Childbearing among Polish migrant women and their descendants in Sweden: an origin-destination country approach
Tóm tắt
This paper examines the childbearing behaviour of Polish migrant women and their descendants in Sweden. Also considering stayers in the country of origin, we rely on a country-of-origin and country-of-destination approach in a careful examination regarding the relevance of three hypotheses on migrant fertility: the socialisation, selection, and adaptation hypotheses. We analyse the transitions to first and second births based on a piecewise exponential model, using Swedish register data and the Polish Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) first wave. The results support the socialisation hypothesis, as the Polish stayers and the first-generation Polish migrants have their first child at younger ages and are less likely to remain childless than the other groups but are also more likely to not proceed to a second child, unlike the Swedish natives and the second generation. We find partial support for the selection hypothesis. Descriptively, we observe signs of selection into migration based on education, cohort, and marital status. Additionally, our study shows that the impact of marriage varies between stayers and migrants, in the first-birth transition, suggesting selection into migration when it comes to unobserved characteristics as well. The adaptation hypothesis is also supported, as the fertility behaviour of the second generation more closely resembles that of the Swedish natives than that of the first generation and differs more from that of the Polish stayers in terms of both quantum and timing of the first and second births.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Abbasi-Shavazi, M. J., & McDonald, P. (2000). Fertility and multiculturalism: Immigrant fertility in Australia, 1997–1991. International Migration Review, 34(1), 215–242
Adserá, A., & Ferrer, A. (2015). Immigrants and demography: Marriage, divorce and fertility. Handbook of the economics of international migration, 1, 315–374
Adserá, A., Ferrer, A., Sigle-Rushton, W., & Wilson, B. (2012). Fertility patterns of child migrants: Age at migration and ancestry in comparative perspective. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 643(1), 160–189
Andersson, G. (2004). Childbearing after migration: Fertility patterns of foreign-born women in Sweden. International Migration Review, 38(2), 747–775
Andersson, G., Hoem, J., & Duvander, A. Z. (2006). Social differentials in speed-premium effects in childbearing in Sweden. Demographic Research, 14, 51–70
Andersson, G., Persson, L., & Obućina, O. (2017). Depressed fertility among descendants of immigrants in Sweden. Demographic Research, 36(39), 1149–1184
Andersson, G., & Scott, K. (2005). Labour-market status and first-time parenthood: The experience of immigrant women in Sweden, 1981-97. Population Studies, 59(1), 21–38
Andersson, G., & Scott, K. (2007). Childbearing dynamics of couples in a universalistic welfare state: The role of labour-market status, country of origin, and gender. Demographic Research, 17(30), 897–938
Bagavos, C., Tsimbos, C., & Verropoulou, G. (2008). Native and migrant fertility patterns in Greece: A cohort approach. European Journal of Population, 24(3), 245–263
Baykara-Krumme, H., & Milewski, N. (2017). Fertility patterns among Turkish women in Turkey and abroad: The effects of international mobility, migrant generation, and family background. European Journal of Population, 33(3), 409–436
Bengtsson, T. (2008). Förändrat flyttmönster från Polen. Fokus på näringsliv och arbetsmarknad. Information om arbetsmarknad (2.). Statistics Sweden
Billingsley, S., & Matysiak, A. (2018). Social mobility and family expansion in Poland and Russia during socialism and capitalism. Advances in Life Course Research, 36, 80–91
Blau, F. (1992). The fertility of immigrant women: Evidence from high-fertility source countries. In J. George, & R. Freeman (Eds.), Immigration and the work force: Economic consequences for the United States and source areas (pp. 93–133). Chicago and London: The University of Chicago Press
Blossfeld, H. P., Golsch, K., & Rohwer, G. (2007). Event history analysis with Stata. Lawrence Erlbaum
Carlsson, E. (2019). Fertility intentions across immigrant generations in Sweden: Do patterns of adaptation differ by gender and origin? Comparative Population Studies, 43, 211–242
Castles, S., De Haas, H., & Miller, M. (2014). The age of migration: International population movements in the modern world. Guilford Publications
Choi, K. H. (2014). Fertility in the context of Mexican migration to the United States: A case for incorporating the pre-migration fertility of immigrants. Demographic Research, 30, 703–738
Coale, A., & Trussell, T. (1974). Model fertility schedules: Variations in the age structure of childbearing in human populations. Population Index, 40(2), 185–258
Coleman, D. (1994). Trends in fertility and intermarriage among immigrant populations in Western Europe as measure of integration. Journal of Biosocial Science, 26, 107–136
Dubuc, S. (2012). Immigration to the UK from high-fertility countries: Intergenerational adaptation and fertility convergence. Population and Development Review, 38(2), 353–368
Eurostat (2018). International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED). https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/International_Standard_Classification_of_Education_(ISCED)
Eurostat (2019). Migration and migrant population statistics. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Migration_and_migrant_population_statistics
Eurostat (2020). Population on 1 January by age group, sex and country of birth. http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/submitViewTableAction.do
Eurostat (2021). Fertility indicators. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/demo_find/default/table?lang=en
Fahlén, S., & Oláh, L. (2013). Work and childbearing intentions from a capability perspective: Young adult women in Sweden. In F. Oláh (Ed.), Childbearing, women’s employment and work-life balance policies in contemporary Europe (pp. 28–64). Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan
Fokkema, T., Emery, T., Kveder, A., Liefbroer, A., & Hiekel, N. (2016). Generations and Gender Programme Wave 1 data collection: An overview and assessment of sampling and fieldwork methods, weighting procedures, and cross-sectional representativeness. Demographic Research, 34(18), 499–524
Frank, R., & Heuveline, P. (2005). A crossover in Mexican and Mexican-American fertility rates: Evidence and explanations for an emerging paradox. Demographic Research, 12(4), 77–104
Glick, J. (2010). Connecting complex processes: A decade of research on immigrant families. Journal of Marriage and Family, 72(3), 498–515
Gołata, E. (2016). Estimation of fertility in Poland and of Polish born women in the United Kingdom. Studia Demograficzne, 1(169), 13–38. DOI:https://doi.org/10.33119/SD.2016.1.1
Goldstein, S., & Goldstein, A. (1983). Migration and fertility in Peninsular Malaysia: An analysis using life history data. Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation
Grzenda, W., & Frątczak, E. (2018). Cohort patterns of fertility in Poland based on staging process—generations 1930–1980. Statistics in Transition New Series, 19(2), 315–330. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21307/stattrans-2018-018
Guarin Rojas, Bernardi, L., & Schmid, F. (2018). First and second births among immigrants and their descendants in Switzerland. Demographic Research, 38(11), 247–286
Güveli, A., Ganzeboom, H., Platt, L., Nauck, B., Baykara-Krumme, H., Eroglu, S. … Eroğlu-Hawskworth, Ş. (2016). Intergenerational consequences of migration: Socio-economic, family and cultural patterns of stability and change in Turkey and Europe. Springer
Hoem, J. M., & Nedoluzhko, L. (2016). The dangers of using ‘negative durations’ to estimate pre- and post-migration fertility. Population Studies, 70(3), 359–363. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2016.1221442
Hort, S. E., Kings, L., & Kravchenko, Z. (2016). Still awaiting the storm? The Swedish welfare state after the latest crisis. Challenges to European welfare systems (pp. 671–691). Cham: Springer
Impicciatore, R., Gabrielli, G., & Paterno, A. (2020). Migrants’ fertility in Italy: A comparison between origin and destination.European Journal of Population,1–27
Jalovaara, M., Neyer, G., Andersson, G., Dahlberg, J., Dommermuth, L., Fallesen, P., & Lappegård, T. (2019). Education, gender and cohort fertility in the Nordic countries. European Journal of Population, 35, 563–586
Kahn, J. (1988). Immigrant selectivity and fertility adaptation in United States. Social Forces, 67(1), 108–128
Kaufman, G., Bernhardt, E., & Goldscheider, F. (2017). Enduring egalitarianism? Family transitions and attitudes towards gender equality in Sweden. Journal of Family Issues, 38(13), 1878–1898
Klimek, L. (2017). Migration and fertility. Polish migrant families in Ireland and non-migrant families in Poland: A comparison of fertility plans and behaviour. Central and Eastern European Migration Review, 6(2), 5–30
Klinthäll, M. (2006). Retirement return migration from Sweden. International Migration, 44(2), 153–180
Klinthäll, M. (2007). Refugee return migration: Return migration from Sweden to Chile, Iran and Poland 1973–1996. Journal of Refugee Studies, 20(4), 579–598
Kotowska, I., Józwiak, J., Mynarska, M., & Katarzyna, K. G. (2019). Generations and Gender Survey Poland Wave 1 & Wave 2: Study Documentation & Wave 2 File and Variables Descriptions. https://www.ggp-i.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/GGS_W1W2_Poland.pdf
Kulu, H., Vikat, A., & Andersson, G. (2007). Settlement size and fertility in the Nordic countries. Population Studies, 61(3), 265–285
Kulu, H., & González-Ferrer, A. (2014). Family dynamics among immigrants and their descendants in Europe: Current research and opportunities. European Journal of Population, 30(4), 411–435
Kulu, H., Hannemann, T., Pailhé, A., Neels, K., Krapf, S., González-Ferrer, A., & Andersson, G. (2017). Fertility by birth order among the descendants of immigrants in selected European countries. Population Development Review, 43(1), 31–60
Kulu, H., & Hannemann, T. (2016). Why does fertility remain high among certain UK-born ethnic minority women? Demographic Research, 35(49), 1441–1488
Kulu, H., Milewski, N., Hannemann, T., & Mikolai, J. (2019). A decade of life-course research on fertility of immigrants and their descendants in Europe. Demographic Research, 40, 1345–1374
Lessard-Phillips, L., Galandini, S., de Valk, H., & Fibbi, R. (2017). Damned if you do, damned if you don’t: The challenges of including and comparing the children of immigrants. In C. Bolzman, L. Bernardi, & Le J. M. Goff (Eds.), Situating children of migrants across borders and origins. Life Course Research and Social Policies 7 (pp. 25–53). Dordrecht: Springer
Lesthaeghe, R. (2011). The ‘Second demographic transition’: A conceptual map for the understanding of late modern demographic developments in fertility and family formation. Historical Social Research, 36(2), 179–218
Lindstrom, D. P., & Saucedo, S. G. (2002). The short- and long-term effects of US migration experience on Mexican women’s fertility. Social Forces, 80(4), 1341–1368
Lindstrom, D. P., & Saucedo, S. G. (2007). The interrelationship between fertility, family maintenance, and Mexico-US migration. Demographic Research, 17, 821–858
Lübke, C. (2015). How migration affects the timing of childbearing: The transition to a first birth among Polish Women in Britain. European Journal of Population, 31(1), 1–20
Macisco, J., Bouvier, L., & Renzi, M. (1969). Migration status, education and fertility in Puerto Rico, 1960. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 47(2), 167–186
Marczak, J., Sigle, W., & Coast, E. (2018). When the grass is greener: Fertility decisions in a cross-national context. Population Studies, 72(2), 201–216
Massey, D. S., & Mullan, B. P. (1984). Processes of Hispanic and black spatial assimilation. American Journal of Sociology, 89(4), 836–873
Matysiak, A., & Vignoli, D. (2013). Diverse effects of women’s employment on fertility: Insights from Italy and Poland. European Journal of Population, 29(3), 273–302
Milewski, N. (2007). First child of immigrant workers and their descendants in West Germany: Interrelation of events, disruption, or adaptation? Demographic Research, 17(29), 859–895
Milewski, N. (2010a). Immigrant fertility in West Germany: Is there a socialization effect in transitions to second and third births? European Journal of Population, 26(3), 297–323
Milewski, N. (2010b). Fertility of immigrants: A two-generational approach in Germany. Berlin: Springer
Milewski, N. (2011). Transition to a first birth among Turkish second-generation migrants in Western Europe. Advances in Life Course Research, 16(4), 178–189
Milewski, N., & Mussino, E. (2018). Editorial on the Special Issue “New Aspects on Migrant Populations in Europe: Norms, Attitudes and Intentions in Fertility and Family Planning. Comparative Population Studies, 43, 371–398
Mills, M. (2011). Introducing survival and event history analysis. London: SAGE Publications Ltd.
Monti, A., Drefahl, S., Mussino, E., & Härkönen, J. (2020). Over-coverage in population registers leads to bias in demographic estimates. Population Studies, 74(3), 451–469
Mussino, E., Miranda, V., & Ma, L. (2018). Changes in sex ratio at birth among immigrant groups in Sweden. Genus, 74(1), 13
Mussino, E., & Strozza, S. (2012). The fertility of immigrants after arrival: The Italian case. Demographic Research, 26(4), 97–130
Mussino, E., Wilson, B., & Andersson, G. (2021). The fertility of immigrants from low-fertility settings: Adaptation in the quantum and tempo of childbearing? Demography, online first DOI: https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-9476273
Nahmias, P. (2004). Fertility behaviour of recent immigrants to Israel: A comparative analysis of immigrants from Ethiopia and the former Soviet Union. Demographic Research, 10(4), 83–120
Neyer, G. (2013). Welfare states, family policies, and fertility in Europe. In G. Neyer, G. Andersson, H. Kulu, L. Bernardi, & C. Bühler (Eds.), The Demography of Europe (pp. 29–53). Dordrecht: Springer
OECD (2018). OECD Family Database: The structure of families (SF): SF2.4 Share of births outside of marriage. Data Chart Births_outside_marriage. Share of births outside of marriage. http://www.oecd.org/els/family/database.htm
OECD (2019). OECD Family Database: Public Policies for families and children (PF): PF1.1 Public spending on family benefits. Data Chart PF1. 1.A. Public spending on family benefits. http://www.oecd.org/els/family/database.htm
OECD (2020). International Migration Database. https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=MIG
Pailhé, A. (2017). The convergence of second-generation immigrants’ fertility patterns in France: The role of sociocultural distance between parents’ and host country. Demographic Research, 36(45), 1361–1398
Parrado, E. A. (2011). How high is Hispanic/Mexican fertility in the United States? Immigration and tempo considerations. Demography, 48(3), 1059–1080
Puur, A., Rahnu, L., Abuladze, L., Sakkeus, L., & Zakharov, S. (2017). Childbearing among first—and second—generation Russians in Estonia against the background of the sending and host countries. Demographic Research, 36(41), 1209–1254
Rumbaut, R. (2004). Ages, life stages, and generational cohorts: Decomposing the immigrant first and second generations in the United States. International Migration Review, 38(3), 1160–1205
Saarela, J., & Weber, R. (2017). Assessment of educational misclassification in register-based data on Finnish immigrants in Sweden. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, 45(17), 20–24
Schoenmaekers, R., Lodewijckx, E., & Gadeyne, S. (1999). Marriages and fertility among Turkish and Moroccan women in Belgium: Results from census data. International Migration Review, 33(4), 901–928
Scott, K., & Stanfors, M. (2011). The transition to parenthood among the second generation: Evidence from Sweden, 1990–2005. Advances in Life Course Research, 16(4), 190–204
Siemieńska, R., & Domaradzka, A. (2016). Between constrained opportunities and social expectations: Social policy in contemporary Poland. Challenges to European Welfare Systems (pp. 563–586). Cham: Springer
Smith, G. C. S., Pell, J. P., & Dobbie, R. (2003). Interpregnancy interval and risk of preterm birth and neonatal death: retrospective cohort study. BMJ, 327, 313
Sobotka, T. (2008). Overview Chap. 7: The rising importance of migrants for childbearing in Europe. Demographic Research, 19(9), 225–248
Statistics Sweden (2010). Born in Sweden—but still different? The significance of parents’ country of birth. Demografiska rapporter 2010:2
Statistics Sweden (2012). Background material about demography, children and family 2012:1. The significance of time in Sweden on fertility. https://www.scb.se/contentassets/0bbc2d0826d1457591fac80777f352be/be0401_2000i09_br_be52br1201.pdf
Statistics Sweden (2018). Nedåtgående trend i barnafödande.
https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/artiklar/2018/nedatgaende-trend-i-barnafodande/
Szelewa, D. (2017). From implicit to explicit familialism: Post-1989 family policy reforms in Poland. In D. Auth, & H. J. Holland-Cunz B. (Eds.), Gender and family in European economic policy (pp. 129–151). Cham: Palgrave Macmillan
Tomescu-Dubrow, I., Dubrow, J. K., Kiersztyn, A., Andrejuk, K., Kołczyńska, M., & Slomczynski, K. M. (2019). Economic context, labor market situation, and employment policies. The Subjective Experience of Joblessness in Poland (pp. 13–40). Cham: Springer
Tønnessen, M., & Mussino, E. (2020). Fertility patterns of migrants from low-fertility countries in Norway. Demographic Research, 42(31), 859–874
Tønnessen, M., & Wilson, B. (2020). Visualising immigrant fertility—Profiles of childbearing and their implications for migration research. Journal of International Migration and Integration. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12134-020-00762-5
Van Landshoot, L., de Valk, H. A. G., & Van Bavel, J. (2017). Fertility among descendants of immigrants in Belgium: The role of the partner. Demographic Research, 36(60), 1827–1858
Vignoli, D., Matysiak, A., Styrc, M., & Tocchioni, V. (2018). The positive impact of women’s employment on divorce: Context, selection, or anticipation? Demographic Research, 38(37), 1059–1110
Waller, L., Berrington, A., & Raymer, J. (2014). New insights into the fertility patterns of recent Polish migrants in the United Kingdom. Journal of Population Research, 31, 131–150. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-014-9125-5
Wells, M. B., & Bergnehr, D. (2014). Families and family policies in Sweden. In M. Robila (Ed.), Handbook of family policies across the globe. New York, NY: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-6771-7_7
Wilson, B. (2013). Disentangling the quantum and tempo of immigrant fertility. Paper presented at the 7th International Conference on Population Geographies in Groningen, The Netherlands, 25–28 June 2013
Wilson, B. (2019). The intergenerational assimilation of completed fertility: Comparing the convergence of different origin groups. International Migration Review, 53(2), 429–457. https://doi.org/10.1177/0197918318769047