Assessing the consequences of quarantines during a pandemic
Tóm tắt
This paper analyzes the epidemiological and economic effects of quarantines. We use a basic epidemiological model, a SEIR-model, that is calibrated to roughly resemble the COVID-19 pandemic, and we assume that individuals that become infected or are isolated on average lose a share of their productivity. An early quarantine postpones but does not alter the course of the pandemic at a cost that increases in the duration and the extent of the quarantine. For quarantines at later stages of the pandemic there is a trade-off between lowering the peak level of infectious people on the one hand and minimizing fatalities and economic losses on the other hand. A longer quarantine dampens the peak level of infectious people and also reduces the total number of infected persons but increases economic losses. Both the peak level of infectious individuals and the total share of the population that will have been infected are U-shaped in relation to the share of the population in quarantine, while economic costs increase in this share. In particular, a quarantine covering a moderate share of the population leads to a lower peak, fewer deaths and lower economic costs, but it implies that the peak of the pandemic occurs earlier.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Alvarez, F.E., Argente, D., and Lippi, F.: A simple planning problem for COVID-19 lockdown. NBER Working Paper 26981, National Bureau of Economic Research (2020)
Anderson, R.M., Heesterbeek, H., Klinkenberg, D., Hollingsworth, T.D.: How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? The Lancet 395(10228), 931–934 (2020)
Atkeson, A.: What will be the economic impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough estimates of disease scenarios. NBER Working Paper 26867, National Bureau of Economic Research (2020)
Baldwin, R.E., and Weder di Mauro, B., (eds.): Economics in the time of COVID-19. CEPR Press (2020a)
Baldwin, R. E. and Weder di Mauro, B., (eds.): Mitigating the COVID economic crisis: act fast and do whatever it takes. CEPR Press (2020b)
Bendavid, E., Mulaney, B., Sood, N., Shah, S., Ling, E., Bromley-Dulfano, R., Lai, C., Weissberg, Z., Saavedra-Walker, R., Tedrow, J., Tversky, D., Bogan, A., Kupiec, T., Eichner, D., Gupta, R., Ioannidis, J., Bhattacharya, J.: Covid-19 antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California. medRxiv preprint (2020). https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463
Buss, L.F., Prete, C.A., Jr., Abrahim, C.M.M., Mendrone, A., Jr., Salomon, T., de Almeida-Neto, C., França, R.F.O., Belotti, M.C., Carvalho, M.P.S.S., Costa, A.G., Crispim, M.A.E., Ferreira, S.C., Fraiji, N.A., Gurzenda, S., Whittaker, C., Kamaura, L.T., Takecian, P.L., da Silva Peixoto, P., Oikawa, M.K., Nishiya, A.S., Rocha, V., Salles, N.A., Aruska de Souza Santos, A., da Silva, M.A., Custer, B., Parag, K.V., Barral-Netto, M., Kraemer, M.U.G., Pereira, R.H.M., Pybus, O.G., Busch, M.P., Castro, M.C., Dye, C., Nascimento, V.H., Faria, N.R., Sabino, E.C.: Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic. Science 371, 288–292 (2021)
Casares, M., Khan, H.: A dynamic model of COVID-19: contagion and implications of isolation enforcement. Carleton Economic Papers 20–02. Carleton University, Department of Economics (2020)
Dewatripont, M., Goldman, M., Muraille, E., and Platteau, J.-P.: Rapid identification of workers immune to COVID-19 and virus-free: a priority to restart the economy, discussion paper. Université Libre de Bruxelles (2020)
Gonzalez-Eiras, M., and Niepelt, D.: On the optimal ‘lockdown’ during an epidemic. CESifo Working Paper Series 8240, CESifo (2020)
Hall, R.E., Jones, C.I., and Klenow, P.J.: Trading off consumption and COVID-19 deaths. NBER Working Paper 27340, National Bureau of Economic Research (2020)
He, X., Lau, E.H.Y., Wu, P., Deng, X., Wang, J., Hao, X., Lau, Y.C., Wong, J.Y., Guan, Y., Tan, X., Mo, X., Chen, Y., Liao, B., Chen, W., Hu, F., Zhang, Q., Zhong, M., Wu, Y., Zhao, L., Zhang, F., Cowling, B.J., Li, F., Leung, G.M.: Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19. Nat. Med. 26, 672–675 (2020)
Jones, C.J., Philippon, T., and Venkateswaran, V.: Optimal mitigation policies in a pandemic: social distancing and working from home. NBER Working Paper 26984, National Bureau of Economic Research (2020)
Kermack, W.O., McKendrick, A.G.: A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proc. R. Soc. A. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci. 115(772), 700–721 (1927)
Piguillem, F., and Shi, L.: Optimal COVID-19 quarantine and testing policies. EIEF Working Papers Series 2004, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF) (2020)
Zou, Y., Pan, S., Zhao, P., Han, L., Wang, X., Hemerik, L., Knops, J., van der Werf, W.: Outbreak analysis with a logistic growth model shows COVID-19 suppression dynamics in China. PLoS One 15(6), e0235247 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0235247