Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity

Ecosphere - Tập 3 Số 6 - Trang 1-22 - 2012
Max A. Moritz1, Marc‐André Parisien1,2, Enric Batllori1, Meg A. Krawchuk1,3, Jeff Van Dorn4,5, David Ganz6,7, Katharine Hayhoe4,8
1Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management University of California Berkeley, California 94720 USA
2Present address: Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Edmonton, Alberta T6H 3S5 Canada.
3Present address: Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia V5A 1S6 Canada.
4ATMOS Research and Consulting, Lubbock, Texas 79490 USA
5Present address: Department of Bioengineering, University of California, San Diego, California 92093 USA.
6Present address: Lowering Emissions in Asia's Forests (LEAF), Bangkok, Thailand 10500.
7The Nature Conservancy, Berkeley, California 94720 USA
8Climate Science Center, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Texas 79409 USA

Tóm tắt

Future disruptions to fire activity will threaten ecosystems and human well‐being throughout the world, yet there are few fire projections at global scales and almost none from a broad range of global climate models (GCMs). Here we integrate global fire datasets and environmental covariates to build spatial statistical models of fire probability at a 0.5° resolution and examine environmental controls on fire activity. Fire models are driven by climate norms from 16 GCMs (A2 emissions scenario) to assess the magnitude and direction of change over two time periods, 2010–2039 and 2070–2099. From the ensemble results, we identify areas of consensus for increases or decreases in fire activity, as well as areas where GCMs disagree. Although certain biomes are sensitive to constraints on biomass productivity and others to atmospheric conditions promoting combustion, substantial and rapid shifts are projected for future fire activity across vast portions of the globe. In the near term, the most consistent increases in fire activity occur in biomes with already somewhat warm climates; decreases are less pronounced and concentrated primarily in a few tropical and subtropical biomes. However, models do not agree on the direction of near‐term changes across more than 50% of terrestrial lands, highlighting major uncertainties in the next few decades. By the end of the century, the magnitude and the agreement in direction of change are projected to increase substantially. Most far‐term model agreement on increasing fire probabilities (∼62%) occurs at mid‐ to high‐latitudes, while agreement on decreasing probabilities (∼20%) is mainly in the tropics. Although our global models demonstrate that long‐term environmental norms are very successful at capturing chronic fire probability patterns, future work is necessary to assess how much more explanatory power would be added through interannual variation in climate variables. This study provides a first examination of global disruptions to fire activity using an empirically based statistical framework and a multi‐model ensemble of GCM projections, an important step toward assessing fire‐related vulnerabilities to humans and the ecosystems upon which they depend.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Adam J. C., 2003, Adjustment of global gridded precipitation for systematic bias, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 108, 4257

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.05.032

10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01754.x

10.1029/2005JG000042

10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01679.x

10.1126/science.1184984

10.1007/978-94-009-1499-5

10.1126/science.1163886

10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02595.x

10.1111/j.1466-8238.2009.00512.x

10.1641/0006-3568(2004)054[0677:EOIAPO]2.0.CO;2

10.1126/science.284.5421.1832

10.1126/science.292.5517.673

10.1146/annurev.es.23.110192.000431

10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x

10.1111/j.2041-210X.2010.00036.x

10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02393.x

Fischlin A, 2007, Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services, Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, 211

10.1007/s10584-005-5935-y

10.1071/WF08187

10.1071/WF99007

10.1029/2005JG000142

10.1029/2004GL020876

10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01869.x

10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00558.x

10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.x

10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00739.x

Higuera P. E, 2008, Frequent fires in ancient shrub tundra: implications of paleorecords for Arctic environmental change, PLoS ONE, 3, e0001744, 10.1371/journal.pone.0001744

10.1890/07-2019.1

10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01256.x

10.1029/2006JD007377

10.1890/1540-9295(2007)5[365:ANGOCE]2.0.CO;2

Kasischke E. S, 2006, Recent changes in the fire regime across the North American boreal region - Spatial and temporal patterns of burning across Canada and Alaska, Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L09703L09703

10.1111/j.1755-263X.2010.00097.x

10.14214/sf.244

10.1371/journal.pone.0005102

10.1890/09-1843.1

10.1111/j.1365-2699.2009.02182.x

10.1029/2009JG001190

Lenihan J. M, 1998, Simulating broad-scale fire severity in a dynamic global vegetation model, Northwest Science, 72, 91

10.1890/07-1183.1

Littell J. S, 2011, Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change, Ecosphere, 2, 102, 10.1890/ES11-00114.1

10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.002

10.1038/nature08649

10.1038/nature10283

10.1038/ngeo313

10.5194/hess-13-183-2009

10.1111/j.1523-1739.2004.00492.x

10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383

10.1177/0309133307079365

10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02061.x

10.1890/08-0134.1

10.1073/pnas.0508985102

10.5194/acp-6-1409-2006

Myers R. L, 2006, Living with fire—sustaining ecosystem and livelihoods through integrated fire management

Nakicenovic N. J, 2000, Special report on emissions scenarios

Nelson A, 2009, Protected area effectiveness in reducing tropical deforestation: a global analysis of the impact of protection status

10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0933:TEOTWA]2.0.CO;2

10.1890/07-1289.1

10.1071/WF11044

10.1007/s10584-011-0060-6

10.1073/pnas.1003669107

10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026

10.1111/j.0906-7590.2008.5203.x

10.1023/A:1005316632105

10.1029/93GB02725

10.1071/WF08032

10.1029/2010GB003906

10.1071/WF10109

10.1073/pnas.0601816103

10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.028

10.1175/2010BAMS2962.1

10.1023/A:1005306001055

10.1175/2009JCLI2577.1

10.1126/science.249.4972.1017

10.1046/j.1466-822X.2001.00175.x

10.5194/bg-7-1991-2010

10.1029/2007GB003122

10.1038/ngeo671

10.1126/science.1128834

10.1073/pnas.1110199108

10.2174/1874213001003020006

10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013685.99609.9e

10.1038/nature08316

10.1073/pnas.0901643106

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Ecosphere

Tập 3 Số 6

1-22

Thông tin tác giả