007, Australian climate change projections derived from simulations performed for the IPCC 4th assessment report, Aust Meteorol Mag, 56, 131

IPCC. Summary for policymakers. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al., editors. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2007. p. 1–18.

Blenkinsop, 2007, Changes in European drought characteristics projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models, Int J Climatol, 27, 1595, 10.1002/joc.1538

Metzger, 2005, A multidisciplinary multi-scale framework for assessing vulnerabilities to global change, Int J Appl Earth Observ Geoinform, 7, 253, 10.1016/j.jag.2005.06.011

Khan, 2008, Managing climate risks in Australia: options for water policy and irrigation management, Aust J Exp Agric, 48, 265, 10.1071/EA06090

Groves, 2007, A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios, Global Environ Change, 17, 73, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.11.006

Fowler, 2005, A weather-type conditioned multi-site stochastic rainfall model for the generation of scenarios of climatic variability and change, J Hydrol, 308, 50, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.10.021

Xu, 2006, Analyses on the climate change responses over China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS, Chin Sci Bull, 51, 2260, 10.1007/s11434-006-2099-8

Thomas, 2008, Agricultural irrigation demand under present and future climate scenarios in China, Glob Planet Change, 60, 306, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.03.009

Bonan, 2002, The land surface climatology of the community land model coupled to the NCAR community climate model, J Clim, 15, 3123, 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3123:TLSCOT>2.0.CO;2

Salinger, 2000, Agrometeorological adaptation strategies to increasing climate variability and climate change, Agric Forest Meteorol, 103, 167, 10.1016/S0168-1923(00)00110-6

Cuculeanu, 2002, Climate change impacts in Romania: vulnerability and adaptation options, Geol J, 57, 203

ACE (Atmosphere, Climate and Environment). Climate change fact sheet series for key stage 4 and A-level, Buchdahl; 2002. p. 1–171.

Aerts, 2004

Dracup JA, Vicuna S. An overview of hydrology and water resources studies on climate change: the California experience. Copyright ASCE 2005; 1–12.

Guo, 2002, A macro-scale and semi-distributed monthly water balance model to predict climate change impacts in China, J Hydrol, 268, 1, 10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00075-6

Ma, 2008, Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in arid region of northwest China, J Hydrol, 352, 239, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.12.022

Wurbs, 2005, Incorporation of climate change in water availability modeling, J Hydrol Eng, 5, 375, 10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2005)10:5(375)

Quinn, 2001, An integrated modeling system for environmental impact analysis of climate variability and extreme weather events in the San Joaquin Basin, California, Adv Environ Res, 5, 309, 10.1016/S1093-0191(01)00081-8

Qin, 2008, A MCDM-based expert system for climate-change impact assessment and adaptation planning – a case study for the Georgia Basin, Canada, Expert Syst Appl, 34, 2164, 10.1016/j.eswa.2007.02.024

Alcamoa, 2007, A new assessment of climate change impacts on food production shortfalls and water availability in Russia, Global Environ Change, 17, 429, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.12.006

Mirza, 2007, Climate change, adaptation and adaptive governance in water sector in South Asia, Phys Sci Basis, 1

Hobbs, 1997, Bayesian methods for analysing climate change and water resource uncertainties, J Environ Manage, 49, 53, 10.1006/jema.1996.0116

Westmacott, 1997, Climate change effects on the hydrologic regime within the Churchill–Nelson River Basin, J Hydrol, 202, 263, 10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00073-5

Stone, 2005, Climate change impacts on Missouri River Basin water yields: the influence of temporal scales, ASCE, 1

Abraha, 2006, Potential impacts of climate change on the grain yield of maize for the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, Agric Ecosyst Environ, 115, 150, 10.1016/j.agee.2005.12.020

Ortiz, 2008, Climate change: can wheat beat the heat?, Agric Ecosyst Environ, 126, 46, 10.1016/j.agee.2008.01.019

Anwar, 2007, Climate change impact on rainfed wheat in south-eastern Australia, Field Crops Res, 104, 139, 10.1016/j.fcr.2007.03.020

Eitzinger, 2003, A simulation study of the effect of soil water balance and water stress on winter wheat production under different climate change scenarios, Agric Water Manage, 61, 195, 10.1016/S0378-3774(03)00024-6

Luo, 2003, Quantitative and visual assessments of climate change impacts on South Australian wheat production, Agric Syst, 77, 173, 10.1016/S0308-521X(02)00109-9

Conde, 2006, Climate change and climate variability impacts on rainfed agricultural activities and possible adaptation measures: a Mexican case study, Atmosfera, 19, 181

Walker, 2006, An assessment of sustainable maize production under different management and climate scenarios for smallholder agro-ecosystems in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, Phys Chem Earth, 31, 995, 10.1016/j.pce.2006.08.012

Tojo Soler, 2007, Application of the CSM-CERES-Maize model for planting date evaluation and yield forecasting for maize grown off-season in a subtropical environment, Eur J Agron, 27, 165, 10.1016/j.eja.2007.03.002

Popova, 2005, CERES model application for increasing preparedness to climate variability in agricultural planning-risk analyses, Phys Chem Earth, 30, 117, 10.1016/j.pce.2004.08.025

Akpalu W, Hassan RM, Ringler C. Climate variability and maize yield in South Africa: results from GME and MELE methods. Environment and production technology division IFPRI discussion paper; 2008. p. 1–12.

Eastering, 1998, Spatial scale of climate information for simulating wheat and maize productivity: the case of the US Great Plains, Agric Forest Meteorol, 90, 51, 10.1016/S0168-1923(97)00091-9

Droogers, 2004, Adaptation strategies to climate change to sustain food security, 49

Krishnan, 2007, Impact of elevated CO2 and temperature on rice yield and methods of adaptation as evaluated by crop simulation studies, Agric Ecosyst Environ, 122, 233, 10.1016/j.agee.2007.01.019

Yao, 2007, Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China, Clim Change, 80, 395, 10.1007/s10584-006-9122-6

Parry, 1999, Climate change and world food security: a new assessment, Global Environ Change, 9, S51, 10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00018-7

Challinor, 2007, Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures, Agric Ecosyst Environ, 119, 190, 10.1016/j.agee.2006.07.009

Xie H, Eheart JW. Assessing vulnerability of water resources to climate change in midwest. Copyright ASCE 2004; 1–10.

Bouman, 2007, A conceptual framework for the improvement of crop water productivity at different spatial scales, Agric Syst, 93, 43, 10.1016/j.agsy.2006.04.004

Kijne, 2003

Kijne, 2003, Improving water productivity in agriculture: editors’ overview, xi

Singh, 2006, Water productivity analysis of irrigated crops in Sirsa district, India, Agric Water Manage, 82, 253, 10.1016/j.agwat.2005.07.027

Zwart, 2004, Review of measured crop water productivity values for irrigated wheat, rice, cotton and maize, Agric Water Manage, 69, 115, 10.1016/j.agwat.2004.04.007

Oram, 1989, Views on the new global context for agricultural research: implications for policy, 3

Carter TR, Hulme M, Viner D. Representing uncertainty in climate change scenarios and impact studies. ECLAT-2 report no. 1. In: Proceedings of the Helsinki workshop, Norwich, UK, April 14–16; 1999. p. 130.

Eitzinger, 2001, A local simulation study on the impact of climate change on winter wheat production in northeastern Austria, Ecol Econ, 52, 199

Sirotenko, 1997, Sensitivity of Russian agriculture to changes in climate, CO2 and tropospheric ozone concentrations and soil fertility, Clim Change, 36, 217, 10.1023/A:1005320521321

Amthor, 2001, Effects of atmospheric CO2 concentration on wheat yield: review of results from experiments using various approaches to control CO2 concentration, Field Crops Res, 73, 1, 10.1016/S0378-4290(01)00179-4

van de Geijn, 1996, The effects of elevated CO2 and temperature change on transpiration and crop water use, 1

Howden M, Jones RN. Risk assessment of climate change impacts on Australia’s wheat industry. In: New directions for a diverse planet: proceedings of the 4th international crop science congress, Brisbane, Australia, Sept. 26–Oct. 1; 2004. p. 1848.

ABARE (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resources Economics). Climate change impacts on Australian agriculture. Aust Commodities 2007;14(4):657–76.

Khan, 2008, Enhancing water productivity at the irrigation system level: a geospatial hydrology application in the Yellow River Basin, J Arid Environ, 72, 1046, 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2007.11.011

Li, 2004, Increasing water productivity for paddy irrigation in China, Paddy Water Environ, 2, 187, 10.1007/s10333-004-0064-1

Govindarajan, 2008, Estimation of paddy water productivity (WP) using hydrological model: an experimental study, Paddy Water Environ, 6, 327, 10.1007/s10333-008-0131-0

Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, et al. Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al., editors. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2007. p. 749–844.

Fischer, 2007, Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements: effects of mitigation, 1990–2080, Technol Forecast Soc Change, 74, 1080, 10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.021

De Silva, 2007, Predicting the impacts of climate change – a case study of paddy irrigation water requirements in Sri Lanka, Agric Water Manage, 93, 19, 10.1016/j.agwat.2007.06.003

Holden, 2006, Adaptation of water and nitrogen management of spring barley and potato as a response to possible climate change in Ireland, Agric Water Manage, 82, 297, 10.1016/j.agwat.2005.07.026

FAO. The state of food insecurity in the world 2001. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome; 2002.

Schmidhuber, 2007, Global food security under climate change, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 19703, 10.1073/pnas.0701976104

FAO. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 summary report. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome; 2002.

Droogers, 2004, Adaptation to climate change to enhance food security and preserve environmental quality: example for southern Sri Lanka, Agric Water Manage, 66, 15, 10.1016/j.agwat.2003.09.005

Droogers, 2005, Adaptation strategies to climate change and climate variability: a comparative study between seven contrasting river basins, Phys Chem Earth, 30, 339, 10.1016/j.pce.2005.06.015

Khan, 2009, Water management and crop production for food security in China: a review, Agric Water Manage, 96, 349, 10.1016/j.agwat.2008.09.022