Capture-recapture method to determine the best design of a surveillance system. Application to a thyroid cancer registry

European Journal of Epidemiology - 2000
Shirley Ballivet1, L. Rachid Salmi2, Dominique Dubourdieu3
1Département d'information médicale, Centre hospitalier territorial, Nouméa, New Caledonia
2Université Victor Segalen Bordeaux 2, France
3Laboratoire d'anatomie et de cytologie pathologique, Nouméa, New Caledonia

Tóm tắt

The capture-recapture method is often confronted, when assessing completeness of surveys, to problems of dependence of data sources. The objective of this paper is to discuss the application of capture-recapture methods to choose the optimal combination of sources for a surveillance system. Our approach is based on: (1) using multiple sources, (2) assessing dependence between sources and between pools of dependent sources and other sources, (3) ruling out combinations that yield biased estimates, and (4) choosing the combinations of sources that have the best ratio between precision and applicability. We studied the independence for each pair of sources by computing the capture-recapture odds ratio. We characterized all combinations of sources by their sensitivity, coefficient of variation of the estimated number of cases, and level of resources needed to ascertain cases. Application of the approach is illustrated by data from a survey of thyroid cancer in New Caledonia, where five sources were used to estimate the incidence. The five sources provided 119 cases; the exhaustivity of sources and combinations of sources varied from 27.1 to 99.2%. Determination of dependence revealed ten dependencies out of 22 combinations. Coefficients of variation of the estimated number of cases varied from 0.83 to 27.79. The preferred combination included four sources and had a sensitivity of 97.5 and a coefficient of variation of 0.94. An assessment of dependence, based on simple criteria, can be used to choose the best combination of sources for a registry or a surveillance system.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Thacker SB, Stroup DF. Future directions for comprehensive public health surveillance and health information systems in the United States. Am J Epidemiol 1994; 140: 383–397.

Ménégoz F. Les registres des cancers en France. Bull Epidemiol Hebdo 1992; (35): 169–170.

Rothenberg RB, Steinberg KK, Thacker SB. The public health importance of clusters: A note from the 152 Centers for Disease Control. Am J Epidemiol 1990; 132: S3-S5.

Wittes JT, Sidel VW. A generalization of the simple capture-recapture model with applications to epidemiological research. J Chron Dis 1968; 21: 287–307.

Robles SC, Marrett LD, Clarke EA, et al. An application of capture-recapture methods to the estimation of completeness of cancer registration. J Clin Epidemiol 1988; 41: 495–501.

Sutter RW, Cochi S. Pertussis hospitalization and mortality in the United States, 1985–1988. Evaluation of the completeness of national reporting. JAMA 1992; 267: 386–391.

Laporte RE, Tulle ES, McCarthy D. Monitoring the incidence of myocardial infarctions: Applications of capture-mark-capture technology. Int J Epidemiol 1992; 21: 258–263.

Chiu W-T, Dearwater SR, McCarthy DJ, et al. Establishment of accurate incidence rates for head and spinal cord injuries in developing and developed countries: A capture-recapture approach. J Trauma 1993; 35: 206–211.

Wittes JT, Colton T, Sidel VW. Capture-recapture methods for assessing the completeness of case ascertainment when using multiple information sources. J Chron Dis 1974; 27: 25–36.

Carrasco JLS, Legua OM, Fishbein D. Priorities in public health surveillance when resources are limited. MMWR 1992; 41(Suppl.): 85–89.

LaPorte RE, Dearwater SR, Chang Y-F, et al. Efficiency and accuracy of disease monitoring systems: Applications of capture-recapture methods to injury monitoring. Am J Epidemiol 1995; 142: 1069–1077.

International Working Group for Disease Monitoring and Forecasting. Capture-recapture and multiple-record systems estimation I: History and theoretical development. Am J Epidemiol 1995; 142: 1047–1058.

Ballivet S, Salmi LR, Dubourdieu D, et al. Incidence of thyroid cancer in New Caledonia, during 1985–1992. Am J Epidemiol 1995; 141: 741–746.

Hedinger C, Williams ED, Sobin LH. The WHO histological classification of thyroid tumors: A commentary on the second edition. Cancer 1989; 63: 908–911.

Egeland GM, Perham-Hester KA, Hook EB. Use of capture-recapture analyses in fetal alcohol syndrome surveillance in Alaska. Am J Epidemiol 1995; 141: 335–341.

Brenner H. Use and limitations of the capture-recapture method in disease monitoring with two dependent sources. Epidemiology 1995; 6: 42–48.

Mastro T, Kitayaporn D, Weniger BG, et al. Estimating the number or HIV-infected injection drug users in Bangkok: A capture-recapture method. Am J Public Health 1994; 84: 1094–1099.

Neugebauer R, Wittes J. Annotation: Voluntary and involuntary capture-recapture samples-Problems in the estimation of hidden and elusive populations. Am J Public Health 1994; 84: 1068–1069.

Hook EB, Regal RR. Capture-recapture methods in epidemiology: Methods and limitations. Epidemiol Rev 1995; 17: 243–264.

Hook EB, Regal RR. The value of capture-recapture methods even for apparent exhaustive surveys. The need for adjustment for source of ascertainment inter-section in attempted complete prevalence studies. Am J Epidemiol 1992; 135: 1060–1067.

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

European Journal of Epidemiology

Thông tin tác giả