COVID-19 and housing prices: evidence from U.S. county-level data
Review of Regional Research - 2023
Tóm tắt
This paper investigates the effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on housing prices at the U.S. county level. The effects of COVID-19 cases on housing prices are formally investigated by using a two-way fixed effects panel regression, where county-specific factors, time-specific factors, and mobility measures of individuals are controlled for. The benchmark results show evidence for negative and significant effects of COVID-19 cases on housing prices, robust to the consideration of several permutation tests, where the negative effects are more evident in counties with higher poverty rates. Exclusion tests further suggest that U.S. counties in the state of California or the month of May 2020 are more responsible for the empirical results, although the results based on other counties and months are still in line with the benchmark results.
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Agarwal S, Amromin G, Ben-David I, Chomsisengphet S, Zhang Y (2019) Holdup by junior Claimholders: evidence from the mortgage market. J Financ Quant Anal 54(1):247–274
Allen-Coghlan M, McQuinn KM (2021) The potential impact of Covid-19 on the Irish housing sector. Int J Hous Mark Anal 14(4):636–651
Ambrus A, Field E, Gonzalez R (2020) Loss in the time of cholera: long-run impact of a disease epidemic on the urban landscape. Am Econ Rev 110(2):475–525
Amromin G, Dokko JK, Dynan KE et al (2020) Helping homeowners during the Covid-19 pandemic: lessons from the great recession. Chic Fed Lett 443. https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2020-443
Baker SR, Farrokhnia RA, Meyer S, Pagel M, Yannelis C (2020) How does household spending respond to an epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. Rev Asset Pricing Stud 10(4):834–862
Balemi N, Füss R, Weigand A (2021) COVID-19’s impact on real estate markets: review and outlook. Financ Mark Portfolio Manag: 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-021-00384-6
Barr M, Jackson H, Tahyar M (2020) The financial response to the COVID-19 pandemic https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3666461
Barrero JM, Bloom N, Davis SJ (2020) COVID-19 is also a reallocation shock. Working Paper 27137. National Bureau of Economic Research
Brueckner JK, Follain JR (1989) ARms and the demand for housing. Reg Sci Urban Econ 19(2):163–187
DeFusco AA, Mondragon J (2020) No job, no money, no refi: frictions to refinancing in a recession. J Financ. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12952
Del Giudice V, De Paola P, Del Giudice FP (2020) Covid-19 infects real estate markets: short and mid-run effects on housing prices in Campania region (Italy). Soc Sci 9(7):114
D’Lima W, Lopez LA, Pradhan A (2022) COVID-19 and housing market effects: evidence from US shutdown orders. Real Estate Econ 50(2):303–339
Eberly J, Krishnamurthy A (2014) Efficient credit policies in a housing debt crisis. Brookings Pap Econ Act 2014(2):73–136
Ehrlich G, Perry J (2015) Do large-scale refinancing programs reduce mortgage defaults? Evidence from a regression discontinuity design. In: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design (October 22, 2015)
Foote CL, Gerardi K, Willen PS (2008) Negative equity and foreclosure: theory and evidence. J Urban Econ 64(2):234–245
Francke M, Korevaar M (2021) Housing markets in a pandemic: evidence from historical outbreaks. J Urban Econ 123:103333
Genesove D, Mayer C (2001) Loss aversion and seller behavior: evidence from the housing market. Q J Econ 116(4):1233–1260
Green RK, Hendershott PH (2001) Home-ownership and unemployment in the US. Urban Stud 38(9):1509–1520
Harris JC (1989) The effect of real rates of interest on housing prices. J Real Estate Finan Econ 2(1):47–60
Haurin DR, Dietz RD, Weinberg BA (2002) The impact of neighborhood homeownership rates: A review of the theoretical and empirical literature. J Hous Res 13(2):119–151
Hu MR, Lee AD, Zou D (2021) COVID-19 and housing prices: Australian evidence with daily hedonic returns. Financ Res Lett 43:101960
Ling DC, Wang C, Zhou T (2020) A first look at the impact of COVID-19 on commercial real estate prices: Asset-level evidence. Rev Asset Pricing Stud 10(4):669–704
Liu S, Su Y (2021) The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the demand for density: evidence from the US housing market. Econ Lett 207:110010
Mayer CJ, Somerville CT (2000) Residential construction: Using the urban growth model to estimate housing supply. J Urban Econ 48(1):85–109
Qian X, Qiu S, Zhang G (2021) The impact of COVID-19 on housing price: evidence from China. Financ Res Lett: 101944. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.101944
Scharlemann TC, Shore SH (2016) The effect of negative equity on mortgage default: evidence from hamp’s principal reduction alternative. Rev Financ Stud 29(10):2850–2883
Schwab RM (1982) Inflation expectations and the demand for housing. Am Econ Rev 72(1):143–153
Sommer K, Sullivan P (2018) Implications of US tax policy for house prices, rents, and homeownership. Am Econ Rev 108(2):241–274
Stein JC (1995) Prices and trading volume in the housing market: a model with down-payment effects. Q J Econ 110(2):379–406
Tanrıvermiş H (2020) Possible impacts of COVID-19 outbreak on real estate sector and possible changes to adopt: A situation analysis and general assessment on Turkish perspective. J Urban Manag 9(3):263–269
Viscusi WK (1989) Prospective reference theory: Toward an explanation of the paradoxes. J Risk Uncertainty 2(3):235–263
Viscusi (1990) Sources of inconsistency in societal responses to health risks. Am Econ Rev 80(2):257–261
Wong G (2008) Has SARS infected the property market? Evidence from Hong Kong. J Urban Econ 63(1):74–95
Yilmazkuday H (2020) Stay-at-home works to fight against COVID-19: international evidence from Google mobility data. J Hum Behav Soc Environ. https://doi.org/10.1080/10911359.2020.1845903
Yilmazkuday (2021) Welfare costs of COVID-19: Evidence from US counties. J Regional Sci. https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12540