Assisted migration poleward rather than upward in elevation minimizes frost risks in plantations

Climate Risk Management - Tập 34 - Trang 100380 - 2021
Zihaohan Sang1, Andreas Hamann1, Sally N. Aitken2
1Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, 751 General Services Building, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada
2University of British Columbia, Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, 3041, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada

Tài liệu tham khảo

Aitken, 2016, Time to get moving: assisted gene flow of forest trees, Evol Appl, 9, 271, 10.1111/eva.12293 Anderson, 2012, Phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution contribute to advancing flowering phenology in response to climate change, P Roy Soc B-Biol Sci, 279, 3843 Bailey, 2006, Temperature regulation of bud-burst phenology within and among years in a young Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) plantation in western Washington, USA, Tree Physiol, 26, 421, 10.1093/treephys/26.4.421 Beaubien, 2011, Spring Flowering Response to Climate Change between 1936 and 2006 in Alberta, Canada. Bioscience, 61, 514, 10.1525/bio.2011.61.7.6 Bigler, 2018, Climate-induced shifts in leaf unfolding and frost risk of European trees and shrubs, Sci Rep-Uk, 8, 9865, 10.1038/s41598-018-27893-1 British Columbia Government, 2019. Seed Planning Units (SPU) & Species Plans. Date accessed: 2019–09-05, URL: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/managing-our-forest-resources/tree-seed/seed-planning-use/seed-planning-units-species-plans. Campbell, 1986, Mapped genetic variation of Douglas-fir to guide seed transfer in southwest Oregon, Silvae Genetica, 35, 2 Chaste, 2019, Increases in heat-induced tree mortality could drive reductions of biomass resources in Canada's managed boreal forest, Landscape Ecol, 34, 403 Chen, 2015, Net aboveground biomass declines of four major forest types with forest ageing and climate change in western Canada’s boreal forests, Global Change Biol, 21, 3675, 10.1111/gcb.12994 Comeau, 2021, Climate-induced yellow-cedar decline on the island archipelago of Haida Gwaii, Ecosphere, 12, 10.1002/ecs2.3427 Cooke, 2012, The dynamic nature of bud dormancy in trees: environmental control and molecular mechanisms, Plant Cell Environ, 35, 1707, 10.1111/j.1365-3040.2012.02552.x Dantec, 2015, Escape of spring frost and disease through phenological variations in oak populations along elevation gradients, J Ecol, 103, 1044, 10.1111/1365-2745.12403 Downing, 2006 Ekberg, 1979, Photoperiodic reactions in conifer species, Ecography, 2, 255, 10.1111/j.1600-0587.1979.tb01297.x Etterson, 2020, Assisted migration across fixed seed zones detects adaptation lags in two major North American tree species, Ecol Appl, 30, 10.1002/eap.2092 Glerum, 1973, Annual trends in frost hardiness and electrical impedance for seven coniferous species, Canadian Journal of Plant Science, 53, 881, 10.4141/cjps73-170 Gray, 2011, Assisted migration to address climate change: recommendations for aspen reforestation in western Canada, Ecol Appl, 21, 1591, 10.1890/10-1054.1 Gray, 2013, Tracking suitable habitat for tree populations under climate change in western North America, Climatic Change, 117, 289, 10.1007/s10584-012-0548-8 Hotte, 2016, The principal-agent problem and climate change adaptation on public lands, Global Environ Chang, 36, 163, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.01.001 IPCC, 2018, 32 Knutti, 2013, Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there, Geophys Res Lett, 40, 1194, 10.1002/grl.50256 Li, 2010, Genetic adaptation of aspen (Populus tremuloides) populations to spring risk environments: a novel remote sensing approach, Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 40, 2082, 10.1139/X10-153 Liepe, 2016, Adaptation of lodgepole pine and interior spruce to climate: implications for reforestation in a warming world, Evol Appl, 9, 409, 10.1111/eva.12345 Loehle, 1998, Height growth rate tradeoffs determine northern and southern range limits for trees, J Biogeogr, 25, 735, 10.1046/j.1365-2699.1998.2540735.x Marris, 2009, Planting the forest of the future: while conservation biologists debate whether to move organisms threatened by the warming climate, one forester in British Columbia is already doing it, Nature, 459, 906, 10.1038/459906a McLane, 2012, Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) assisted migration potential: testing establishment north of the species range, Ecol Appl, 22, 142, 10.1890/11-0329.1 Meehl, 2000, Trends in extreme weather and climate events: issues related to modeling extremes in projections of future climate change, B Am Meteorol Soc, 81, 427, 10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0427:TIEWAC>2.3.CO;2 MFLNRO, 2018. Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operationsand Rural Development. Chief forester's standards for seed use. Accessed: 2019-08-03, URL: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/managing-our-forest-resources/tree-seed/legislation-standards/chief-forester-s-standards-for-seed-use. Michaelian, 2011, Massive mortality of aspen following severe drought along the southern edge of the Canadian boreal forest, Global Change Biol, 17, 2084, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02357.x Mimura, 2010, Local adaptation at the range peripheries of Sitka spruce, J Evolution Biol, 23, 249, 10.1111/j.1420-9101.2009.01910.x Montwe, 2018, Cold adaptation recorded in tree rings highlights risks associated with climate change and assisted migration, Nature Communications, 9, 1, 10.1038/s41467-018-04039-5 Morgenstern, 1996 Natural Resources Canada. 2020. Assited Migration. Date accessed: 2020–01-10, URL: https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/climate-change/impacts-adaptations/climate-change-impacts-forests/adaptation/assisted-migration/13121. Oleksyn, 1992, Growth and biomass partitioning of populations of European Pinus Sylvestris L. under simulated 50-degrees and 60-degrees-N daylengths:evidence for photoperiodic ecotypes, New Phytologist, 120, 561, 10.1111/j.1469-8137.1992.tb01806.x O’Neill, G.A., et al., 2008. Assisted migration to address climate change in British Columbia: recommendations for interim seed transfer standards. Forest Science Branch Technical Report 48, Ministry of Forests and Range, Victoria, BC. URL: https://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfd/pubs/Docs/Tr/Tr048.htm. O’Neill, G.A., et al., 2017. A proposed climate-based seed transfer system for British Columbia. Ministry of Forests, Lands, and NR Operations Techical Report 99. Government of British 2017 Columbia, Victoria, BC. http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfd/pubs/Docs/Tr/Tr099.htm. O'Neill, 2004, Area-based breeding zones to minimize maladaptation, Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 34, 695, 10.1139/x03-227 Pedlar, 2021, Critical seed transfer distances for selected tree species in eastern North America, J Ecol, 109, 2271, 10.1111/1365-2745.13605 Peters, 1985, The greenhouse effect and nature reserves, Bioscience, 35, 707, 10.2307/1310052 R Core Team, 2016 Rathcke, 1985, Phenological patterns of terrestrial plants, Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 16, 179, 10.1146/annurev.es.16.110185.001143 Schwartz, 2000, Changes in North American spring, Int J Climatol, 20, 929, 10.1002/1097-0088(20000630)20:8<929::AID-JOC557>3.0.CO;2-5 Sebastian-Azcona, 2019, Survival, growth and cold hardiness tradeoffs in white spruce populations: implications for assisted migration, Forest Ecol Manag, 433, 544, 10.1016/j.foreco.2018.10.046 Silvestro, 2019, From phenology to forest management: ecotypes selection can avoid early or late frosts, but not both, Forest Ecol Manag, 436, 21, 10.1016/j.foreco.2019.01.005 Thornton, P.E. et al., 2014. Daymet: Daily Surface Weather Data on a 1-km Grid for North America, Version 2. Oak Ridge National Lab, Oak Ridge, TN. Date accessed: 2019-06-12, URL: https://daymet.ornl.gov/. Vitasse, 2018, Increase in the risk of exposure of forest and fruit trees to spring frosts at higher elevations in Switzerland over the last four decades, Agr Forest Meteorol, 248, 60, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.09.005 Wang, 2016, Locally downscaled and spatially customizable climate data for historical and future periods for North America, Plos One, 11, e0156720, 10.1371/journal.pone.0156720 Zwiers, 2013, 339