Bomb threats and reports of suspicious items in the Philippines: Spatial and temporal patterns
Tóm tắt
Previous research on bomb threats focused primarily on offender characteristics and ignored the spatial and temporal patterns of these events. This study argues that bomb threats and reports of suspicious items are non-random events in space and time. Thus, the study explores the spatial and temporal patterns of these phenomena in the Philippines from January 2010 to April 2014. The author retrieves the data on these events from unclassified online media outlets and coded them for subsequent analysis. Most threats are low-level threats, which offenders communicate through text messages and calls made to government agencies, school buildings, and commercial establishments. Of these targets, airports, city halls, and courthouses have the highest risk of repeat threats. Although these threats have frequently forced evacuation of target occupants, authorities find no actual explosives in all targets. On the other hand, alert observers usually report unattended bags and boxes as suspicious items found in commercial buildings, government buildings, transport buildings, and highways. Moreover, spatial and temporal analysis reveals that bomb threats and reports of suspicious items are concentrated in space and time. Most threats and reports occur in the country’s National Capital Region (NCR), during daytime on weekdays. At the NCR level, these events cluster at a triad of cities: Manila, Quezon, and Pasay. Current evidence supports the argument that these rare phenomena are non-random events in space and time.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Ashton, J., Brown, I., Senior, B. and Pease, K. (1998) Repeat victimization: Offender accounts. International Journal of Risk, Security and Crime Prevention 3(4): 269–279.
Ateneo de Manila University. (2014, February 12) Fr. Jett’s memo on the bomb threat. from http://www.admu.edu.ph/news/fr-jetts-memo-bomb-threat, accessed 29 April 2014.
Banlaoi, R. (2011, February 5) Makati city bus bombing: Which group could have done it? from http://rommelbanlaoi.wordpress.com/2011/02/05/makati-city-bus-bombing-which-group-could-have-done-it/, accessed 8 October 2014.
Bowman, D.H. (2004) Bomb threats taking toll. Education Week 24(1): 1–22.
Brantingham, P. and Brantingham, P. (2008) Crime pattern theory. In: R. Wortley and L. Mazerolle (eds.) Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis. Portland, Oregon: Willan Publishing.
Chainey, S. (2005) Methods and techniques for understanding crime hot spots. In: J. Eck, S. Chainey, J. Cameron, M. Leitner and R. Wilson (eds.) (2005), Mapping Crime: Understanding Hot Spots. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs, https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/209393.pdf, accessed 25 March 2012.
Chainey, S., Tompson, L. and Uhlig, S. (2008) The utility of hotspot mapping for predicting spatial patterns of crime. Security Journal 21(1): 4–28.
Clarke, R. (2008) Situational crime prevention. In: R. Wortley and L. Mazerolle (eds.) Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis. Portland, Oregon: Willan Publishing.
Cohen, L. and Felson, M. (1979) Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American Sociological Review 44(4): 588–608.
Cornish, D. and Clarke, R. (2003) Opportunities, precipitators, and criminal decisions: A reply to Wortley’s critique of situational crime prevention. In: M. Smith and D. Cornish (eds.) Crime Prevention Studies. Vol. 16. Monsey, NY: Criminal Justice Press.
Cornish, D. and Clarke, R. (2008) The rational choice perspective. In: R. Wortley and L. Mazerolle (eds.) Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis. Portland, Oregon: Willan Publishing.
Eck, J. (2005) Crime hot spots: What they are, why we have them, and how to map them. In: J. Eck, S. Chainey, J. Cameron, M. Leitner, and Wilson, R. (eds.) Mapping Crime: Understanding Hot Spots. Washington, DC: US Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs, https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/209393.pdf, accessed 25 March 2012.
Farrell, G. and Pease, K. (2008) Repeat victimization. In: R. Wortley and L. Mazerolle (eds.) Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis. Portland, Oregon: Willan Publishing.
Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2012) The Bomb Threat Challenge. Quantico, VA: U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation.
Felson, M. (1995) Those who discourage crime. In: J. Eck and D. Weisburd (eds.) Crime and Place: Crime Prevention Studies. Vol. 4. Monsey, NY: Criminal Justice Press.
Felson, M. (2008) Routine activity approach. In: R. Wortley and L. Mazerolle (eds.) Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis. Portland, Oregon: Willan Publishing.
Goldstein, H. (1979) Improving policing: A problem-oriented approach. Crime and Delinquency 25(2): 236–258.
Grove, L., Farrell, G., Farrington, D. and Johnson, S. (2012) Preventing Repeat Victimization: A Systematic Review. Stockholm: The Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention.
Häkkänen, H. (2006) Finnish bomb threats: Offence and offender characteristics. International Journal of Police Science & Management 8(1): 1–8.
Harries, K. (1999) Mapping crime: Principle and practice. Washington DC: Crime Mapping Research Center, National Institute of Justice, https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/178919.pdf, accessed 24 June 2013.
Higgins, S. (2004) Bomb and physical security planning. In: L. Fennelly (ed.) Handbook of Loss Prevention and Crime Prevention. 4th edn. Burlington, MA: Elsevier, Inc.
Human Rights Watch. (2007) Lives Destroyed: Attacks Against Civilians in the Philippines. New York: Human Rights Watch.
Kiesewetter, S. (1999) Bomb threat might cost mason schools $250 000. Enquirer, http://www.enquirer.com/editions/1999/11/18/loc_bomb_threat_might.html, accessed 18 April 2014.
LaFree, G. and Dugan, L. (2007) Introducing the global terrorism database. Terrorism and Political Violence 19(2): 181–204.
Levine, N. (2010) CrimeStat: A Spatial Statistics Program for the Analysis of Crime Incident Locations (v 3.3). Houston, TX: Ned Levine & Associates and the National Institute of Justice.
National Statistics Office. (2012) The 2010 census of population and housing reveals the Philippine population at 92.34 million, http://www.census.gov.ph/content/2010-census-population-and-housing-reveals-philippine-population-9234-million, accessed 29 April 2014.
Newman, G. (2011) Bomb Threats in Schools. Washington, DC: Office of Community Oriented Policing Services, US Department of Justice.
Pease, K. (1998) Repeat victimization: Taking stock. Crime Detection and Prevention Series Paper 90. London: Home Office.
Pease, K. (2008) Victims and victimization. In: S.G. Shoham, O. Beck and M. Kett (eds.) International Handbook of Penology and Criminal Justice. Boca Raton, FL: Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
Philippine National Police. (n.d.) Isang paalala: Bomba, http://philippinebombdatacenter.com/index.php/downloads/pskits/111-advisory-on-unattended-or-suspected-item-in-filipino, accessed 4 September 2014.
Quantum GIS Development Team. (2013) Quantum GIS geographic information system. Open Source Geospatial Foundation Project, http://qgis.osgeo.org, accessed 20 May 2013.
Ramos, B.J. (2014, February 18) Accenture confirms receiving bomb threat. Yahoo News, https://ph.news.yahoo.com/accenture-confirms-receiving-bomb-threat-074451424.html, accessed 29 April 2014.
Ratcliffe, J. (2004) The hotspot matrix: A framework for the spatio-temporal targeting of crime reduction. Police Practice and Research 5(1): 5–23.
Ratcliffe, J. and Rengert, G. (2008) Near-repeat patterns in Philadelphia shootings. Security Journal 21(1): 58–76.
Relatorres, Q.H., Barrera, D.J., Napao, J. and Susada, J. (2013) Bombings and violence on Mindanao: A fractal analysis. Recoletos Multidisciplinary Research Journal 1(2): 101–109.
Scott, M., Eck, J., Knutsson, J. and Goldstein, H. (2008) Problem-oriented policing and environmental criminology. In: R. Wortley and L. Mazerolle (eds.) Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis. Portland, Oregon: Willan Publishing.
Sherman, L., Gartin, P. and Buerger, M. (1989) Hot spots of predatory crime: Routine activities and the criminology of place. Criminology 27(1): 27–55.
Sherman, L. and Weisburd, D. (1995) General deterrent effects of police patrol in crime ‘hot spots’: A randomized, controlled trial. Justice Quarterly 12(4): 625–648.
Siljander, R.P. (2008) Introduction to Business and Industrial Security and Loss Control: A Primer for Business, Private Security, and Law Enforcement. Springfield, IL: Charles C. Thomas Publisher.
The World Bank. (2014a) Data: Telephone lines (per 100 people), http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IT.MLT.MAIN.P2, accessed 17 October 2014.
The World Bank. (2014b) Data: Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people), http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IT.CEL.SETS.P2, accessed 17 October 2014.
Townsley, M., Johnson, S. and Ratcliffe, J. (2008) Space time dynamics of insurgent activity in Iraq. Security Journal 21(3): 139–146.
Tunkel, R. (2002) Bomb threat assessments-focus on school violence. The FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin 71(10): 6–7.
US Department of Justice. (2001) Behavior and Characteristics of Bomb Related Offenders. Washington, DC: US Department of Justice, FBI.
Weisel, D.L. (2005) Analyzing repeat victimization. In: The Office of Community Oriented Policing Services (ed.) Problem-Oriented Guides for Police: Problem-Solving Tool Series. Washington, DC: US Department of Justice.
Wigle, J. (2010) Introducing the worldwide incidents tracking system (WITS). Perspectives on Terrorism 4(1): 3–23.
Williamson, D., McLafferty, S., Goldsmith, V., Mollenkopf, J. and McGuire, P. (1999) A better method to smooth crime incident data. ESRI ArcUser Magazine January-March, 1–5, https://www.esri.com/news/arcuser/0199/crimedata.html, accessed 10 April 2014.
Wortley, R. and Mazerolle, L. (2008) Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis. Portland, Oregon: Willan Publishing.
Zaitsu, W. (2010) Bomb threats and offender characteristics in Japan. Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling 7(1): 75–89.