Beliefs about overconfidence

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 70 - Trang 475-500 - 2010
Sandra Ludwig1, Julia Nafziger2
1Department of Economics, University of Munich, Munich, Germany
2School of Economics and Management, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, Denmark

Tóm tắt

This experiment elicits beliefs about other people’s overconfidence and abilities. We find that most people believe that others are unbiased, and only few think that others are overconfident. There is a remarkable heterogeneity between these groups. Those people who think others are underconfident or unbiased are overconfident themselves. Those who think others are overconfident are underconfident themselves. Despite this heterogeneity, people overestimate on average the abilities of others as they do their own ability. One driving force behind this result is the refusal to process information about oneself: not only does this lead to overestimation of one’s own ability, but by means of social projection also to overestimation of others’ abilities.

Tài liệu tham khảo

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