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Đánh giá các phân vùng dễ tổn thương về tài nguyên dưới xu hướng thay đổi lượng mưa ở Uttarakhand, khu vực Trung Himalaya
Tóm tắt
Khu vực Trung Himalaya dễ bị tổn thương trước các tác động tiêu cực của biến đổi khí hậu và có điều kiện khí hậu vùng riêng biệt. Sinh kế của các cộng đồng sống trên núi trải dài khắp Himalaya đang gặp rủi ro do các hậu quả của các mô hình lượng mưa biến đổi. Có rất ít nghiên cứu thực nghiệm về biến đổi lượng mưa do thiếu các trạm khí tượng thủy văn ở các vùng cao. Nghiên cứu sử dụng một phương pháp mới kết hợp giữa biến đổi lượng mưa với độ nhạy của tài nguyên dọc theo ba khu vực của Trung Himalaya: Himadri, Himachal và Shivaliks, và trên bốn lưu vực sông chính: Yamuna, Upper Ganga, Ghaghar và Ramganga. Độ lớn của các xu hướng lượng mưa đáng kể được ước lượng thông qua phân tích chuỗi thời gian tại mức độ tin cậy 95%. Để đánh giá độ nhạy của các tài nguyên thiên nhiên (rừng, nước và đất) và tài nguyên con người, mười bốn chỉ số cụ thể cho vùng núi đã được xác định, giúp thu thập chỉ số tài nguyên thông qua tiêu chuẩn hóa dữ liệu và phân tích thành phần chính. Độ dốc của Sen và chỉ số tài nguyên đã được vẽ trên hệ tọa độ vô hướng 2D để tạo ra các phân vùng lượng mưa-tài nguyên với vùng bao phủ hiệu quả của chúng: Lượng mưa cao và tài nguyên khan hiếm (35.92%); Lượng mưa thấp và tài nguyên phong phú (30.10%); Lượng mưa thấp và tài nguyên khan hiếm (22.33%); và Lượng mưa cao và tài nguyên phong phú (11.65%). Điều này đã giúp xây dựng các chiến lược thích ứng theo từng phân vùng dưới sự biến đổi khu vực của lượng mưa. Phương pháp và kết quả nghiên cứu sẽ hỗ trợ các chuyên gia về nước, quản lý tài nguyên và các nhà hoạch định chính sách trong việc tăng cường khả năng thích ứng và cải thiện khả năng phục hồi của các cộng đồng dễ tổn thương trên khắp Himalaya.
Từ khóa
#Biến đổi khí hậu #khu vực Trung Himalaya #lượng mưa #tài nguyên thiên nhiên #phân tích chuỗi thời gian #độ nhạy tài nguyên.Tài liệu tham khảo
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