Applications and future challenges in marine species distribution modeling

Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems - Tập 21 Số 1 - Trang 92-100 - 2011
Johannes Dambach1, Dennis Rödder2
1Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Department for Molecular Biodiversity and Herpetology, Adenauerallee 160, 53113 Bonn, Germany
2Biogeography Department, Trier University, Am Wissenschaftspark 25+27, 54296 Trier, Germany

Tóm tắt

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change affects both phenology and distribution patterns of the world's biota including marine species. During the last decade, species distribution models have been more frequently used to assess the potential distributions of species and possible effects of climate change. However, unlike for terrestrial species, there have been few investigations assessing climate change effects on distribution patterns of marine organisms. An overview of marine species distribution modelling is given. Possibilities of how to characterize and project the environmental niches of species onto climatic change scenarios are highlighted and novel techniques for addressing specific needs in a 3‐D context are proposed. A detailed introduction into different modelling tools and databases for environmental parameters given provides a starting point for the application of these models. Application of a species distribution model and its projections onto a glacial and future scenario on a global scale are presented for the great white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) for illustrative purposes. An approach for addressing marine migratory species with seasonal distribution patterns is presented. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

AmanteC EakinsBW.2009.ETOPO1 1 Arc‐Minute Global Relief Model: Procedures Data Sources and Analysis. NOAA Technical Memorandum NESDIS NGDC‐24 Boulder Colorado 19 pp.

Antonov JI, 2010, World Ocean Atlas 2009, Volume 2: Salinity

10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00828.x

10.1016/j.tree.2006.09.010

10.1603/0046-225X(2007)36[1365:ENISGO]2.0.CO;2

10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01231.x

10.1098/rspb.2007.1153

10.1126/science.1114898

10.3354/ab00217

10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.11.022

10.1023/A:1010933404324

Breiman L, 1984, Classification and Regression Trees

Burnham KP, 2002, Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: a Practical Information‐Theoretic Approach

Busby JR, 1991, Nature Conservation: Cost Effective Biological Surveys and Data Analysis, 64

10.1007/BF00051966

10.1175/1520-0485(2000)030<0311:ASODAA>2.0.CO;2

10.1109/TGRS.2006.878445

Cheung WWL, 2008, Modelling Present and Climate‐shifted Distribution of Marine Fishes and Invertebrates

10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x

Compagno LJV, 2005, Sharks of the World

COSEWIC, 2006, COSEWIC Assessment and Status Report on the White Shark Carcharodon carcharias (Atlantic and Pacific populations) in Canada

De Maddalena A, 2000, Historical and contemporary presence of the great white shark Carcharodon carcharias (Linnaeus, 1758), in the Northern and Central Adriatic Sea, Annals for Istran and Mediterranean Studies/Series historia naturalis, 10, 3

10.3354/meps07628

10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01488.x

10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x

10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159

10.1111/j.1472-4642.2009.00566.x

10.1214/aos/1176347963

10.1890/1051-0761(2003)013[0032:ACOIMR]2.0.CO;2

Garcia HE, 2010, World Ocean Atlas 2009 Volume 3: Dissolved Oxygen, Apparent Oxygen Utilization, and Oxygen Saturation

Garcia HE, 2010, World Ocean Atlas 2009, Volume 4: Nutrients (phosphate, nitrate, and silicate)

Gaylord B, 2000, Temperature or transport?, Range limits in marine species mediated solely by flow. American Naturalist, 155, 769

10.1007/s10530-007-9154-5

10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.17630.x

10.1111/j.1365-2664.2007.01408.x

10.1016/S0006-3207(03)00190-3

10.1890/06-0539

10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00871.x

Hastie TJ, 1990, Generalized Additive Models

10.1080/01621459.1994.10476866

10.1177/0309133306071957

10.1111/j.0906-7590.2006.04700.x

10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01518.x

10.1016/j.fishres.2007.11.025

10.1196/annals.1439.002

10.17161/bi.v6i1.1634

10.3354/meps316285

KaschnerK ReadyJ AgbayaniE RiusJ Kesner‐ReyesK EastwoodPD SouthAB KullanderS ReesT CloseCH et al.(eds).2008. AquaMaps Environmental Dataset Half‐Degree Cells Authority File (HCAF).

10.1890/03-0820

10.1111/j.0906-7590.2008.05457.x

10.1029/2004GB002247

Klimley AP, 1996, Great White Sharks: the Biology of Carcharodon carcharias

10.1016/j.tree.2008.02.001

10.1126/science.1155193

10.1890/08-0823.1

10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01424.x

Locarnini RA, 2010, World Ocean Atlas 2009, Volume 1: Temperature

10.1098/rspb.2002.2091

10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00491.x

10.1098/rspb.2003.2564

10.1007/978-1-4899-3242-6

10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00281.x

10.1371/journal.pone.0008163

10.1111/j.1466-8238.2009.00476.x

O'Hara TD, 2008, Bioregionalisation of the waters around Lord Howe and Norfolk Islands using brittle stars (Echinodermata: Ophiuroidea)

10.1073/pnas.2331584100

10.1111/j.0014-3820.2006.tb01872.x

10.1029/2002PA000783

10.1111/j.0269-8463.2004.00903.x

10.1126/science.1111322

10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00347.x

Peterson AT, 2007, Ecological niche conservatism and pleistocene refugia in the Thrush‐like Mourner, Shiffornis sp., in the Neotropics, Evolution, 62, 173

10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0363:PSIUEN]2.0.CO;2

10.1111/j.0906-7590.2008.5203.x

10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026

10.1126/science.1135471

10.2307/1937366

10.5194/os-4-49-2008

10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.10.025

10.1017/CBO9780511812651

Rödder D, 2009, Human Footprint, facilitated jump dispersal, and the potential distribution of the invasive Eleutherodactylus johnstonei Barbour 1914 (Anura: Eleutherodactylidae), Tropical Zoology, 22, 205

Rödder D, 2009, Relict Species: Phylogeography and Conservation Biology

10.2984/64.1.011

10.1371/journal.pone.0007843

Rödder D, 2010, Molecules meet macroecology – combining species distribution models and phylogeographic studies, Zootaxa, 2426, 54, 10.11646/zootaxa.2426.1.3

10.1007/s11160-004-6749-0

10.1098/rspb.2009.0742

Sax DF, 2008, Ecological and evolutionary insights from species invasions, Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 22, 465, 10.1016/j.tree.2007.06.009

10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.11.006

10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01107.x

10.17161/bi.v2i0.4

10.1126/science.156.3772.257

10.1080/136588199241391

10.1126/science.1159328

10.1038/nature02121

10.1111/j.1600-0587.2008.05742.x

10.1111/j.1365-2699.2008.02062.x

10.1111/j.1365-2699.2008.01959.x

Waltari E, 2007, Locating pleistocene refugia: comparing phylogeographic and ecological niche model predictions, PLoS ONE, 7, 1

10.1007/s00227-007-0739-4

10.3354/meps338211

10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00482.x