Avoiding Risk Dilemmas Using Backcasting

Precautionary avoidance of catastrophic risks based on the minimax'ing of potential loss can lead to dilemmas of the “doomed if we do, doomed if we don't” variety. Preaction in the form of sensible alternatives assessment can help eliminate these dilemmas. We suggest here that backcasting, a type of scenario analysis, provides a framework for effective, goal-oriented alternatives assessment.