Assessment of Climate Change Impact on the Gharesou River Basin Using SWAT Hydrological Model

Wiley - Tập 41 Số 6 - Trang 601-609 - 2013
Bagher Zahabiyoun1, Mohammad Reza Goodarzi2, Ali Reza Massah Bavani3, Hazi Mohammad Azamathulla4
1Department of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Tech, Narmak, Tehran, Iran
2School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science & Technology, Narmak, Tehran, Iran
3Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, College of Abouraihan, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran
4River Engineering and Urban Drainage Research Centre (REDAC), Universiti Sains Malaysia, Nibong Tebal, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia

Tóm tắt

AbstractThe evaluation of climate change and its side effects on the hydrological processes of the basin can increasingly help in dealing with the challenges that water resource managers and planners face in future courses. These side effects are investigated using the simulation of hydrological processes with the help of physical rainfall‐runoff model. Hydrological models provide a framework for examining the relationship between climate and water resources. This research aims at the investigation of the effect of climate change on the runoff of Gharesou, which is one of the main branches of the “Karkheh” River in Iran during the periods 2040–2069. To achieve this, the distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) – a model that is sensitive to the changes in land, water, and climate – has been used with the aim of evaluating the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Gharesou Basin. For this reason, first, the continuous distributed model of rainfall‐runoff SWAT for the period 1971–2000 has been calibrated and validated. Next, with the aim of evaluating the impact of climate change and global warming on the basin hydrology for the period 2040–2069, HadCM3‐AR4 global climate model data under the A2 scenario – from the SRES scenario set‐haves been downscaled. Eventually, the downscaled climate data haves been introduced in the SWAT model, and the future runoff changes have been studied. The results showed that the temperature increases in most of the months, and the precipitation rate exhibits a change in the range of ±30%. Moreover, the produced runoff in this period changes from −90 to 120% during different months.

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Wiley

Tập 41 Số 6

601-609

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