COVID-19 and output in Japan

Daisuke Fujii1, Taisuke Nakata1
1Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan

Tóm tắt

AbstractWe build a tractable SIR-macro-model with time-varying parameters and use it to explore various policy questions such as when to lift the state of emergency (SOE). An earlier departure from the SOE results in smaller output loss and more deaths in the short run. However, if the SOE is lifted too early, the number of new cases will surge and another SOE may need to be issued in the future, possibly resulting in both larger output loss and more deaths. That is, the tradeoff between output and infection that exists in the short run does not necessarily exist in the long run. Our model-based analysis—updated weekly since January 2021, frequently reported by media, and presented to policymakers on many occasions—has played a unique role in the policy response to the COVID-19 crisis in Japan.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Acemoglu, D., Chernozhukov, V., Werning, I., & Whinston, M.D. (2021). Optimal targeted lockdowns in a multi-group sir model. American Economic Review: Insights (forthcoming)

Alvarez, F., Argente, D., & Lippi, F. (2020). A simple planning problem for COVID-19 lockdown. Covid Economics, Vetted and Real-Time Papers, 14, 1–32.

Atkeson, A. (2020). On using sir models to model disease scenarios for COVID-19. Quarterly Review 1, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Chen, J., Choi, Y. J., & Sawada, Y. (2009). How is suicide different in Japan? Japan and the World Economy, 21(2), 140–150.

Chung, H. (2015). The effects of forward guidance in three macro models. Feds notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Chung, H., Nakata, T., & Paustian, M. (2018). Optimal monetary policy in a dsge model with attenuated forward guidance effects. Feds notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Clark, T. (2011). Real-time density forecasts from bayesian vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 29(3), 327–341.

Eichenbaum, M.S., Rebelo, S., & Trabandt, M. (2021). The macroeconomics of epidemics. The Review of Financial Studies (forthcoming)

Farboodi, M., Jarosch, G., & Shimer, R. (2020). Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic. Covid Economics, Vetted and Real-Time Papers, 9, 25–61.

Faust, J., & Wright, J. H. (2009). Comparing greenbook and reduced form forecasts using a large realtime dataset. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 27(4), 468–479.

Fernández-Villaverde, J., & Jones, C.I. (2020). Estimating and simulating a sird model of COVID-19 for many countries, states, and cities. NBER Working Paper Series 27128, National Bureau of Economic Research

Fujii, D., Maeda, Y., Mori, M., Nagasawa, K., Nakata, T., & Okamoto, W. (2021). The effects of the tokyo olympics on COVID-19 in Japan; ex-ante quantitative analyses. Working Paper

Fujii, D., & Nakata, T. (2021). A measure of monthly state-level output in Japan. Working Paper

Hall, R.E., Jones, C.I., & Klenow, P.J. (2020). Trading off consumption and COVID-19 deaths. Quarterly Review 1, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Inaba, H. (2020). Mathematical models in epidemiology and COVID-19 (in Japanese), online article at COVID-19 Yushikisha Kaigi

Kaplan, G., Moll, B., & Violante, G.L. (2020). The great lockdown and the big stimulus: Tracing the pandemic possibility frontier for the U.S. Working Paper

Kubota, S. (2021). The macroeconomics of COVID-19 exit strategy: The case of Japan. Japanese Economic Review (this issue)

Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare COVID-19 Advisory Board (2020). “National and prefectural epidemic curves”. (in Japanese)

Moll, B. (2020). Lockdowns in sir models. Lecture note

Munasinghe, L., Asai, Y., & Nishiura, H. (2019). Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: A social contact survey. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling, 16(6)

Watanabe, T., & Yabu, T. (2021). Japan’s voluntary lockdown. PLos ONE, 16(6), e0252468.