Are farmers in low-rainfall cropping regions under-fertilising with nitrogen? A risk analysis

ABARE, 2010. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Farm Costs and Returns, Farm Sector. <http://www.abare.gov.au> (accessed 25.11.11).

Abdullahi, 2003, Estimating risk aversion coefficients for dryland wheat, irrigated corn and dairy producers in Kansas, Appl. Econ., 35, 825, 10.1080/0003648032000050612

Anderson, 1952, Asymptotic theory of certain “goodness-of-fit” criteria based on stochastic processes, Ann. Math. Stat., 23, 193, 10.1214/aoms/1177729437

Anderson, 1977

Angus, 2001, Nitrogen supply and demand in Australian agriculture, Aust. J. Exp. Agric., 41, 277, 10.1071/EA00141

Arrow, 1971, Alternative approaches to the theory of choice in risk-taking situations, Econometrica, 19, 404, 10.2307/1907465

Asseng, 2001, Analysis of water- and nitrogen-use efficiency of wheat in a Mediterranean climate, Plant Soil., 204, 127, 10.1023/A:1010381602223

AWB, 2010. National Pool – Historical Distributions Australian Wheat Board. <http://www.awb.com.au> (accessed 12.07.10).

Babcock, 1992, The effects of uncertainty on optimal nitrogen applications, Rev. Agric. Econ., 14, 271, 10.2307/1349506

Broun, A.N., 2007. Assessing Nitrogen Application Strategies for Wheat Production: A Case Study. Honours Thesis. School of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Crawley, University of Western Australia.

Burk, 2008

Carberry, 2002, Role of modelling in improving nutrient efficiency in cropping systems, Plant Soil, 245, 193, 10.1023/A:1020612416034

Chavas, 1996, Economic behaviour under uncertainty: a joint analysis of risk preferences and technology, Rev. Econ. Stat., 78, 329, 10.2307/2109935

Chen, 2008, Prospects of improving efficiency of fertiliser nitrogen in Australian agriculture: a review of enhanced efficiency fertilisers, Aust. J. Soil Res., 46, 289, 10.1071/SR07197

Cossani, 2010, Co-limitation of nitrogen and water on yield and resource-use efficiencies of wheat and barley, Crop Past. Sci., 61, 844, 10.1071/CP10018

FAO, 2010. Current World Fertiliser Trends and Outlook to 2011–12. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome.

Gandorfer, 2011, Analyzing the effect of risk and uncertainty on optimal tillage and nitrogen intensity for field crops in Germany, Agric. Syst., 104, 615, 10.1016/j.agsy.2011.06.004

Good, 2004, Can less yield more? Is reducing nutrient input into the environment compatible with maintaining crop production?, Trends Plant Sci., 9, 597, 10.1016/j.tplants.2004.10.008

Hardaker, J.B., Lien, G., 2007. Rationalising risk assessment: applications to agricultural business. Aust. Agri. Rev. 15(Paper 6), 75–93.

Hardaker, 2010, Probabilities for decision analysis in agriculture and rural resource economics: the need for a paradigm change, Agric. Syst., 103, 345, 10.1016/j.agsy.2010.01.001

Hardaker, 2004, Stochastic efficiency analysis with risk aversion bounds: a simplified approach, Aust. J. Agric. Res. Econ., 48, 253, 10.1111/j.1467-8489.2004.00239.x

Hardaker, 2004

Hunt, 2011, Re-evaluating the contribution of summer fallow rain to wheat yield in southern Australia, Crop Past. Sci., 62, 915, 10.1071/CP11268

Jones, B., Whitbread, A., 2010. Improved prediction of wheat yield response to nitrogen curves. In: Proceedings of 15th Agronomy Conference, New Zealand, Lincoln.

Just, 1979, Production function estimation and related risk considerations, Am. J. Agric. Econ., 2, 276, 10.2307/1239732

Kandulu, 2012, Mitigating economic risk from climate variability in rain-fed agriculture through enterprise mix diversification, Ecol. Econ., 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.04.025

Keating, 2003, An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation, Eur. J. Agron., 18, 267, 10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00108-9

Kingwell, 1994, Risk attitude and dryland farm management, Agric. Syst., 2, 191, 10.1016/0308-521X(94)90178-I

Kingwell, R.S., 2000. Price risk management for Australian broadacre farmers. Aust. Agribus. Rev. 8(2).

Kingwell, R., 2011. Revenue volatility faced by Australian wheat farmers. In: 55th Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society. Melbourne Convention Centre, Melbourne.

Lambert, 1990, Risk considerations in the reduction of nitrogen fertiliser use in agricultural production, West. J. Agric. Econ., 15, 234

Lawes, 2012, A longitudinal examination of business performance indicators for drought-affected farms, Agric. Syst., 106, 94, 10.1016/j.agsy.2011.10.006

Leathers, 1991, Interactions between agricultural and resource policy: the importance of attitudes toward risk, Am. J. Agric. Econ., 73, 757, 10.2307/1242828

Lien, 2002, Non-parametric estimation of decision makers’ risk aversion, Agric. Econ., 27, 75, 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2002.tb00106.x

Lobell, 2007, The cost of uncertainty for nitrogen fertiliser management: a sensitivity analysis, Field Crops Res., 100, 210, 10.1016/j.fcr.2006.07.007

McDonald, 1989, The contribution of nitrogen fertiliser to the nitrogen nutrition of rainfed wheat crops in Australia: a review, Aust. J. Exp. Agric., 29, 455, 10.1071/EA9890455

McLeod, 1989, An economic evaluation of the impact of conservation-oriented land use regulations on pastoral leases in Mallee landscapes of Western New South Wales, 287

Makeham, 1988

Nidumolu, 2012, Re-evaluating the margin of the South Australian grain belt in a changing climate, Clim. Res., 51, 249, 10.3354/cr01075

Oliver, 2009, Quantifying the benefits of accounting for yield potential in spatially and seasonally responsive nutrient management in a Mediterranean climate, Aust. J. Soil Res., 47, 114, 10.1071/SR08099

Palisade Corporation, 2002. Best Fit, Distribution Fitting for Windows v 4.5, New York.

Pannell, 2000, Are we risking too much? Perspectives on risk in farm modelling, Agric. Econ., 1, 69

Picazo-Tadeo, 2011, Production risk, risk aversion and the determination of risk attitudes among Spanish rice producers, Agric. Econ., 00, 1

Pratt, 1964, Risk aversion in the small and in the large, Econometrica, 32, 122, 10.2307/1913738

Price, P.C., 2009. Nutrient management by the Australian grains industry. Aust. J. Soil Res. 47(1), i–iii.

Probert, 1998, APSIM’s water and nitrogen modules and simulation of the dynamics of water and nitrogen in fallow systems, Agric. Syst., 56, 1, 10.1016/S0308-521X(97)00028-0

Queensland Government, 2012. SILO Climate Data. Department of Environment and Resource Management. <http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo> (accessed 01.05.12).

Quiggin, 1979, Stabilisation and risk reduction in Australian agriculture, Aust. J. Agric. Econ., 23, 191, 10.1111/j.1467-8489.1979.tb00243.x

Rajsic, 2008, Do farmers waste fertilizer? A comparison of ex post optimal nitrogen rates and ex ante recommendations by model, site and year, Agric. Syst., 97, 56, 10.1016/j.agsy.2007.12.001

Rajsic, P., Weersink, A., Gandorfer, M., 2009. Risk and nitrogen application levels. Can. J. Agric. Econ.-Revue Canadienne D’Agroeconomie 57(2), 223–239.

Rayment, 1992

Robertson, M.J., Llewellyn, R.S., Mandel, R., Lawes, R., Bramley, R.G.V., Swift, L., Metz, N., O’Callaghan, C., in press. Adoption of variable rate fertiliser application in the Australian grains industry: status, issues and prospects. Prec. Agric. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11119-011-9236-3.

Rockafellar, 2002, Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions, J. Banking Finance, 26, 1443, 10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00271-6

Roosen, 2003, Tests for the role of risk aversion on input use, Am. J. Agric. Econ., 85, 30, 10.1111/1467-8276.00101

Rural Solutions SA, 2009. Farm Gross Margin and Enterprise Planning Guide: A Gross Margin Template for Crop and Livestock Enterprises 2009.

Rural Solutions SA, 2010. Farm Gross Margin and Enterprise Planning Guide: A Gross Margin Template for Crop and Livestock Enterprises 2010.

Rural Solutions SA, 2011. Farm Gross Margin and Enterprise Planning Guide: A Gross Margin Template for Crop and Livestock Enterprises 2011.

Russell, 1968, Nitrogen fertilizer and wheat in a semi-arid environment. 4. Empirical yield models and economic factors, Aust. J. Exp. Agric., 7, 453, 10.1071/EA9670453

Sadras, 2002, Interaction between rainfall and nitrogen fertilisation of wheat in environments prone to terminal drought: economic and environmental risk analysis, Field Crops Res., 77, 201, 10.1016/S0378-4290(02)00083-7

Sadras, 2005, A quantitative top-down view of interactions between stresses: theory and analysis of nitrogen-water co-limitation in Mediterranean agro-ecosystems, Aust. J. Agric. Res., 56, 1151, 10.1071/AR05073

Sadras, 2010, Modelling the nitrogen-driven trade-off between nitrogen utilisation efficiency and water use efficiency of wheat in eastern Australia, Field Crops Res., 118, 297, 10.1016/j.fcr.2010.06.010

Sadras, 2004, Production and environmental aspects of cropping intensification in a semiarid environment of southeastern Australia, Agron. J., 96, 236, 10.2134/agronj2004.2360

Sadras, 2003, Dynamic cropping strategies for risk management in dry-land farming systems, Agric. Sys., 76, 929, 10.1016/S0308-521X(02)00010-0

Sadras, 2012, Contribution of summer rainfall and nitrogen to the yield and water use efficiency of what in Mediterranean-type environments of South Australia, Eur. J. Agron., 36, 41, 10.1016/j.eja.2011.09.001

Spiertz, J.H.J., 2010. Nitrogen, sustainable agriculture and food security. A review. Agron. Sust. Dev. 30(1), 43–55.

Stephens, 1979, Test of fit for the logistic distribution based on the empirical distribution function, Biometrika, 66, 591, 10.1093/biomet/66.3.591

Uryasev, 2001, Conditional value-at-risk: optimization approach, 411

van Herwaarden, 1998, ‘Haying-off’, the negative grain yield response of dryland wheat to nitrogen fertiliser. I. Biomass, grain yield, and water use, Aust. J. Agric. Res., 49, 1067, 10.1071/A97039

Verburg, 2012, Fallow management in dryland agriculture: explaining soil water accumulation using a pulse paradigm, Field Crops Res., 130, 68, 10.1016/j.fcr.2012.02.016

Whitbread, A., 2010. Karoonda Crop Reports. CSIRO (unpublished).

Whitbread, A., Llewellyn, R., Gobbett, D., Davoren, B., 2008. EM38 and crop-soil simulation modelling can identify differences in potential crop performance on typical soil zones in the Mallee. In: Global Issues, Paddock Action. Australian Society of Agronomy, Adelaide.

Whitbread, A., Llewellyn, R., Davoren, B., 2009. Long Term Yield Potential and in-Season Management of Different Mallee Soils-the Bimbie Example. Loxton, CSIRO-Rural Solutions-Mallee Focus-MSF project.

Zadoks, 1974, A decimal code for the growth stages of cereals, Weed Res., 14, 415, 10.1111/j.1365-3180.1974.tb01084.x