Đánh giá ngưỡng mưa quan trọng để kích thích sạt lở đất bằng cách tạo ra thông tin bổ sung từ cơ sở dữ liệu giảm thiểu: một cách tiếp cận với các ví dụ từ dãy núi Betic (Tây Ban Nha)

AEMET (2010) Resumen anual climatológico 2010. Agencia Estatal de Meteorología. URL: http://www.aemet.es/documentos/es/serviciosclimaticos/vigilancia_clima/resumenes_climat/anuales/res_anual_clim_2010.pdf (Last accessed: 13/11/2014) AEMET (2014) Agencia Estatal de Meteorología. URL: http://www.aemet.es/es/portada (Last accessed: 13/11/2014) Agencia de Medio Ambiente y Agua (2014) Red de información Ambiental de Andalucía (REDIAM). Consejería de Medio Ambiente y Ordenación del Territorio, Junta de Andalucía Aleotti P (2004) A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures. Eng Geol 73(3–4):247–265. doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.01.007 Aleotti P, Chowdhury R (1999) Landslide hazard assessment: summary review and new perspectives. Bull Eng Geol Environ 58(1):21–44 Aleotti P, Canuti P, Falorni G, Fanti R, Grimaldi G, Guida D, Lombardi G, Pappalardo G, Polloni G (2003) Assessment of potential debris flow inundation areas on a small alluvial fan in southern Italy. In: Proceedings of the international conference on fast movements—prediction and prevention, Sorrento, May, pp 11–13 Ayala FJ, Elizaga E, González de Vallejo LI (1987) Impacto económico y social de los riesgos geológicos en España. In: Serie Geológica Ambiental. IGME, Madrid, p 134 Barnett V (1975) Probability plotting methods and order statistics. J R Stat Soc: Ser C (Appl Stat) 24(1):95–108. doi:10.2307/2346708 Bonnard C, Noverraz F (2001) Influence of climate change on large landslides: assessment of long term movements and trends. In: Proceedings of the international conference on landslides, Gluckauf, Essen, Davos, pp 121–138 Borga M, Dalla Fontana G, Da Ros D, Marchi L (1998) Shallow landslide hazard assessment using a physically based model and digital elevation data. Environ Geol 35(2–3):81–88. doi:10.1007/s002540050295 Borga M, Dalla Fontana G, Cazorzi F (2002) Analysis of topographic and climatic control on rainfall-triggered shallow landsliding using a quasi-dynamic wetness index. J Hydrol 268(1–4):56–71. doi:10.1016/s0022-1694(02)00118-x Brunetti MT, Luino F, Vennari C, Peruccacci S, Biddoccu M, Valigi D, Luciani S, Cirio CG, Rossi M, Nigrelli G, Ardizzone F, Palma M, Guzzetti F (2013) Rainfall thresholds for possible occurrence of shallow landslides and debris flows in Italy. In: Schneuwly-Bollschweiler M, Stoffel M, Rudolf-Miklau F (eds) Dating torrential processes on fans and cones: methods and their application for hazard and risk assessment. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 327–339. doi:10.1007/978-94-007-4336-6_22 Campbell RH (1975) Soil slips, debris flows, and rainstorms in the Santa Monica Mountains and vicinity, Southern California survey professional paper. US Geological 851:51 Cannon S, Gartner J (2005) Wildfire-related debris flow from a hazards perspective. Debris-flow hazards and related phenomena, vol Sec. 15. Springer, Berlin, pp 363–385. doi:10.1007/3-540-27129-5_15 Cardinali M, Reichenbach P, Guzzetti F, Ardizzone F, Antonini G, Galli M, Cacciano M, Castellani M, Salvati P (2002) A geomorphological approach to the estimation of landslide hazards and risks in Umbria, Central Italy. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 2(1–2):57–72. doi:10.5194/nhess-2-57-2002 Casale R, Fantecchi R, Flageolet JC (1994) Temporal occurrence and forecasting of landslides in the European Community. In: Casale R, Fantecchi R, Flageolet JC (eds) Final report. Programme Epoch (Ct. 90 0025). European Community, p 957 Castillo A, Martín-Rosales W, Osorio R (1996) Erosión hídrica en la cuenca del río Guadalfeo (Granada); estudio comparativo de las metodologías de la U.S.L.E y Fournier. Geogaceta 19:142–145 Chacón J (2003) Geologic and Geomorphologic Risks: Identification, Analysis and Consequence prevention of Landslides. Áreas: revista Internacional de Ciencias Sociales (Ejemplar dedicado a: Los procesos de riesgo con origen natural: una constante en la relación entre hombre y medio). Ediciones de la Universidad de Murcia. Murcia 23:33–64 Chacón J, Irigaray C, Fernandez T, El Hamdouni R (2006a) Engineering geology maps: landslides and geographical information systems. Bull Eng Geol Environ 65(4):341–411. doi:10.1007/s10064-006-0064-z Chacón J, Irigaray Fernández C, Fernández T, El Hamdouni R (2006b) Landslides in the main urban areas of the Granada province, Andalucia, Spain. IAEG 2006. Nottingham Chacón J, Irigaray C, El Hamdouni R, Jiménez-Perálvarez J (2010) Diachroneity of landslides. In: Williams AL, Pinches GM, Chin CY, McMorran TJ and Massey CI (eds.) Geologically Active. Taylor & Francis Group. CRC Press-Balkema, vol. 1, p. 999-1006 Chacón J, Irigaray C, El Hamdouni R, Valverde-Palacios I, Valverde-Espinosa I, Calvo F, Jiménez-Perálvarez J, Chacon E, Fernández P, Garrido J, Lamas F (2012) Engineering and Environmental Geology of Granada and its Metropolitan Area (Spain). Environ Eng Geosci 18(3):217–260. doi:10.2113/gseegeosci.18.3.217 Community European (2007) Directive 2007/2/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 March 2007 establishing an Infrastructure for Spatial Information in the European Community (INSPIRE). Off J Eur Union L108:14 Corominas J (2000) Landslides and climate. Keynote lecture. In: Bromhead E, Dixon N, Ibsen ML, Cardiff AA (eds) Proceedings 8th international symposium on landslides. Balkema, vol 4, pp 1–33 Corominas J, Moya J (2008) A review of assessing landslide frequency for hazard zoning purposes. Eng Geol 102(3–4):193–213. doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2008.03.018 Crosta GB, Frattini P (2001) Rainfall thresholds for triggering soil slips and debris flow. In: Mugnai A, Guzzetti F, Roth G (eds) Proceedings 2nd EGS Plinius conference on Mediterranean Storms, Siena, pp 463–487 Crosta G, Frattini P (2003) Distributed modelling of shallow landslides triggered by intense rainfall. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 3(1–2):81–93. doi:10.5194/nhess-3-81-2003 Crozier M (1986) Landslides: causes, consequences and environment. Croom Helm, London, p 252 Crozier MJ, Eyles RJ (1980) Assessing the probability of rapid mass movement. In Proceedings of 3rd Australia-New Zealand Conference on Geomechanics, Wellington, N.Z.: Institution of Professional Engineers New Zealand, 1980: 2-47-2-51. Proceedings of Technical Groups. Vol. 6, p. 247-251 CumFreq (2014) CumFreq: Cumulative frequency analysis with probability distribution fitting. URL: http://www.waterlog.info/cumfreq.htm [Last accessed: 05/09/2014] Cunnane C (1973) A particular comparison of annual maxima and partial duration series methods of flood frequency prediction. J Hydrol 18(3–4):257–271. doi:10.1016/0022-1694(73)90051-6 D’Odorico P, Fagherazzi S (2003) A probabilistic model of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides in hollows: A long-term analysis. Water Resources Research 39 (9): ESG61-ESG614 De Vita P, Napolitano E, Godt J, Baum R (2013) Deterministic estimation of hydrological thresholds for shallow landslide initiation and slope stability models: case study from the Somma-Vesuvius area of southern Italy. Landslides 10(6):713–728. doi:10.1007/s10346-012-0348-2 Dikau R, Cavallin A, Jäger S (1996) Databases and GIS for landslide research in Europe. Geomorphology 15(3):227–239 Diputación de Granada and the Instituto Geológico Minero de España (2007) Atlas de Riesgos Naturales en la Provincia de Ganada. Ferrer M (dir). ISBN/ISSN: 978-84-7807-438-9 Duggal KN, Soni JP (2005) Statistics Applied to Hydrology. Elements of water resources engineering. New Age International Publishers. New Delhi, p. 47. ISBN/ISSN: 81-224-0507-9 Dykes AP, Gunn J, Convery KJ (2008) Landslides in blanket peat on Cuilcagh Mountain, northwest Ireland. Geomorphology 102(3–4):325–340. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2008.04.003 El Hamdouni R (2001) Estudio de Movimientos de Ladera en la Cuenca del Río Ízbor mediante un SIG: Contribución al Conocimiento de la Relación entre Tectónica Activa e Inestabilidad de Vertientes. Unpublished PhD Thesis. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Granada, Spain, p 429 El Hamdouni R, Irigaray C, Fernández T, Chacón J, Keller EA (2008) Assessment of relative active tectonics, southwest border of the Sierra Nevada (southern Spain). Geomorphology 96(1–2):150–173. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.08.004 Endo (1969) Probable distribution of the amount of rainfall causing landslides, Annual Report 1968. Hokkaico Branch, For. Exp. Stn., Sapporo. Japan, pp 122–136 ESRI (2012) ArGIS Desktop 10.1. Environmental System Research Institute, Inc (ESRI) Fell R, Corominas J, Bonnard C, Cascini L, Leroi E, Savage WZ (2008) Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning for land use planning. Eng Geol 102(3–4):85–98. doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2008.03.022 Fernández T, Irigaray C, El Hamdouni R, Chacón J (2003) Methodology for landslide susceptibility mapping by means of a GIS. Application to the Contraviesa Area (Granada, Spain). Nat Hazards 30(3):297–308. doi:10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000007092.51910.3f Fernández P, Irigaray C, Jimenez J, El Hamdouni R, Crosetto M, Monserrat O, Chacon J (2009) First delimitation of areas affected by ground deformations in the Guadalfeo River Valley and Granada metropolitan area (Spain) using the DInSAR technique. Eng Geol 105(1–2):84–101. doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2008.12.005 Fernández T, Pérez J, Delgado J, Cardenal F, Irigaray C, Chacón J (2011) Evolution of a diachronic landslide by comparison between different DEMs obtained from Digital Photogrammetry Techniques in Las Alpujarras (Granada, Southern Spain). In: Conference of geoinformation for disaster management (GI4DM), Antalya Frattini P, Crosta GB, Fusi N, Dal Negro P (2004) Shallow landslides in pyroclastic soils: A distributed modelling approach for hazard assessment. Eng Geol 73(3–4):277–295. doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.01.009 Glade T, Crozier M, Smith P (2000) Applying probability determination to refine landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds using an empirical “Antecedent Daily Rainfall Model”. Pure appl Geophys 157(6–8):1059–1079. doi:10.1007/s000240050017 Gómez-Pugnaire MT, Galindo-Zaldívar J, Rubatto D, González-Lodeiro F, López Sánchez-Vizcaíno V, Jabaloy A (2004) A reinterpretation of the Nevado-Filábride and Alpujárride Complexes (Betic Cordillera): Field, petrography and U-Pb ages from orthogneisses (western Sierra Nevada, S Spain). Schweiz Mineral Petrogr Mitt 84(3):303–322. doi:10.1016/j.lithos.2010.07.002 Gumbel EJ (1968) Statistics of extremes. United States of America, Columbia University Press, New York, pp 28–34 Guzzetti F, Carrara A, Cardinali M, Reichenbach P (1999) Landslide hazard evaluation: a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy. Geomorphology 31(1–4):181–216. doi:10.1016/S0169-555X(99)00078-1 Guzzetti F, Cardinali M, Reichenbach P, Cipolla F, Sebastiani C, Galli M, Salvati P (2004) Landslides triggered by the 23 November 2000 rainfall event in the Imperia Province, Western Liguria, Italy. Eng Geol 73(3–4):229–245. doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.01.006 Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Stark CP (2007) Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe. Meteorol Atmos Phys 98(3–4):239–267. doi:10.1007/s00703-007-0262-7 Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Stark C (2008) The rainfall intensity–duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update. Landslides 5(1):3–17. doi:10.1007/s10346-007-0112-1 Helsel DR, Hirsch RM (2002) Chapter A3 statistical methods in water resources. Hydrologic analysis and interpretation. Tech Water-Resour Investig US Geol Surv 4:1–8 Hromadka TV, Phillips M (2010) Use of rainfall statistical return periods to determine threshold for mass wasting events. Environ Eng Geosci 16(4):343–356. doi:10.2113/gseegeosci.16.4.343 Ibsen M-L, Brunsden D (1996) The nature, use and problems of historical archives for the temporal occurrence of landslides, with specific reference to the south coast of Britain, Ventnor. Isle of Wight. Geomorphology 15(3–4):241–258. doi:10.1016/0169-555X(95)00073-E IDEAL (2014) Historia. URL: http://canales.ideal.es/acercaIdeal/historia.html (Last accessed: 15/9/2014) IGN (2008–2012) Instituto Geográfico Nacional de España. Plan Nacional de Ortofotografía Aérea (PNOA). Ministerio de Fomento. Dirección General del Instituto Geográfico Nacional. URL: http://www.ign.es/PNOA/presentacion.html (Last accessed: 28/02/2013) Innes JL (1983) Debris flows. Prog Phys Geog 7:469–501 Irigaray C, Palenzuela JA (2013) Análisis de la actividad de movimientos mediante láser escáner terrestre en el suroeste de la Cordillera Bética (España). Revista de Geología Aplicada a la Ingeniería y al Ambiente 31:53–67 Irigaray C, Fernández T, El Hamdouni R, Chacón J (1999) Verification of landslide susceptibility mapping: a case study. Technical report. Earth Surf Proc Land 24:537–544 Irigaray C, Lamas F, El Hamdouni R, Fernández T, Chacón J (2000) The importance of the precipitation and the susceptibility of the slopes for the triggering of landslides along the roads. Nat Hazards 21(1):65–81. doi:10.1023/a:1008126113789 Irigaray C, Fernandez T, El Hamdouni R, Chacon J (2007) Evaluation and validation of landslide-susceptibility maps obtained by a GIS matrix method: examples from the Betic Cordillera (southern Spain). Nat Hazards 41(1):61–79. doi:10.1007/s11069-006-9027-8 Iverson RM (2000) Landslide triggering by rain infiltration. Water Resour Res 36(7):1897–1910. doi:10.1029/2000wr900090 Jenks GF (1967) The data model concept in statistical mapping. Int Yearbook Cartogr 7:186–190 Jibson RW (1989) Debris flows in southern Puerto Rico. Geol Soc Am Spe Pap 236:29–56. doi:10.1130/SPE236-p29 Jiménez J, Irigaray C, El Hamdouni R, Fernandez T, Chacon J (2005) Rasgos geomorfológicos y movimientos de ladera en la Cuenca Alta del río Guadalfeo, sector Cádiar-Órgiva (Granada). Actas del VI Simposio Nacional de Taludes y Laderas Inestables 2:891–902 Jiménez-Perálvarez JD (2012) Movimientos de ladera en la vertiente meridional de sierra nevada (Granada, España): identificación, análisis y cartografía de susceptibilidad y peligrosidad mediante SIG. Unpublished PhD Thesis. Department of Civil Engineering. University of Granada, Spain, p 210. ISBN: 9788490282892 Jiménez-Perálvarez JD, Irigaray C, El Hamdouni R, Chacón J (2009) Building models for automatic landslide-susceptibility analysis, mapping and validation in ArcGIS. Nat Hazards 50(3):571–590. doi:10.1007/s11069-008-9305-8 Jiménez-Perálvarez JD, Irigaray C, El Hamdouni R, Chacón J (2011) Landslide-susceptibility mapping in a semi-arid mountain environment: an example from the southern slopes of Sierra Nevada (Granada, Spain). Bull Eng Geol Environ 70(2):265–277 Keller EA, Sanz de Galdeano C, Chacón J (1996) Tectonic geomorphology and earthquake hazard of Sierra Nevada, Southern Spain. In: Chacón J, Rosua JL (eds) 1ª Conferencia Internacional Sierra Nevada. Granada, pp 201–218 Kim SK, Hong WP, Kim YK (1991) Prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides in Korea. In: Bell C (ed) 6th international symposium on landslides, vol 2. A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam Köeppen (1936) Das geographische system der klimate. In: Köeppen W, Geiger R (eds) Handbuch der klimatologie, 1C. Gebrüder borntraeger, Berlin, p 44 Lacasse S, Nadim F (2009) Landslide risk assessment and mitigation strategy. In: Sassa K, Canuti P (eds) Landslides—disaster risk reduction. Springer, Berlin, Sec. 3, p 31–61. ISBN/ISSN: 978-3-540-69966-8. doi:10.1007/978-3-540-69970-5_3 Li C, Ma T, Zhu X, Li W (2011) The power-law relationship between landslide occurrence and rainfall level. Geomorphology 130(3–4):221–229. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.03.018 Lumb P (1975) Slope failure in Hong Kong. Q J Eng Geol 8:31–65 Ma T, Li C, Lu Z, Wang B (2014) An effective antecedent precipitation model derived from the power-law relationship between landslide occurrence and rainfall level. Geomorphology 216:187–192. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.03.033 Makkonen L, Pajari M (2014) Defining sample quantiles by the true rank probability. J Prob Stat. Article ID 326579, p 6. doi:10.1155/2014/326579 Mkhandi S, Opere A, Willems P (2005) Comparison between annual maximum and peaks over threshold models for flood frequency prediction. In International conference of UNESCO Flanders FIT FRIEND/Nile project–towards a better cooperation, Sharm-El-Sheikh, Egypt, CD-ROM proceedings Mohssen M (2009) Partial duration series in the annual domain. 18th World IMACS/MODSIM Congress. Cairns, Australia, pp 2694–2700 Oosterbaan RJ (1988) Frequency predictions and their binomial confidence limits. International Commision on Irrigation and Drainage, Special Technical Session, Economic Aspects of Flood Control and non Structural Measures, Dubrovnik Palenzuela JA, Irigaray C, Jiménez-Perálvarez JD, Chacón J (2013) Application of terrestrial laser scanner to the assessment of the evolution of diachronic landslides. In: Margottini C, Canuti P, Sassa K (eds) Landslide science and practice. Springer, Berlin, Sec. 68, pp 517–523. doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-31445-2_68 Palenzuela JA, Marsella M, Nardinocchi C, Pérez JL, Fernández T, Chacón J, Irigaray C (2014) Landslide detection and inventory by integrating LiDAR data in a GIS environment. Landslides. doi:10.1007/s10346-014-0534-5 Panizza M (1996) 3 Geomorphological hazard. In: Mario P (eds) Developments in earth surface processes. Elsevier, vol 4, pp 75–76. ISBN/ISSN: 0928-2025. doi: 10.1016/S0928-2025(96)80020-4 Papa MN, Medina V, Ciervo F, Bateman A (2013) Derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides as a tool for debris flow early warning systems. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17(10):4095–4107. doi:10.5194/hess-17-4095-2013 Petley D (2012) Global patterns of loss of life from landslides. Geology. The Geological Society of America, vol 40. 10, pp 927–930. ISBN/ISSN: 0091-7613. doi: 10.1130/G33217.1 Red de Información Ambiental de Andalucía (REDIAM) (2016) Precipitación media anual en Andalucía: periodo 1971–2000. Consejería de Medio Ambiente, Junta de Andalucía. URL: http://www.juntadeandalucia.es/medioambiente/site/rediam Reichenbach P, Cardinali M, De Vita P, Guzzetti F (1998) Regional hydrological thresholds for landslides and floods in the Tiber River Basin (central Italy). Environ Geol 35(2–3):146–159. doi:10.1007/s002540050301 Ruiz Sinoga JD, Martinez Murillo JF (2009) Effects of soil surface components on soil hydrological behaviour in a dry Mediterranean environment (Southern Spain). Geomorphology 108(3–4):234–245. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2009.01.012 Schuster RL (1978) Introduction. In: Schuster RL, Krizek RJ (eds) Landslides—analysis and control, Chapter 1, pp 1–10 Schutt B (2005) Late quaternary environmental change on the Iberian Peninsula. Erde 136(1):3 Spizzichino D, Margottini C, Trigila A, Iadanza C, Linser S (2010) Landslides. In: Ludlow D (ed) Mapping the impacts of natural hazards and technological accidents in Europe—An overview of the last decade, chapter 9, pp 81–93. EEA Technical report No 13/2010, 144p. ISBN 978-92-9213-168-5. ISSN 1725-2237. doi: 10.2800/62638 Spizzichino D, Margottini C, Trigila A, Iadanza C (2013) Landslide impacts in Europe: weaknesses and strengths of databases available at European and National Scale. In: Margottini C, Canuti P, Sassa K (eds) Landslide science and practice vol 1: landslide inventory and susceptibility and hazard zoning. Springer, Berlin, pp 73–80. ISBN 978-3-642-31324-0. doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-31325-7_9 Suárez RR, Regueiro M (1997) Guía ciudadana de los Riesgos Geológicos. I.C.O.G, Madrid Terlien MTJ (1996) Modelling spatial and temporal variations in rainfall-triggered landslides. PhD thesis. ITC. Enschede. Holland, vol 32, p 251. ISBN/ISSN: 9061641152 Terlien MTJ (1998) The determination of statistical and deterministic hydrological landslide-triggering thresholds. Environ Geol 35(2–3):124–130. doi:10.1007/s002540050299 Thornes JB, Alcántara-Ayala I (1998) Modelling mass failure in a Mediterranean mountain environment: climatic, geological, topographical and erosional controls. Geomorphology 24(1):87–100. doi:10.1016/S0169-555X(97)00103-7 Trujillo F (1995) III. Clima e información meteorológica PLAN INFOCA. Un plan de acción al servicio del monte mediterráneo andaluz. Consejería de Medio Ambiente. Junta de Andalucía. ISBN: 84-95785-88-984-95785-88-9 UNESCO (1973–1979) Annual summaries of information on natural disasters, 1971–1975. UNESCO, Paris Van Den Eeckhaut M, Hervás J (2012) State of the art of national landslide databases in Europe and their potential for assessing landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk. Geomorphology 139–140:545–558. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.12.006 Varnes DJ (1984) Landslide Hazard Zonation: a Review of Principles and Practice. Commision on Landslides of IAEG, UNESCO. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. Paris. Nat Hazards 3:61 Vennari C, Gariano SL, Antronico L, Brunetti MT, Iovine G, Peruccacci S, Terranova O, Guzzetti F (2014) Rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence in Calabria, southern Italy. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 14(2):317–330. doi:10.5194/nhess-14-317-2014 Weibull W (1939) A statistical theory of the strength of materials. Ing Velenskaps Akad Handl 151:1–45 White ID, Mottershead DN, Harrison JJ (1996) Environmental systems, 2nd edn. Chapman and Hall, London, p 616 Wieczorek G, Glade T (2005) Climatic factors influencing occurrence of debris flows. Debris-flow hazards and related phenomena. Springer, Berlin, Sec. 14, pp 325–362. ISBN/ISSN: 978-3-540-20726-9. doi:10.1007/3-540-27129-5_14 Wilson RC (1989) Rainstorms, pore pressures, and debris flows: a theoretical framework. In: Morton DM, Salder PM (eds) Landslides in a semi-arid environment. Publications of the Inland Geological Society, 2: 1. California, vol 2