Anomaly-based synoptic analysis to identify and predict meteorological conditions of strong ozone events in North China
Tóm tắt
Severe surface ozone (SO) pollution is a major weather extreme during hot summer season in China. In previous studies, many synoptic patterns or weather types described by different meteorological variables are interconnected to use in explaining the formation of SO pollution under a determined emission of precursors. Here, we first identify the top 20 SO events which happened in North China during the summer (May–August) from 2014 to 2019. Then, an approach of anomaly-based synoptic analysis is used to establish the relationship between the anomalous synoptic pattern (ASP) and strong SO events based on four case analyses. The result showed that a strong SO event is directly associated with a near surface inversion of temperature anomalies satisfying the hydrostatic balance with geopotential anomalies at the lower troposphere. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model can successfully predict this ASP with lead times of 144 h for the strongest case. The advantages of this approach include its ability to visually identify the location of a SO event through pinpointing possible meteorological conditions and extend the SO forecast length by the earlier ASP detection.
Tài liệu tham khảo
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