Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America - Tập 112 Số 13 - Trang 3931-3936 - 2015
Noah S. Diffenbaugh1,2, Daniel L. Swain3, Danielle Touma3
1Department of Environmental Earth System Science and; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305
2Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;
3Department of Environmental Earth System Science and

Tóm tắt

Significance California ranks first in the United States in population, economic activity, and agricultural value. The state is currently experiencing a record-setting drought, which has led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Our analyses show that California has historically been more likely to experience drought if precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and that such confluences have increased in recent decades, leading to increases in the fraction of low-precipitation years that yield drought. In addition, we find that human emissions have increased the probability that low-precipitation years are also warm, suggesting that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of the co-occurring warm–dry conditions that have created the current California drought.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

; US Census Bureau State and County QuickFacts Available at https://www.census.gov/quickfacts. (2014).

; US Bureau of Economic Analysis Bureau of Economic Analysis Interactive Data Available at www.bea.gov/. (2014).

; US Department of Agriculture CALIFORNIA Agricultural Statistics 2012 Crop Year Available at www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/California_Ag_Statistics/Reports/2012cas-all.pdf. (2013).

10.1038/35002501

E Hanak, Managing California’s Water: From Conflict to Reconciliation (Public Policy Institute of California, San Francisco, 2011).

; California Energy Commission California Energy Almanac Available at www.energyalmanac.ca.gov/. (2014).

; US National Climate Data Center National Climate Data Center NNDC Climate Data Online Available at www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp. (2014).

DL Swain, , The extraordinary California drought of 2013-2014: Character, context, and the role of climate change. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 95, S3–S7 (2014).

10.1002/2014GL059748

H Wang, S Schubert, Causes of the extreme dry conditions over California during early 2013. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 95, S7–S11 (2014).

C Funk, A Hoell, D Stone, Examining the contribution of the observed global warming trend to the California droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/2014. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 95, S11–S15 (2014).

10.1002/2014GL062433

10.1002/2014GL062308

10.1038/503350a

10.1002/wcc.81

10.1038/nclimate1633

10.1175/JHM-386.1

10.1029/2010GL046442

10.1126/science.1260279

J Christian-Smith, M Levy, P Gleick, Maladaptation to drought: A case report from California. Sustain Sci, 2014).

10.1126/science.1128834

10.1029/2006JB004448

; US Energy Information Administration California drought leads to less hydropower increased natural gas generation. Today in Energy Available at www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=182. (2014).

10.1007/s00267-009-9329-1

; US National Climate Data Center nClimDiv STATEWIDE-REGIONAL-NATIONAL DROUGHT Available at ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cirs/climdiv/drought-readme.txt. (2014).

WC Palmer Meteorological Drought (US Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau, Washington, DC, 1965).

TR Heddinghaus P Sabol in Proceedings of the Seventh Conference on Applied Climatology (American Meteorological Society Boston). (1991).

10.1038/nclimate2208

10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1

R Seager Causes and Predictability of the 2011-14 California Drought Available at cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/MAPP/Task%20Forces/DTF/californiadrought/california_drought_report.pdf. (2014).

10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00514.1

10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00153.1

10.1175/JAS-D-13-0325.1

10.1002/2013JD020383

10.1029/2008GL034424

10.1002/jgrd.50816

10.1002/2013WR014541

10.1029/2010GL043888

10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00282.1

10.1126/sciadv.1400082

10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00100.1

10.1002/2014GL061661

10.1038/nature11575

10.1073/pnas.0506042102

10.1029/2011JD016458

10.1002/jgrd.50773

P Romero-Lankao, , Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: Regional aspects. Contribution of working group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Climate Change, eds VR Barros, (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK), pp. 1439–1498 (2014).

10.1175/1520-0477-83.8.1149

10.1175/1520-0450(1986)025<0077:TSOTPD>2.0.CO;2

10.1029/2010JD015001

10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

10.1038/nclimate1385

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Tập 112 Số 13

3931-3936

Thông tin tác giả