Nội dung được dịch bởi AI, chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo
Biến Đổi Khí Hậu, Kinh Tế và Xung Đột
Tóm tắt
Mối quan hệ giữa biến đổi khí hậu và xung đột bạo lực đã là chủ đề của cuộc tranh luận học thuật cũng như chính sách nghiêm túc trong vài thập kỷ qua. Các điều kiện kinh tế bất lợi tạo thành một kênh quan trọng liên kết hai hiện tượng này. Ở đây, tôi xem xét các lập luận lý thuyết và bằng chứng thực nghiệm gần đây liên quan đến các điều kiện kinh tế bất lợi do khí hậu tác động đến xung đột. Các điều kiện kinh tế bất lợi do khí hậu có thể dẫn đến xung đột bằng cách làm giảm chi phí cơ hội của bạo lực, làm suy yếu năng lực của nhà nước và gia tăng bất bình đẳng/góc nhìn bất mãn chính trị và kinh tế. Tài liệu thực nghiệm không cung cấp bằng chứng vững chắc cho một mối quan hệ "trực tiếp" giữa khí hậu - kinh tế - xung đột. Nghiên cứu thực nghiệm gần đây cung cấp bằng chứng gợi ý đáng kể rằng các suy thoái kinh tế do khí hậu dẫn đến xung đột tại các khu vực phụ thuộc vào nông nghiệp và đồng thời phối hợp cùng các yếu tố kinh tế xã hội và chính trị khác. Nghiên cứu trong tương lai nên xem xét thêm các bối cảnh mà các điều kiện kinh tế bất lợi do khí hậu dẫn đến xung đột, và cũng xác định và kiểm tra các hệ quả thực nghiệm chính xác của các cơ chế lý thuyết mà thông qua đó các điều kiện kinh tế bất lợi này dẫn đến xung đột bằng cách sử dụng dữ liệu phân tích chi tiết và các quy trình ước lượng phù hợp.
Từ khóa
#biến đổi khí hậu #xung đột #điều kiện kinh tế bất lợi #bằng chứng thực nghiệm #kinh tế xã hộiTài liệu tham khảo
Ahmed KF, Wang G, Yu M, Koo J, You L. Potential impact of climate change on cereal crop yield in West Africa. Clim Chang. 2015;133:321–34.
Arnell NW, Brown S, Gosling SN, et al. The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment. Clim Chang. 2016;134:457–74.
Barrios S, Bertinelli L, Strobl E. Trends in rainfall and economic growth in Africa: a neglected cause of the African growth tragedy. Review of Economics and Statistics. 2010;92(2):350–66.
Bellemare MF. Rising food prices, food price volatility, and social unrest. Am J Agric Econ. 2015;97:1–21.
Berazneva J, Lee DR. Explaining the African food riots of 2007-2008: an empirical analysis. Food Policy. 2013;39(C):28–39.
Bergholt D, Lujala P. Climate-related natural disasters, economic growth, and armed civil conflict. J Peace Res. 2012;49:147–62.
Blattman C, Miguel E. Civil war. J Econ Lit. 2010;48(1):3–57.
Blakeslee DS, Fishman R. Weather shocks, agriculture, and crime: evidence from India. J Hum Resour. 2017; https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.53.3.0715-7234R1.
Boehm R, Cash SB, Anderson BT, et al. Association between empirically estimated monsoon dynamics and other weather factors and historical tea yields in China: results from a yield response model. Climate. 2016;4(2):20.
Böhmelt T, Bernauer T, Buhaug H, Gleditsch NP, Tribaldos T, Wischnath G. Demand, supply, and restrain: determinants of domestic water conflict and cooperation. Glob Environ Chang. 2014;29:337–48.
Bohlken AT, Sergenti EJ. Economic growth and ethnic violence: an empirical investigation of Hindu–Muslim riots in India. J Peace Res. 2010;47(5):589–600.
Buhaug H. Climate change and conflict: taking stock. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy. 2016;22:331–8.
Buhaug H. Climate-conflict research: some reflections on the way forward. WIREs Climate Change. 2015;6:269–75.
Buhaug H. Climate not to be blame for African civil wars. PNAS. 2010;107(38):16477–82.
Buhaug H, Benjaminsen TA, Sjaastad E, Theisen OM. Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. Environ Res Lett. 2015;10:269–75.
Buhaug H, Nordkvelle J, Bernauer T, Böhmelt T, Brzoska M, et al. One effect to rule them all? A comment on quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict. Clim Chang. 2014;127:391–8.
Burke PJ. Economic growth and political survival. The BE Journal of Macroeconomics. 2012;12(1):Article 5.
Burke M, Hsiang SM, Miguel E. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production. Nature. 2015a;527:235–9.
Burke M, Hsiang SM, Miguel E. Climate and conflict. Annual Review of Economics. 2015b;7:577–617.
Burke MB, Miguel E, Satyanath S, Dykema JA, Lobell DB. Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa. PNAS. 2009;106(49):20670–4.
Carleton TA, Hsiang SM. Social and economic impacts of climate. Science. 2016;353:aad9837. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad9837.
Caruso P, Petrarca I, Ricciuti R. Climate change, rice crops, and violence: evidence from Indonesia. J Peace Res. 2016;53(1):66–83.
Cederman L-E, Gleditsch KS, Buhaug H. Inequality, grievances, and civil war. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2013.
Chassang P, Padro-i-Miquel G. Economic shocks and civil war. Quarterly Journal of Political Science. 2009;4(3):211–28.
Chen S, Chen X, Xu J. Assessing the impacts of temperature variations on rice yield in China. Clim Chang. 2016;138:191–205.
Ciccone A. Economic shocks and civil conflict: a comment. American Economic Review Applied Economics. 2011;3(4):215–27.
Couttenier M, Soubeyran R. Drought and civil war in sub-Saharan Africa. Econ J. 2013;124(575):201–44.
Crost B, Duquennois C, Felter J, Rees DI. Climate change, agricultural production and civil conflict: evidence from the Philippines. Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Discussion Papers, No. 8965. 2015.
Dal Bó E, Dal Bó P. Workers, warriors, and criminals: social conflict in general equilibrium. J Eur Econ Assoc. 2011;9(4):646–77.
Davies JC. Toward a theory of revolution. Am Sociol Rev. 1962;27(1):5–19.
Dell M, Jones BF, Olken BA. What do we learn from the weather? The new climate-economy literature. J Econ Lit. 2014;52(3):740–98.
Dell M, Jones BF, Olken BA. Climate change and economic growth: evidence from the last half century. Am Econ J Macroecon. 2012;493:66–95.
Dube O, Vargas J. Commodity price shocks and civil conflict: evidence from Colombia. Rev Econ Stud. 2013;80(4):1384–421.
Evangelista P, Young N, Burnett J. How will climate change spatially affect agriculture production in Ethiopia? Case studies of important cereal crops. Clim Chang. 2013;119:855–73.
Fearon JD. Economic development, insurgency, and civil war. In: Helpman E, editor. Institutions and economic performance. Cambridge: Harvard University Press; 2007.
Fearon JD, Laitin DD. Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war. American Political Science Review. 2003;97(1):75–90.
Fetzer T. Can workfare programs moderate violence? Evidence from India. Working Paper, London School of Economics. 2014.
Fjelde H. Farming or fighting? Agricultural price shocks and civil war in Africa. World Dev. 2015;67:525–34.
Fjelde H, von Uexkull N. Climate triggers: rainfall anomalies, vulnerability and communal conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. Polit Geogr. 2012;31:444–53.
Garfinkel MR, Skaperdas S. Economics of conflict: an overview. In: Hartley K, Sandler T, editors. Handbook of defense economics. Volume 2: defense in a globalized world. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science; 2007. p. 649–709.
Ghimire R, Ferreira S, Dorfman J. Flood-induced displacement and civil conflict. World Dev. 2015;66:614–28.
Gleditsch NP. Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict. J Peace Res. 2012;49:3–9.
Grossman H. Insurrections. In: Hartley K, Sandler T, editors. Handbook of defense economics, vol. 1. Amsterdam: Elsevier; 1995. p. 191–212.
Grossman H. A general equilibrium model of insurrection. Am Econ Rev. 1991;81(4):912–21.
Gunathilaka RPD, Smart J, Fleming C. The impact of changing climate on perennial crops: the case of tea production in Sri Lanka. Clim Chang. 2017;140(3):577–92.
Gupta R, Somanathan E, Dey S. Global warming and local air pollution have reduced wheat yields in India. Clim Chang. 2017;140(3):593–604.
Gurr TR. Why men rebel. Princeton: Princeton University Press; 1970.
Harari M, La Ferrara E. Conflict, climate and cells: a disaggregated analysis. Technical report. 2014.
Hendrix CS, Haggard S. Global food prices, regime type, and urban unrest in the developing world. J Peace Res. 2015;52(2):143–57.
Hendrix C, Salehyan I. Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa. J Peace Res. 2012;49(1):35–50.
Hertel TW. Food security under climate change. Nat Clim Chang. 2016;6:10–3.
Hertel TW, Burke MB, Lobell DB. The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030. Glob Environ Chang. 2010;20(4):577–85.
Hidalgo FD, Naidu S, Nichter S, Richardson N. Economic determinants of land invasions. Review of Economics and Statistics. 2010;92(3):505–23.
Hirshleifer J. Anarchy and its breakdown. J Polit Econ. 1995;103(1):26–52.
Hodler R, Raschky PA. Economic shocks and civil conflict at the regional level. Econ Lett. 2014;124:530–3.
Homer-Dixon TF. Environment, scarcity, violence. Princeton: Princeton University Press; 1999.
Hsiang SM. Temperatures and cyclones strongly associated with economic production in the Caribbean and Central America. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2010;107(35):15367–72.
Hsiang SM, Meng KC. Tropical economics. Am Econ Rev. 2015;105(5):257–61.
Hsiang SM, Burke M. Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say? Clim Chang. 2014;123(1):39–55.
Hsiang SM, Burke M, Miguel E. Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict. Science. 2013;341:1235367.
Hsiang SM, Narita D. Adaptation to cyclone risk: evidence from the global cross-section. Climate Change Economics. 2012;3(2):1–28.
Ide T, Schilling J, Link JSA, Scheffran J, Ngaruiya G, Weinzierl T. On exposure, vulnerability and violence: spatial distribution of risk factors for climate change and violent conflict across Kenya and Uganda. Polit Geogr. 2014;43:68–81.
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. 2013. Available at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_AnnexIII_FINAL.pdf.
Jia R. Weather shocks, sweet potatoes and peasant revolts in historical China. Economic Journal. 2014;124(575):92–118.
Jun T. Temperature, maize yield, and civil conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa. Clim Chang. 2017;142:183–97.
Koubi V, Böhmelt T, Spilker G, Schaffer L. The determinants of environmental migrants’ conflict perception. International Organization (forthcoming). 2017.
Koubi V, Bernauer T, Kalbhenn A, Spilker G. Climate variability, economic growth, and conflict. J Peace Res. 2012;49:113–27.
Landis ST. Temperature seasonality and violent conflict: the inconsistencies of a warming planet. J Peace Res. 2014;51(5):603–18.
Lesk C, Rowhani P, Ramankutty N. Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production. Nature. 2016;529:84–7.
Li T, Angeles O, Radanielson A, Marcaida M III, Manalo E. Drought stress impacts of climate change on rainfed rice in South Asia. Clim Chang. 2015;133:709–20.
Mares DM, Moffett KW. Climate change and interpersonal violence: a “global” estimate and regional inequities. Clim Chang. 2016;135:297–310.
Maystadt J-F, Calderone M, You L. Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan. J Econ Geogr. 2015;15:649–71.
Maystadt J-F, Ecker O. Extreme weather and civil war: does drought fuel conflict in Somalia through livestock price shocks? Am J Agric Econ. 2014;96:1157–82.
Miguel E, Satyanath S. Re-examining economic shocks and civil conflict. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. 2011;3:228–32.
Miguel E, Satyanath S, Sergenti E. Economic shocks and civil conflict: an instrumental variables approach. J Polit Econ. 2004;112(4):725–53.
O’Loughlin J, Linke AM, Witmer FDW. Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on the risk of violence in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-2012. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2014;111:16712–7.
O’Loughlin J, Witmer FDW, Linke AM, Laing A, Gettelman A, Dudhia J. Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990-2009. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2012;109:18344–9.
Payne BK, brown-Iannuzi JL, Hannay JW. Economic inequality increases risk taking. Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences. 2017;114(18):4643–8.
Piontek F, Müller C, Pugh TAM, et al. Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2014;111:3233–8.
Powell R. War as a commitment problem. Int Organ. 2006;60(1):169–203.
Raleigh C, Choi HJ, Kniveton D. The devil is in the details: an investigation of the relationships between conflict, food price and climate across Africa. Glob Environ Chang. 2015;32:187–99.
Raleigh C, Kniveton D. Come rain or shine: an analysis of conflict and climate variability in East Africa. J Peace Res. 2012;49:51–64.
Ranson M. Crime, weather, and climate change. J Environ Econ Manag. 2014;67(3):274–302.
Salehyan I, Hendrix C. Climate shocks and political violence. Glob Environ Chang. 2014;28:239–50.
Sarsons H. Rainfall and conflict: a cautionary tale. J Dev Econ. 2015;115:62–72.
Schleussner C-F, Donges JF, Donner RV, Schellnhuber HJ. Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2016;113:9216–21.
Smith TS. Feeding unrest: disentangling the causal relationship between food price shocks and sociopolitical conflict in urban Africa. J Peace Res. 2014;51(6):679–95.
Theisen OM, Holtermann H, Buhaug H. Climate wars? Assessing the claim that drought breeds conflict. Int Secur. 2012;36:79–106.
Tol RJ, Wagner S. Climate change and violent conflict in Europe over the last millennium. Clim Chang. 2010;99:65–79.
von Uexkull N. Sustained drought, vulnerability and civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. Polit Geogr. 2014;43:16–26.
von Uexkull N, Coicu M, Fjelde H, Buhaug H. Civil conflict sensitivity to growing season drought. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2016;113(44):12391–6.
van Weezel S. Economic shocks and civil conflict onset in sub-Saharan Africa, 1981–2010. Defence and Peace Economics. 2015;26(2):153–77.
Ward MD, Greenhill BD, Bakke KM. The perils of policy by p–value: predicting civil conflicts. J Peace Res. 2010;47(4):363–75.
Weinberg J, Bakker R. Let them eat cake: food prices, domestic policy and social unrest. Conflict Management and Peace Science. 2015;32:309–26.
Wischnath G, Buhaug H. On climate variability and civil war in Asia. Clim Chang. 2014;122(4):709–21.
Yang X, Tian Z, Sun L, Chen B, Tubiello FN, Xu Y. The impacts of increased heat stress events on wheat yield under climate change in China. Clim Chang. 2017;140:605–20.
Yohannes H. A review on relationship between climate change and agriculture. Earth Science and Climate Change. 2016;7(2):335. https://doi.org/10.4172/2157-7617.1000335.
Zhang P, Zhang J, Chen M. Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: the importance of additional climatic variables other than temperature and precipitation. J Environ Econ Manag. 2017;83:8–31.
Zhang DD, Lee HF, Wang C, Li B, Pei Q, Zhang J, et al. The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2011;108(42):17296–301.
Zheng J, Xiao L, Fang X, Hao Z, Ge Q, Li B. How climate change impacted the collapse of the Ming dynasty. Clim Chang. 2014;127:169–82.
