Analysis of the Potential Economic Viability of Shale Gas Resources in Europe
Tóm tắt
European countries are currently exploring strategies to ensure a strong level of security of energy supply while decreasing its reliance on natural gas imports. With the strong surge in shale gas developments in the USA, similar ambitions have been the ongoing subject of inquiry in Europe. Detailed knowledge about extraction costs is a key issue in determining future shale gas investments in Europe. The paper at hand analyses the potential of European shale gas resources, highlighting their competitiveness against conventional natural gas. It examines the current volume of shale gas resources in Europe and performs a detailed cost calculation to provide an estimation of shale gas production costs. The results indicate that under current market conditions the repetition of the US shale gas boom is by all measures improbable in Europe. Furthermore, in the case that natural prices were to return to historically higher levels, only a few highly productive shale gas formations would be economically competitive.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Aciep (2013) Evaluación preliminar de los recursos prospectivos de hidrocarburos convencionales y no convencionales en España. http://aciep.com/sites/default/files/informe_de_sintesis_version_resumida-1_1_0.pdf. Accessed 28 Oct 2014
Andrews IJ (2013) The Carboniferous Bowland Shale gas study: geology and resource estimation. British Geological Survey for Department of Energy and Climate Change, London
Andrews IJ (2014) The Jurassic shales of the Weald Basin: geology and shale oil and shale gas resource estimation. British Geological Survey for Department of Energy and Climate Change, London
Attansi ED, Freeman PA (2011) Economic Analysis of the 2010 U.S. Geological Survey Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska. United States Geological Survey, Reston VA
Berman AE, Pittinger LF (2011) U.S. Shale Gas: Less Abundance, Higher Cost. http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8212. Accessed 18 Oct 2014
BGR (2012) Abschätzung des Erdgaspotenzials aus dichten Tongesteinen (Schiefergas) in Deutschland. Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Hannover
Boem, 2011. Assessment of Undiscovered Technically Recoverable Oil and Gas Resources of the Nation’s Outer Continental Shelf, BOEM Fact Sheet RED-2011-01a.
Bomberg E (2017) Fracking and framing in transatlantic perspective: a comparison of shale politics in the US and European Union. J Transatl Stud 4(2):101–120. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14794012.2016.1268789
Chew K (2014) Shale Gas and Shale Liquids Plays in Europe, Report for AAPG Energy Minerals Division, Tulsa, USA
Chyong CK, Reiner DM (2015) Economics and politics of shale gas in Europe. Econ Energy Environ Policy 4(1):69–83. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.4.1.cchy
Coleman JL, Milici RC, Cook TA, Charpentier RR, Kirschbaum H, Klett TR (2011) Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the Devonian Marcellus shale of the Appalachian basin province. US Geological Survey, Reston VA
Craine ER (2014) Crain’s petrophysical handbook – Reserves from decline curve analysis. http://www.spec2000.net/16-decline.htm. Accessed 27 Nov 2014
Darbouche, H. & Fattouh, B., 2011. The Implications of the Arab Uprisings for Oil and Gas Markets. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Paper MEP 2.
European Energy Exchange (2013) Marktdaten Erdgas Spotmarkt TTF. https://www.eex.com/de/marktdaten/. Accessed 12 Apr 2016
EIA (2012) Annual energy outlook. Energy Information Administration, Washington DC
EIA (2013) Technically recoverable shale oil and shale gas resources: an assessment of 137 shale formations in 41 countries outside the United States. http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/. Accessed 5 Oct 2014
Engleder T, Lash GG (2009) Report card on the breakout year for gas production in the Appalachian. Ft Worth Basin Oil Gas Mag 1(1):19–22
Eurogas (2015) New Eurogas data confirms dynamic EU gas market, press release number 15p121, 25th March 2015. http://www.eurogas.org/uploads/media/Eurogas_Press_Release_-_New_Eurogas_data_confirms_dynamic_EU_gas_market.pdf. Accessed 12 Apr 2016
Fekete (2014) Traditional Decline Analysis Theory. http://www.fekete.com/SAN/WebHelp/FeketeHarmony/Harmony_WebHelp/Content/HTML_Files/Reference_Material/Analysis_Method_Theory/Traditional_Decline_Theory.htm#Arps_Production_Decline_Equation_Summary. Accessed 27 Nov 2014
Gautier, D. L., Charpentier, R. R., Gaswirth, S. B., Klett, T. R., Pitman, J. K., Schenk, C. J., Tennyson, M. E. & Whidden, K. J., 2013. Undiscovered Gas Resources in the Alum Shale, Denmark: U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2013 – No 3103.
Gautier DL, Schovsbo NH, Nielsen AT (2014) Resource Potential of the Alum Shale in Denmark, URTeC: 1931754. Unconventional Resources Technology Conference (URTeC), Denver CO
Gény F (2010) Can unconventional gas be a game changer in European gas markets? NG 46. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Oxford
van de Graaf T, Haesebrouck T, Debaere P (2017) Fractured Politics? The comparative regulation of shale gas in Europe. Journal of European Public Policy. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2017.1301985
Gusev A (2014) Shale gas: what it could really mean for Europe. http://www.energypost.eu/shale-gas-really-mean-europe/. Accessed 21 Oct 2014
Endex ICE (2015) ICE Report Center. https://www.theice.com/marketdata/reports/. Accessed 12 Apr 2016
IEA (2014) Natural Gas Information (2014 edition). International Energy Agency, Paris
INTEK (2011) Review of emerging resources: U.S. shale gas and shale oil plays 2011. INTEK, Washington DC
Johnson C, Boersma T (2013) Energy (in)security in Poland the case of shale gas. Energy Policy 53:389–399. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.10.068
Kuhn M, Umbach F (2011) Strategic perspectives of unconventional gas: A game changer with implications for the EU’s energy security, Strategic paper of European Centre for Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS). King’s College London, London
Lee DS, Herman JD, Elsworth D, Kim HT, Lee HS (2011) A critical evaluation of unconventional gas recovery from the Marcellus shale, northeastern United States. J Civ Eng 15(4):679–687
Mazur K (2012) Economics of shale gas. http://www.energycentral.com/c/gn/economics-shale-gas. Accessed 4 July 2017
McGlade C, Speirs J, Sorrell S (2013) Methods of estimating shale gas resources – Comparison, evaluation and implications. Energy 59(1):116–125
Monaghan AA (2014) The Carboniferous shales of the Midland Valley of Scotland: geology and resource estimation. British Geological Survey for Department of Energy and Climate Change, London
Natural Gas Europe (2013) Poland updates shale gas exploratory well count. http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/poland-updates-shale-gas-exploratory-well-count. Accessed 26 Nov 2014
Natural Gas Europe (2014) Shale Gas in Europe: We don’t know what’s down there. http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/shale-gas-in-europe-iogp. Accessed 25 Jan 2015
Nick S, Thoenes S (2013) What drives natural gas prices? – A structural VAR approach. Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI), Cologne
Osička J, Ocelík P, Dančák B (2016) The impact of Polish unconventional production on the regional distribution of natural gas supply and transit: A scenario analysis. Energy Strategy Rev 10:1–17
Pearson I, Zeniewski P, Gracewa F, Zastora P, McGlade C, Sorrel S, Speirs J, Thonhauser G (2012) Unconventional Gas: Potential Energy Market Impacts in the European Union, Joint Research Center of the European commission, Scientific and Policy Reports, Petten
Pirani S, Stern J, Yafimava K (2014) What the Ukraine crisis means for gas markets. The Oxford Insitute for Energy Studies, Oxford
Pirani S, Stern J, Yafimava K (2009) The Russo-Ukrainian gas dispute of January 2009: A comprehensive assessment. Paper NG 27. The Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, Oxford
PGI (2012) Assessment of shale gas and shale oil resources of the Lower Paleozoic Baltic-Podlasie-Lublin Basin in Poland. Polish Geological Institute – National Research Institute, Warsaw
Reuters (2016) Polish firms concede defeat in search for shale gas riches. http://www.reuters.com/article/poland-gas-shale-idUSL8N1CI3PF. Accessed 15 May 2017
Rogner HH (1997) An assessment of world hydrocarbon resources. Annu Rev Inc 22(1):217–262
Seeliger A (2016) Lessons to Learn? Rückblick auf 10 Jahre “Schiefergasrevolution” in den USA und Bestandsaufnahme für Europa. Z Energiewirtschaft 40(3):159–170
Slingerland S (2014) Economic impact of shale gas in the Netherlands. Triple E Consulting – Energy, Environment & Economics B.V., Rotterdam
Stern J, Yafimava K (2017) The EU Competition Investigation into Gazprom’s Sales to Central and Eastern Europe: a comment on commitments. The Oxford Insitute for Energy Studies, Oxford Energy Comment
TNO, 2009. Inventory non-conventional gas. TNO report, TNO-034-UT-2009-00774/B.
USGS, 2012. Potential for Technically Recoverable Unconventional Gas and Oil Resources in the Polish-Ukrainian Foredeep, Poland, Fact Sheet 2012 – No 3102.
Veliciu S, Popescu B (2012) Are the paleozoic plays the future of unconventional gas in Romania? – An attempt of assessing the resource. In Oil Forum, Presentation
Weijermars R (2013) Economic appraisal of shale gas plays in Continental Europe. Appl Energy 1(1):100–115