Climate change impacts on crop yield, crop water productivity and food security – A review
Tóm tắt
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Lal, 2005, Climate change, soil carbon dynamics, and global food security, 113
Magadza, 2000, Climate change impacts and human settlements in Africa: prospects for adaptation, Environ Monit Assess, 61, 193, 10.1023/A:1006355210516
Howden, 1997, Evaluating options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from an Australian temperate wheat cropping system, Environ Modell Software, 12, 169, 10.1016/S1364-8152(97)00007-8
Hoogenboom, 2000, Contribution of agrometeorology to the simulation of crop production and its applications, Agric Forest Meteorol, 103, 137, 10.1016/S0168-1923(00)00108-8
Gbetibouo, 2005, Economic impact of climate change on major South African field crops: A Ricardian approach, Glob Planet Change, 47, 143, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.10.009
Aggarwal, 2006, InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. I. Model description, Agric Syst, 89, 1, 10.1016/j.agsy.2005.08.001
Aggarwal, 2006, InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments II. Performance of the model, Agric Syst, 89, 47, 10.1016/j.agsy.2005.08.003
Dhungana, 2006, Designing crop technology for a future climate: an example using response surface methodology and the CERES-Wheat model, Agric Syst, 87, 63, 10.1016/j.agsy.2004.11.004
Challinor, 2008, Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: processes and uncertainties, Agric Forest Meteorol, 148, 343, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.09.015
Chang, 2002, Water resource impacts of climate change in southwestern Bulgaria, Geol J, 57, 159
Wilby, 2005, Uncertainty in water resource model parameters used for climate change impact assessment, Hydrol Process, 19, 3201, 10.1002/hyp.5819
Wilby, 2006, Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK, J Hydrol, 330, 204, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.04.033
Herrera-Pantoja, 2008, The effects of climate change on potential groundwater recharge in Great Britain, Hydrol Process, 22, 73, 10.1002/hyp.6620
Lexer, 2002, The sensitivity of Austrian forests to scenarios of climatic change: a large-scale risk assessment based on a modified gap model and forest inventory data, For Ecol Manage, 162, 53, 10.1016/S0378-1127(02)00050-6
Harle, 2007, The potential impact of climate change on the Australian wool industry by 2030, Agric Syst, 93, 61, 10.1016/j.agsy.2006.04.003
Dockerty, 2005, Visualising the potential impacts of climate change on rural landscapes, Comput Environ Urban Syst, 29, 297, 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2004.05.004
Dockerty, 2006, Developing scenarios and visualisations to illustrate potential policy and climatic influences on future agricultural landscapes, Agric Ecosyst Environ, 114, 103, 10.1016/j.agee.2005.11.008
Reddy, 2000, Predicting crop yields under climate change conditions from monthly GCM weather projections, Environ Modell Software, 15, 79, 10.1016/S1364-8152(99)00011-0
Fujihara, 2008, Assessing the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Seyhan River Basin in Turkey: use of dynamically downscaled data for hydrologic simulations, J Hydrol, 353, 33, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.01.024
IPCC. Appendix I: glossary. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, et al., editors. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2007. p. 79–131.
Mearns, 2000, Climate change and variability, 7
Suppiah, 2007, Australian climate change projections derived from simulations performed for the IPCC 4th assessment report, Aust Meteorol Mag, 56, 131
IPCC. Summary for policymakers. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al., editors. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2007. p. 1–18.
Blenkinsop, 2007, Changes in European drought characteristics projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models, Int J Climatol, 27, 1595, 10.1002/joc.1538
Metzger, 2005, A multidisciplinary multi-scale framework for assessing vulnerabilities to global change, Int J Appl Earth Observ Geoinform, 7, 253, 10.1016/j.jag.2005.06.011
Khan, 2008, Managing climate risks in Australia: options for water policy and irrigation management, Aust J Exp Agric, 48, 265, 10.1071/EA06090
Groves, 2007, A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios, Global Environ Change, 17, 73, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.11.006
Fowler, 2005, A weather-type conditioned multi-site stochastic rainfall model for the generation of scenarios of climatic variability and change, J Hydrol, 308, 50, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.10.021
Xu, 2006, Analyses on the climate change responses over China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS, Chin Sci Bull, 51, 2260, 10.1007/s11434-006-2099-8
Thomas, 2008, Agricultural irrigation demand under present and future climate scenarios in China, Glob Planet Change, 60, 306, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.03.009
Bonan, 2002, The land surface climatology of the community land model coupled to the NCAR community climate model, J Clim, 15, 3123, 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3123:TLSCOT>2.0.CO;2
Salinger, 2000, Agrometeorological adaptation strategies to increasing climate variability and climate change, Agric Forest Meteorol, 103, 167, 10.1016/S0168-1923(00)00110-6
Cuculeanu, 2002, Climate change impacts in Romania: vulnerability and adaptation options, Geol J, 57, 203
ACE (Atmosphere, Climate and Environment). Climate change fact sheet series for key stage 4 and A-level, Buchdahl; 2002. p. 1–171.
Aerts, 2004
Dracup JA, Vicuna S. An overview of hydrology and water resources studies on climate change: the California experience. Copyright ASCE 2005; 1–12.
Guo, 2002, A macro-scale and semi-distributed monthly water balance model to predict climate change impacts in China, J Hydrol, 268, 1, 10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00075-6
Ma, 2008, Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in arid region of northwest China, J Hydrol, 352, 239, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.12.022
Wurbs, 2005, Incorporation of climate change in water availability modeling, J Hydrol Eng, 5, 375, 10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2005)10:5(375)
Quinn, 2001, An integrated modeling system for environmental impact analysis of climate variability and extreme weather events in the San Joaquin Basin, California, Adv Environ Res, 5, 309, 10.1016/S1093-0191(01)00081-8
Qin, 2008, A MCDM-based expert system for climate-change impact assessment and adaptation planning – a case study for the Georgia Basin, Canada, Expert Syst Appl, 34, 2164, 10.1016/j.eswa.2007.02.024
Alcamoa, 2007, A new assessment of climate change impacts on food production shortfalls and water availability in Russia, Global Environ Change, 17, 429, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.12.006
Mirza, 2007, Climate change, adaptation and adaptive governance in water sector in South Asia, Phys Sci Basis, 1
Hobbs, 1997, Bayesian methods for analysing climate change and water resource uncertainties, J Environ Manage, 49, 53, 10.1006/jema.1996.0116
Westmacott, 1997, Climate change effects on the hydrologic regime within the Churchill–Nelson River Basin, J Hydrol, 202, 263, 10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00073-5
Stone, 2005, Climate change impacts on Missouri River Basin water yields: the influence of temporal scales, ASCE, 1
Abraha, 2006, Potential impacts of climate change on the grain yield of maize for the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, Agric Ecosyst Environ, 115, 150, 10.1016/j.agee.2005.12.020
Ortiz, 2008, Climate change: can wheat beat the heat?, Agric Ecosyst Environ, 126, 46, 10.1016/j.agee.2008.01.019
Anwar, 2007, Climate change impact on rainfed wheat in south-eastern Australia, Field Crops Res, 104, 139, 10.1016/j.fcr.2007.03.020
Eitzinger, 2003, A simulation study of the effect of soil water balance and water stress on winter wheat production under different climate change scenarios, Agric Water Manage, 61, 195, 10.1016/S0378-3774(03)00024-6
Luo, 2003, Quantitative and visual assessments of climate change impacts on South Australian wheat production, Agric Syst, 77, 173, 10.1016/S0308-521X(02)00109-9
Conde, 2006, Climate change and climate variability impacts on rainfed agricultural activities and possible adaptation measures: a Mexican case study, Atmosfera, 19, 181
Walker, 2006, An assessment of sustainable maize production under different management and climate scenarios for smallholder agro-ecosystems in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, Phys Chem Earth, 31, 995, 10.1016/j.pce.2006.08.012
Tojo Soler, 2007, Application of the CSM-CERES-Maize model for planting date evaluation and yield forecasting for maize grown off-season in a subtropical environment, Eur J Agron, 27, 165, 10.1016/j.eja.2007.03.002
Popova, 2005, CERES model application for increasing preparedness to climate variability in agricultural planning-risk analyses, Phys Chem Earth, 30, 117, 10.1016/j.pce.2004.08.025
Akpalu W, Hassan RM, Ringler C. Climate variability and maize yield in South Africa: results from GME and MELE methods. Environment and production technology division IFPRI discussion paper; 2008. p. 1–12.
Eastering, 1998, Spatial scale of climate information for simulating wheat and maize productivity: the case of the US Great Plains, Agric Forest Meteorol, 90, 51, 10.1016/S0168-1923(97)00091-9
Droogers, 2004, Adaptation strategies to climate change to sustain food security, 49
Krishnan, 2007, Impact of elevated CO2 and temperature on rice yield and methods of adaptation as evaluated by crop simulation studies, Agric Ecosyst Environ, 122, 233, 10.1016/j.agee.2007.01.019
Yao, 2007, Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China, Clim Change, 80, 395, 10.1007/s10584-006-9122-6
Parry, 1999, Climate change and world food security: a new assessment, Global Environ Change, 9, S51, 10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00018-7
Challinor, 2007, Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures, Agric Ecosyst Environ, 119, 190, 10.1016/j.agee.2006.07.009
Xie H, Eheart JW. Assessing vulnerability of water resources to climate change in midwest. Copyright ASCE 2004; 1–10.
Bouman, 2007, A conceptual framework for the improvement of crop water productivity at different spatial scales, Agric Syst, 93, 43, 10.1016/j.agsy.2006.04.004
Kijne, 2003
Kijne, 2003, Improving water productivity in agriculture: editors’ overview, xi
Singh, 2006, Water productivity analysis of irrigated crops in Sirsa district, India, Agric Water Manage, 82, 253, 10.1016/j.agwat.2005.07.027
Zwart, 2004, Review of measured crop water productivity values for irrigated wheat, rice, cotton and maize, Agric Water Manage, 69, 115, 10.1016/j.agwat.2004.04.007
Oram, 1989, Views on the new global context for agricultural research: implications for policy, 3
Carter TR, Hulme M, Viner D. Representing uncertainty in climate change scenarios and impact studies. ECLAT-2 report no. 1. In: Proceedings of the Helsinki workshop, Norwich, UK, April 14–16; 1999. p. 130.
Eitzinger, 2001, A local simulation study on the impact of climate change on winter wheat production in northeastern Austria, Ecol Econ, 52, 199
Sirotenko, 1997, Sensitivity of Russian agriculture to changes in climate, CO2 and tropospheric ozone concentrations and soil fertility, Clim Change, 36, 217, 10.1023/A:1005320521321
Amthor, 2001, Effects of atmospheric CO2 concentration on wheat yield: review of results from experiments using various approaches to control CO2 concentration, Field Crops Res, 73, 1, 10.1016/S0378-4290(01)00179-4
van de Geijn, 1996, The effects of elevated CO2 and temperature change on transpiration and crop water use, 1
Howden M, Jones RN. Risk assessment of climate change impacts on Australia’s wheat industry. In: New directions for a diverse planet: proceedings of the 4th international crop science congress, Brisbane, Australia, Sept. 26–Oct. 1; 2004. p. 1848.
ABARE (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resources Economics). Climate change impacts on Australian agriculture. Aust Commodities 2007;14(4):657–76.
Khan, 2008, Enhancing water productivity at the irrigation system level: a geospatial hydrology application in the Yellow River Basin, J Arid Environ, 72, 1046, 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2007.11.011
Li, 2004, Increasing water productivity for paddy irrigation in China, Paddy Water Environ, 2, 187, 10.1007/s10333-004-0064-1
Govindarajan, 2008, Estimation of paddy water productivity (WP) using hydrological model: an experimental study, Paddy Water Environ, 6, 327, 10.1007/s10333-008-0131-0
Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, et al. Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al., editors. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2007. p. 749–844.
Fischer, 2007, Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements: effects of mitigation, 1990–2080, Technol Forecast Soc Change, 74, 1080, 10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.021
De Silva, 2007, Predicting the impacts of climate change – a case study of paddy irrigation water requirements in Sri Lanka, Agric Water Manage, 93, 19, 10.1016/j.agwat.2007.06.003
Holden, 2006, Adaptation of water and nitrogen management of spring barley and potato as a response to possible climate change in Ireland, Agric Water Manage, 82, 297, 10.1016/j.agwat.2005.07.026
FAO. The state of food insecurity in the world 2001. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome; 2002.
Schmidhuber, 2007, Global food security under climate change, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 19703, 10.1073/pnas.0701976104
FAO. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 summary report. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome; 2002.
Droogers, 2004, Adaptation to climate change to enhance food security and preserve environmental quality: example for southern Sri Lanka, Agric Water Manage, 66, 15, 10.1016/j.agwat.2003.09.005
Droogers, 2005, Adaptation strategies to climate change and climate variability: a comparative study between seven contrasting river basins, Phys Chem Earth, 30, 339, 10.1016/j.pce.2005.06.015