Climate Change Impacts on Flow, Sediment and Nutrient Export in a Great Lakes Watershed Using SWAT

Wiley - Tập 43 Số 11 - Trang 1464-1474 - 2015
Siddhartha Verma1, Rabin Bhattarai1, Nathan S. Bosch2, Richard A. Cooke1, Prasanta K. Kalita1, Momcilo Markus1,3
1Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA
2Environmental Science, Grace College, Winona Lake, IN, USA
3Illinois State Water Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL, USA

Tóm tắt

This study aims at understanding the impacts of projected climate change on the hydrological processes within the Maumee River watershed (16 395 km2) lying in the Lake Erie Basin using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The model was calibrated and validated for a baseline time‐period of 1995–2005. Downscaled ensemble projected temperature and precipitation data from three general circulation models (GCMs) was then used to assess future flow, sediment, and nutrient loading in the watershed for mid‐century (2045–2055) and late‐century (2089–2099) time periods. Compared to the baseline, a 2.9°C rise in the annual average temperature along with a 3.2% fall in the annual precipitation in the mid‐century time‐period is projected to reduce annual flow volumes, and suspended solids (SS), total phosphorus (TP), nitrate (NO3) loads by 8.5, 10.4, 8.5, and 9.9%, respectively. Similarly, for the late‐century a 4.3°C rise in the annual average temperature along with a 5.6% rise in the annual precipitation is projected to increase annual flow volumes, and SS, TP, NO3loads by 9.7, 19.6, 3.5, and 6.8%, respectively. Temporal shifts in climatic conditions were also projected for both the future time‐periods with higher temperatures throughout the year along with wetter winters and drier summers. Implications of these changes would include the need for an increased focus on pollutant loadings for total maximum daily load guidelines and possible lengthening of crop growing cycles.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.01.026

Field C. B., 2012, Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

10.1007/s10584-011-0087-8

10.1073/pnas.0700609104

10.1023/A:1005488920935

10.1175/JHM600.1

Meehl G. A., 2007, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Kundzewicz Z. W., 2007, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

10.1641/B580807

10.1002/hyp.8367

10.1080/02626660109492798

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.05.016

10.1002/hyp.6534

10.1038/nature04312

10.1177/0309133309348098

10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.03.001

10.1002/hyp.326

10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00288-3

10.13031/2013.39842

Pruski F. F., 2002, Runoff and Soil‐Loss Responses to Changes in Precipitation: A Computer Simulation Study, J. Soil Water Conserv, 57, 7

Arnell N. W., 2001, Climate Change 2001: Impacts. Adaptation and Vulnerability

10.1016/j.jglr.2009.11.012

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.03.026

10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05961.x

Skoulikaris C., 2012, National Security and the Human Health Implications of Climate Change

NRCS Western Lake Erie Basin Water Resources Protection Plan: Ohio Indiana and Michigan Natural Resources Conservation Service Washington DC2005.

Myers D. N., 2000, Water Resources Investigations Report: 2000–4091

Richards R. P., 2002, Trends in Agriculture in the LEASEQ Watersheds, 1975–1995, J. Environ. Qual, 31, 17, 10.2134/jeq2002.1700

10.1111/j.1752-1688.1994.tb03304.x

10.1016/j.jglr.2011.03.004

10.1002/clen.201100652

10.13031/2013.23637

Neitsch S. L., 2002, Soil and Water Assessment Tool Theoretical Documentation Version 2000

10.13031/2013.34915

Allan J. D., 2004, An Assessment of Flows for Rivers of the Great Lakes Basin

Ruddy B. C., 2006, County‐ Level Estimates of Nutrient Inputs to the Land Surface of the Conterminous United States, 1982–2001, 10.3133/sir20065012

Parry M. L., 2007, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

10.1175/2009JCLI3361.1

10.1175/2008MWR2773.1

K. A.Hayhoe PhD Thesis University of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign Illinois USA2010.

10.13031/2013.20415

Walker W. W., 1978, Proceedings of the International Symposium on the Environmental Effects of Hydraulic Engineering Works

10.1007/BF02573956

10.1007/s10705-005-3109-y

10.2166/hydro.2007.104

10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6

10.13031/2013.23153

10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2005)10:5(363)

10.2489/jswc.63.4.193

10.2306/scienceasia1513-1874.2011.37.043

10.1021/es052573n

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Wiley

Tập 43 Số 11

1464-1474

Thông tin tác giả