Liệu có thể có một giải thích Bayes không? Về triển vọng của một mối quan hệ hợp tác hiệu quả

Synthese - Tập 194 - Trang 1245-1272 - 2015
Frank Cabrera1
1Department of Philosophy, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, USA

Tóm tắt

Trong bài báo này, tôi xem xét mối quan hệ giữa Suy diễn đến Giải thích Tốt nhất (IBE) và Bayesianism, cả hai đều là những quan điểm nổi tiếng về bản chất của suy diễn khoa học. Trong Mục 2, tôi sẽ cung cấp một cái nhìn tổng quan về Bayesianism và IBE. Trong Mục 3, tôi tranh luận rằng IBE ở các hình thức được bảo vệ rõ ràng nhất khó lòng hòa hợp với Bayesianism vì không phải tất cả các mục có mặt trong danh sách phổ biến về “các đức tính giải thích” — theo đó mà IBE xếp hạng các giải thích cạnh tranh — đều có giá trị xác nhận. Trên thực tế, một số mục trong những danh sách này là “các đức tính thông tin” — những thuộc tính không làm cho một giả thuyết \(H_{1}\) có xác suất cao hơn một đối thủ \(H_{2}\) nào đó khi có bằng chứng E, nhưng mà, theo cách nói chung, giúp giả thuyết đó có nội dung thông tin lớn hơn. Trong Mục 4, tôi xem xét một phản ứng đối với lập luận của tôi là một phiên bản gần đây của thuyết hòa hợp, cho rằng IBE có thể cung cấp thêm các ràng buộc chuẩn mực cho hàm xác suất đúng đắn một cách khách quan. Tôi lập luận rằng phản ứng này không thành công, do khó khăn trong việc bảo vệ một cách tổng quát cho các ràng buộc chuẩn mực như vậy. Cuối cùng, trong Mục 5, tôi đề xuất rằng IBE nên được coi là một lý thuyết về khi nào chúng ta nên “chấp nhận” H, trong đó tính chấp nhận của H được xác định bởi các mục tiêu của khoa học và mối quan tâm về việc H có xứng đáng để cam kết như một chương trình nghiên cứu hay không. Theo cách này, IBE và Bayesianism, như tôi sẽ chỉ ra, có thể được làm cho tương thích, và do vậy, người theo Bayesian và người ủng hộ IBE có thể trở thành bạn bè.

Từ khóa

#Suy diễn đến Giải thích Tốt nhất #Bayesianism #giả thuyết #lý thuyết khoa học #ràng buộc chuẩn mực

Tài liệu tham khảo

Ben-Menahem, Y. (1990). The inference to the best explanation. Erkenntnis, 33(3), 319–344. Betz, G. (2013). Justifying inference to the best explanation as a practical meta-syllogism on dialectical structures. Synthese, 190, 3553–3578. Boyd, R. (1983). On the current status of scientific realism. Erkenntnis, 19(3), 45–90. Bratman, M. (1999). Faces of intention. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Brown, M. (2013). Values in science beyond underdetermination and inductive risk. Philosophy of Science, 80(5), 829–839. Callender, C., & Huggett, N. (2001). Introduction. In C. Callender & N. Huggett (Eds.), Physics meets philosophy at the Planck scale: Contemporary theories in quantum gravity. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Campos, D. (2009). On the distinction between Peirce’s abduction and Lipton’s inference to the best explanation. Synthese, 180(3), 419–442. Carnap, R. (1962). Logical foundations of probability (2nd ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Cartwright, N. (1983). How the laws of physics lie. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Cohen, J. (1992). An essay on belief and acceptance. New York: Oxford University Press. Darwin, C. (1962). On the origin of species. New York: Collier. Dawes, G. (2013). Belief is not the issue: A defence of inference to the best explanation. Ratio, 26(1), 62–78. Douglas, H. (2000). Inductive risk and values in science. Philosophy of Science, 67(4), 559–579. Douglas, H. (2009). Science, policy, and the value-free ideal. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press. Douven, I. (2005). Wouldn’t it be lovely: Explanation and scientific realism. Metascience, 14, 338–343. Douven, I., & Schupbach, J. (2015). Probabilistic alternatives to Bayesianism: The case of explanationism. Frontiers in Psychology, 6, 459. doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00459. Douven, I., & Wenmackers, S. (2015). Inference to the best explanation versus Bayes’s rule in a social setting. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. doi:10.1093/bjps/axv025. Elliott, K. (2011). Direct and indirect roles for values in science. Philosophy of Science, 78, 303–328. Elliott, K. C., & McKaughan, D. J. (2014). Non-epistemic values and the multiple goals of science. Philosophy of Science, 81(1), 1–21. Elliott, K. C., & Willmes, D. (2013). Cognitive attitudes and values in science. Philosophy of Science, 80(5), 807–817. Fitelson, B. (1999). The plurality of Bayesian measures of confirmation and the problem of measure sensitivity. Philosophy of Science, 66, S362–S378. Forster, M., & Sober, E. (1994). How to tell when simpler, more unified, or less ad hoc theories will provide more accurate predictions. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 45(1), 1–35. Friedman, M. (1974). Explanation and scientific understanding. The Journal of Philosophy, 71(1), 5–19. Glymour, C. (2015). Probability and the explanatory virtues. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 66(3), 591–604. Goldman, A. (1986). Epistemology and cognition. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Goodman, N. (1954). Fact, fiction, and forecast. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Harman, G. (1965). The inference to the best explanation. Philosophical Review, 74, 88–95. Hempel, C., & Oppenheim, P. (1948). Studies in the logic of explanation. Philosophy of Science, 15, 135–175. Henderson, L. (2014). Bayesianism and inference to the best explanation. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 65(4), 687–715. Hintikka, J., & Pietarinen, J. (1966). Semantic information and inductive logic. In J. Hintikka & P. Suppes (Eds.), Aspects of inductive logic (pp. 96–112). Amsterdam: North-Holland. Hitchcock, C. (2007). The lovely and the probable. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 74(2), 433–440. Huber, F. (2007). Hempel’s logic of confirmation. Philosophical Studies, 139(2), 181–189. Huemer, M. (2009). Explanationist aid for the theory of inductive logic. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 60, 345–375. Janssen, M. (2002). COI stories: Explanation and evidence from Copernicus to Hockney. Perspectives on Science, 10, 457–522. Jeffrey, R. (1983). The logic of decision (2nd ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Jeffreys, H. (1931). Scientific inference. London: Macmillan. Kaplan, M. (1996). Decision theory as philosophy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Kelvin, L. (1862). Physical considerations regarding the possible age of the Sun’s heat. Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science, 23(4), 158–160. Kitcher, P. (1989). Explanatory unification and the causal structure of the world. In P. Kitcher & W. Salmon (Eds.), Scientific explanation (Vol. 13, pp. 410–505)., Minnesota Studiesin the Philosophy of Science Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. Kourany, J. A. (2003). A philosophy of science for the twenty-first century. Philosophy of Science, 70(1), 1–14. Kuhn, T. (1962). The structure of scientific revolutions (1st ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press (2nd ed. 1970). Kuhn, T. (1977). The essential tension (pp. 320–339). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Kukla, A. (1994). Non-empirical theoretical virtues and the argument from underdetermination. Erkenntnis, 41(2), 157–170. Kyburg, H. (1961). Probability and the logic of rational belief. Middletown: Wesleyan University Press. Lacey, H. (1999). Is science value-free? Values and scientific understanding. London: Routledge. Lange, M. (2004). Bayesianism and unification: A reply to Wayne Myrvold. Philosophy of Science, 71(2), 205–215. Laudan, L. (1977). Progress and its problems: Toward a theory of scientific growth. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press. Levi, I. (1960). Must the scientist make value judgments? Journal of Philosophy, 57, 345–357. Levi, I. (1967). Gambling with truth: An essay on induction and the aims of science. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Lewis, D. (1973). Counterfactuals. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Lewis, D. (1981). A subjectivist’s guide to objective chance. The University of Western Ontario Series in Philosophy of Science, 15, 267–297. Lipton, P. (2001). Is explanation a guide to inference? A reply to Wesley C. Salmon. In G. Hon & S. S. Rakover (Eds.), Explanation: Theoretical approaches and applications (pp. 93–120). Dordrecht: Kluwer. Lipton, P. (2004). Inference to the best explanation (2nd ed.). New York: Routledge. Lipton, P. (2007). Replies. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 74(2), 433–440. Longino, H. (1996). Cognitive and non-cognitive values in science: Rethinking the dichotomy. In L. H. Nelson & J. Nelson (Eds.), Feminism, science, and the philosophy of science (pp. 39–58). Dordrecht: Kluwer. Lycan, W. G. (1988). Judgement and justification. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Lycan, W. G. (2002). Explanation and epistemology. In P. Moser (Ed.), Oxford handbook of epistemology (pp. 408–433). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Machamer, P., Darden, L., & Craver, C. (2000). Thinking about mechanisms. Philosophy of Science, 67, 1–25. Mackonis, A. (2013). Inference to the best explanation, coherence and other explanatory virtues. Synthese, 190(6), 975–995. Maher, P. (1993). Betting on theories. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. McGrew, T. (2003). Confirmation, heuristics, and explanatory reasoning. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 54(4), 553–567. McMullin, E. (1983). Values in science. In P. Asquith & T. Nickles (Eds.), Proceedings of the 1982 biennial meeting of the philosophy of science association (Vol. 2, pp. 3–28). East Lansing: Philosophy of Science Association. Minnameier, G. (2004). Peirce-suit of truth: Why inference to the best explanation and abduction ought not to be confused. Erkenntnis, 60(1), 75–105. Myrvold, W. (2003). A Bayesian account of the virtue of unification. Philosophy of Science, 70, 399–423. Myrvold, W. (2015). On the evidential import of unification. Unpublished MS. http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/11670/. Nyrup, R. (2015). How explanatory reasoning justifies pursuit: A Peircean view of IBE. Philosophy of Science, 82(5), 749–760. Okasha, S. (2000). Van Fraassen’s critique of inference to the best explanation. Studies in the History and Philosophy of Science, 31, 691–710. Peirce, C. S. (1934). The collected papers of Charles Sanders Peirce. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Popper, K. (1980). The logic of scientific discovery. London: Routledge. Poston, T. (2014). Reason & explanation: A defense of explanatory coherentism. New York: Palgrave-MacMillan. Psillos, S. (1999). Scientific realism: How science tracks the truth. London: Routledge. Psillos, S. (2002). Simply the best: A case for abduction. In A. C. Kakas & F. Sadri (Eds.), Computational logic: Logic programming and beyond (pp. 605–626). Berlin: Springer. Psillos, S. (2004). Inference to the best explanation and Bayesianism. In F. Stadler (Ed.), Induction and deduction in the sciences (pp. 83–91). Dordrecht: Kluwer. Psillos, S. (2007). The fine structure of inference to the best explanation. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 74(2), 441–448. Putnam, H. (1975). What is mathematical truth? In H. Putnam (Ed.), Mathematics, matter and method: Philosophical papers (pp. 60–78). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Quine, W. V. O., & Ullian, J. (1978). The web of belief. New York: Random House. Roche, W., & Sober, E. (2013). Explanatoriness is evidentially irrelevant, or inference to the best explanation meets Bayesian confirmation theory. Analysis, 73, 659–668. Rooney, P. (1992). On values in science: Is the epistemic/non-epistemic distinction useful? In D. Hull, M. Forbes, & K. Okruhlik (Eds.), Proceedings of the 1992 biennial meeting of the philosophy of science association (pp. 3–28). East Lansing, MI: Philosophy of Science Association. Rudner, R. (1953). The scientist qua scientist makes value judgments. Philosophy of Science, 20(1), 1–6. Salmon, W. (1971). Statistical explanation. In W. Salmon (Ed.), Statistical explanation and statistical relevance (pp. 29–87). Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press. Salmon, W. (1984). Scientific explanation and the causal structure of the world. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Salmon, W. (1989). Four decades of scientific explanation. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. Salmon, W. (1990). Rationality and objectivity in science or Tom Kuhn meets Tom Bayes. In C. Wade Savage (Ed.), Scientific theories (pp. 175–204). Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. Salmon, W. (2001a). Explanation and confirmation: A Bayesian critique of inference to the best explanation. In G. Hon & S. S. Rakover (Eds.), Explanation: Theoretical approaches and applications (pp. 61–91). Dordrecht: Kluwer. Salmon, W. (2001b). Reflections of a bashful Bayesian: A reply to Peter Lipton. In G. Hon & S. S. Rakover (Eds.), Explanation: Theoretical approaches and applications (pp. 121–136). Dordrecht: Kluwer. Schupbach, J. (2005). On a Bayesian analysis of the virtue of unification. Philosophy of Science, 72(4), 594–607. Sider, T. (2013). Against parthood. In K. Bennett & D. Zimmerman (Eds.), Oxford studies in metaphysics (Vol. 8, pp. 237–293). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Sober, E. (1990). Explanation in biology: Let’s Razor Ockham’s Razor. Royal Institute of Philosophy Supplement, 27, 73–93. Sober, E. (2001). Venetian sea levels, British bread prices, and the principle of the common cause. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 52(2), 331–346. Sober, E. (2002). Bayesianism–its scope and limits. In R. Swinburne (Ed.), Bayes’ theorem, Proceedings of the British Academy Press (Vol. 113, pp. 21–38). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Sober, E. (2015). Ockham’s Razors: A user’s manual. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Thagard, P. (1978). The best explanation: Criteria for theory choice. The Journal of Philosophy, 75(2), 76–92. Thagard, P. (1993). Computational philosophy of science. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. van Fraassen, B. C. (1980). The scientific image. Oxford: Oxford University Press. van Fraassen, B. C. (1989). Laws and symmetry. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Weisberg, J. (2009). Locating IBE in the Bayesian framework. Synthese, 167, 125–143. Whewell, W. (1968). In R. Butts (Ed.), William Whewell’s theory of scientific method. Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press. White, R. (2005). Explanation as a guide to induction. Philosophers’ Imprint, 5(2), 1–29. Williamson, J. (2010). In defence of objective Bayesianism. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Woodward, J. (2003). Making things happen: A theory of causal explanation. Oxford: Oxford University Press.